It’s finally here.
The Miami Heat avoided giving up the greatest comebacks in NBA history and will face the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals on Thursday, June 1. The Heat are just the second eight-seed to make the Finals since the playoffs expanded to 16 teams in 1984. They join the 1999 New York Knicks, who lost in five games to the San Antonio Spurs.
This is Miami’s seventh NBA Finals appearance since their first in 2006, the most of any team in that span. On the other hand, top-seeded Denver will make their first appearance in the Finals in franchise history — led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets currently sit at -400 to win the series, the second-largest odds to win the Finals in the last 16 seasons.
With all this in mind, FOX Sports Research took a deep dive into various historical betting trends to give you the information necessary to make some profitable wagers during the Finals. Let’s take a look at what the data says for teams both against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU)!
Don’t be surprised if the Heat cover but the Nuggets win
The Heat are currently a whopping nine-point underdog for Game 1, a massive spread for a Finals team that took down the likes of the Boston Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks. Since 1991, teams that are seven-to-nine–point underdogs in the NBA Finals are 18-9-1 ATS (66.7%).
The Heat are also the third team since 1988 to make the NBA Finals and be an underdog in each round, joining the 1995 Houston Rockets and 1999 Knicks. That being said, if you’re looking to bet on the outright winner of Game 1, it will likely be Denver. The home team is 21-11 ATS (65.6%) and 25-7 SU (78.1%) in Game 1 of the NBA Finals since 1991.
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It’s worth noting that the Nuggets’ road hasn’t been a particularly difficult one. Denver is the fourth team to reach the NBA Finals and never face a team with a win percentage of 55% or above in the playoffs — joining the 1956 Warriors, 1957 Celtics, and 1959 Celtics.
Teams with more rest tend to cover the spread
While we just told you the Heat have a great shot at covering the spread, we’d be remiss if we didn’t present the data on teams with ample rest. The Nuggets played their last game on May 22nd, giving them nine days of rest before Game 1. Over the past 15 seasons, when a team with a week-plus of rest plays a team coming off four or fewer days of rest in Game 1 of the Conference or NBA Finals, the more rested team is 9-4 ATS (69.2%).
When looking at the entire playoffs overall, teams with a week-plus of rest playing teams coming off four or fewer days of rest went 24-15 ATS (61.5%) and 28-11 SU (71.8%) from 2005 to 2022. Favorites in that span went 23-6 SU (79.3%), further amplifying our above trend of a Nuggets win.
Take the Under in Game 1
Simply put, the Under historically hits in the NBA Finals. Since 1991, the Under has hit in 97 of 176 Finals games with four pushes in that span (56.4%). When looking at Game 1 specifically, the Under has hit 19 of 32 times (59.4%) since 1991.
It’s also worth noting that the Heat were dead-last scoring during the regular season in points per game at 109.5, the only team not to average 110. They are just the third team in NBA history to rank last in points per game during the regular season and reach the NBA Finals.
Eric Spoelstra historically covers
Much of the talk of the playoffs has been about the coaching expertise that Eric Spoelstra has demonstrated. To put it in perspective, “Spo” as he is commonly referred to, has played seven undrafted players this postseason — the most undrafted players to play in a single postseason for a team that made the Finals since the 1966-67 season. This year Spoelstra will go up against Mike Malone, who has never been to the Finals despite leading Denver to their first in franchise history.
Here’s a breakdown of how Spo has performed in various situations from a betting perspective.
- Spoelstra is 141-112 ATS (55.7%) as an underdog in the regular season since the 2015-16 season
- Spoelstra is 30-24 ATS (55.6%) as an underdog in the playoffs since the 2015-16 season
- Spoelstra is 26-12 ATS (68.4%) as a seven-to-nine-point underdog in both the playoffs and regular season combined since the 2015-16 season
- Spoelstra is 7-1 ATS (87.5%) and 6-2 SU (75%) as a seven-to-nine-point underdog in the playoffs since the 2019-20 season
- Spoelstra is 7-7-1 ATS (50%) as an underdog in the NBA Finals in his head coaching career
- Spoelstra is 14-14-1 ATS (50%) and 13-16 SU (44.8%) in the NBA Finals in his head coaching career
Nikola Jokic should dominate, record a triple-double in Game 1
Arguably the biggest reason why the Nuggets are such heavy favorites to win it all is because of the absolute dominance of Nikola Jokic. The Serbian big man has been on an absolute tear and should continue to assert himself against Miami.
He is currently a whopping -303 favorite to win Finals MVP, but the real value lies in him recording a triple-double in Game 1. Most sportsbooks are offering that bet at between +100 and +120, a considerable value given the fact he is averaging one this postseason.
Take a look at some interesting nuggets on him below.
- Jokic is averaging a triple-double this postseason, putting up 29.9 PPG, 13.3 RPG, and 10.3 APG
- Jokic recorded four straight 20-point triple-doubles at one point these playoffs, the first player to do this in NBA postseason history
- Jokic has recorded six 30-point triple-doubles in the playoffs in his career, tied for the third most all-time
- Jokic has recorded four triple-doubles against the Heat in his career, and averages 20.2 PPG, 11.1 RPG, and 6.3 APG against them in 16 career meetings
- Jokic has recorded 14 triple-doubles in the playoffs in his career, the third most of any player all-time
- Jokic has recorded 105 triple-doubles in his career, the sixth most of any player all-time (regular season)
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