2023 Cincinnati Bengals Over/Under win total odds, predictions, picks

Chris Fallica

FOX Sports Wagering Expert

Martin Rogers

FOX Sports Insider

With the NFL season set to begin, FOX Sports gambling experts and NFL writers are looking at the Over/Under for every team in the league. Check back daily to see predictions on where your team will finish the regular season!

September’s presence, mere days away, and the air turning crisp can only mean one thing … NFL football is back, baby!

Now that sportsbooks have dropped Over/Under win totals for every team in the league, it’s time to dive into the fun and look at the numbers from a betting perspective.

Can the Cincinnati Bengals eclipse their win total of 10.5?

Here is how our FOX Sports talent sees the Bengals’ season playing out.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Chris “The Bear” Fallica: Bengals Under 11.5 wins

This division should be much better in 2023, and that likely means a reduction in season wins for the Bengals, who have won 10 and 12 games over the last two years, with eight of those wins coming by five points or fewer. That means Cincinnati has had quite a bit of good fortune in close games, as well as luck with injuries and facing backup QBs. Taking a step back, even the Bengals’ playoff runs have been graced with good fortune, winning all three games in 2021’s run to the Super Bowl with a lot of luck. That continued last year with the win over the Ravens. Yes, it’s true, you make your own luck, but at the same time, it has to run out at some point, right?

Maybe the calf injury to Joe Burrow is an early sign things might be different for the Bengals this year. We all hope he returns fully healthy, but calves can be tough injuries to fully heal without a lot of rest.

Out of the division, Cincinnati plays on the road against San Francisco, Jacksonville and Kansas City. They also have a home matchup with the Bills. That is a loaded schedule.

Cincinnati also lost three secondary starters, including both safeties, so that has to have an effect, too, no? Everyone is really high on the Bengals after the last two years, and sure, it makes sense. However, this is a case of when everyone zigs, I will zag. In a tough AFC, there might be a little flyer to be had on the “No” for the Bengals’ playoff prop.

Pick via FOX Sports Columnist Martin Rogers: Bengals Over 11.5 wins

If not now, then when? Cincinnati is poised to be a contender for years to come, but we say that about a lot of teams, and it doesn’t always work out that way. The Bengals have had big opportunities the past two years, reaching a Super Bowl and the AFC Championship Game, and might feel this year constitutes their best chance of all. Joe Burrow’s summer calf injury looks like it will not be a lingering issue, and he’ll be stoutly protected by mega-money signing Orlando Brown Jr. Burrow is due for a huge payday of his own soon enough, which will require some salary cap gymnastics, but that’s a point for another day.

A positive move on that front was Joe Mixon signing on a pay cut, but time will tell if this is the last season of Burrow having Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to throw to.

On defense, confusion was the key last year, the switching, slippery D flustering most of the AFC’s top QBs with their myriad tactics.

Home-field advantage in the postseason might be just the tonic to get the Bengals back to the promised land. They’ll need the Over to have a shot at it.

FOX Sports Research Nuggets

7-6 (Over-Under) since 2010
Since 2015, has won 12 or more games once (last season — won 12)

2022 In Review

Overall: 12-4, first in AFC North
Home record: 6-1
Road record: 6-3
Divisional record: 3-3
Point differential: +96 (sixth in NFL)
Points per game: 26.1 (seventh in NFL)
Yards per game: 360.5 (eighth in NFL)
Opponent points per game: 20.1 (T-fifth in NFL)
Opponent yards per game: 335.7 (16th)

What to Know

Head Coach: Zac Taylor, fifth season (28-36-1 with Bengals)
2023 Strength of Schedule: .510 (16th-easiest in NFL)

Key Additions

Key Subtractions

Win Totals From Last 5 Years

2022: 12
2021: 10
2020: 4
2019: 2
2018: 6

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.