When it comes to NFL betting markets, Super Bowl futures are often where fans and bettors try their luck. But what about teams on the other end of the spectrum with the worst records? What are their odds of landing the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft because of a stinky season?
Well, you are in luck because a sportsbook has put out betting odds for which team could land the first pick in the upcoming draft.
Which team will earn the distinction of having the worst record in the NFL in 2023 and ultimately a chance at having the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2024?
Let’s dive into the odds, and some betting insight from FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz.
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TOP 20 NFL WORST RECORD ODDS*
Arizona Cardinals: +340 (bet $10 to win $44)
Houston Texans: +900 (bet $10 to win $100)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +950 (bet $10 to win $105)
Los Angeles Rams: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110)
Washington Commanders: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140)
Las Vegas Raiders: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140)
Indianapolis Colts: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150)
Chicago Bears: +1900 (bet $10 to win $200)
New England Patriots: +1900 (bet $10 to win $200)
Carolina Panthers: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210)
Tennessee Titans: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210)
Denver Broncos: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260)
New York Giants: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260)
Atlanta Falcons: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310)
Pittsburgh Steelers: +3200 (bet $10 to win $330)
Los Angeles Chargers: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410)
Green Bay Packers: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410)
Seattle Seahawks: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410)
Minnesota Vikings: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410)
Cleveland Browns: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460)
*odds as of 07/12/2023
Take the Over or Under on Cardinals, Colts, Texans win totals?
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The Arizona Cardinals (+340) come in as the betting favorite to claim the top pick with the projected worst record in the NFL. Will the Cards stick with quarterback Kyler Murray after next season or spend their top pick on a new franchise QB by drafting Caleb Williams out of USC?
Second, in the odds to land the No. 1 pick are the Texans. Houston selected its quarterback of the future in C.J. Stroud, so that will be an interesting team to keep their eyes on. Do they add more talent and take the best player available? Or will they trade out of the spot to teams wanting Williams for a haul?
Picks via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:
Arizona Cardinals +340
Picking the favorite is boring, but that pick can still win you money. There are two ingredients for having the worst record in football, and the Cardinals have both.
The first is having a poor roster void of playmakers. Players and coaches prepare to win every single game, but if you do not have better players, you just aren’t winning many games. Winning and losing in the NFL can be that simple. The Cardinals roster is mostly without impact playmakers.
The second ingredient for having the worst record in the NFL is having bad quarterbacks, and right now, the Cardinals have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league to start the season. Kyler Murray is recovering from knee surgery, and reports suggest he could miss half the season. The healthy arms right now are Colt McCoy, Clayton Tune, Jeff Driskel and David Blough.
On top of that, I could see the Cardinals deciding to keep Murray out all year to ensure they have the worst record in the league. Arizona is not winning more than three games.
PICK: Cardinals (+340) to have worst record
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +950
It’s hard to figure out exactly what the goal of the Bucs is this season. They appear to be rebuilding on the fly with a roster combining new and old players.
Tampa Bay returns most of its receiving core, but the depth behind the starters is scarce. The offensive line returns two starters from the line that opened camp last season, with one of them moving from right to left tackle. On defense, the Bucs have a combination of some young and old guys, putting together a unit that’s balanced with experience and youth.
The team’s overall roster doesn’t appear bad enough to be the worst team in the league. However, they are not good at quarterback, and that is what’s most important. Baker Mayfield is the presumed starter, and he was 2-8 in that position last season. Behind him are Kyle Trask and John Wolford. They have a bottom-five quarterback roster, and I’d expect them to start losing quickly if there are any injuries.
Also, Tampa Bay could be motivated to lose because USC’s Caleb Williams is the quarterback sitting atop the 2024 NFL draft board.
PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+950) to have worst record
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Las Vegas Raiders +1300
Josh McDaniels has not been a good head coach in the NFL. His Raiders went 6-11 in 2022, bringing his overall coaching record to 17-28 in three seasons.
Now the Raiders have downgraded at the QB position from Derek Carr to Jimmy G and Brian Hoyer as options No. 1 and No. 2. It’s hard to fathom Jimmy staying healthy for an entire season, especially behind the Raiders’ offensive line.
Las Vegas has an elite pass rusher in Maxx Crosby, but what else does the defense have? It’s been awful for years, and we should not expect anything better in 2023. If the Broncos are better this year with Sean Payton, the Raiders will finish fourth in the division.
It’s a long shot, but the Raiders could end up being the worst team in the NFL.
PICK: Las Vegas Raiders (+1300) to have worst record
So where are you placing your bet for next season’s worst team in the NFL? Stay tuned to FOX Sports as the unpredictable season unfolds!
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