2023 NFL odds: Will Tyreek Hill be first in 2,000-yard receiving club?

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Tyreek Hill recently claimed on his podcast “It Needed To Be Said” that he will rack up 2,000 receiving yards in 2023 for the Miami Dolphins. If he is able to pull it off, he would be the first wideout to ever do so in the regular season.

So as bettors, this got us thinking.

Hill and Jaylen Waddle give the Dolphins a formidable wide receiver duo, which is good and bad for Hill as he attempts to back up his claim. It’s good that opposing defenses have to pay attention to both stars and can’t double-team Hill as often. However, it’s bad because there’s only so many throws quarterback Tua Tagovailoa can make to his wideouts, and Waddle figures to get a decent amount (Hill had 1,710 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season, while Waddle had 1,356).

Let’s take a look at the odds:

Tyreek Hill’s Over/Under 1,300.5 receiving yards in 2023*

Over: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Under: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)

Odds to lead league in receiving yards

Justin Jefferson, Vikings: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total)
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Cooper Kupp, Rams: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Davante Adams, Raiders: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)

Odds to have 1,500-plus receiving yards

Justin Jefferson, Vikings: +150 (bet $10 to win $25 total)
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Davante Adams, Raiders: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals: +250 (bet $10 to win $35 total)
Cooper Kupp, Rams: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)

* odds as of 7/18/2023

Now, let’s get the thoughts of FOX Sports NFL Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams is the only wide receiver to achieve a 2,000-yard receiving season (2021), but that included the postseason. Kupp had 1,947 yards in the regular season and 478 yards in four postseason games for a total of 2,425 yards.

Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions holds the record for regular-season receiving yards, with 1,964 in 2012.

PICK Via FOX Sports NFL Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

Despite what Hill proclaims, he is not going to reach 2,000 yards in any season, let alone this upcoming one.

No receiver has ever broken the 2,000-yard mark in a single season, with Johnson getting the closest in 2012. He tallied 122 receiving yards per game over a 16-game season, which is 22 more yards per game than Hill had last season in 17 games. That was the highest per game total of Hill’s career, and he was nearly 300 yards short of 2,000. Also, the Dolphins’ offense is not designed to target Hill enough to get to this number.

I’m generally going to wager the Under for any receiving or rushing prop, as injuries can derail these props. Just miss a game or two, and you’re losing it. However, I feel comfortable wagering on Hill to get Over 1,300.5 receiving yards this season. He’s only been over that number twice in his career, but you’re getting a number that’s 410 yards less than he had last season, when his quarterback only played in 12 of their 17 games.

The Dolphins’ offense is diverse and has so many weapons that teams can’t always double-team Hill, which gives him opportunities for those explosive plays. Tagovailoa doesn’t have the strongest arm, but the offense puts Tua in great positions to make those throws, and he’s been accurate when letting it go.

I’d take the Over here.

PICK: Tyreek Hill +105 Over 1,300.5 receiving yards (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)

Follow along on FOX Sports for the latest on NFL news as we head toward the 2023 season.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!

in this topic