2023 NFL odds: Betting on Steelers, Browns starters, other best preseason Week 3 bets

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

I’m riding hot in the preseason and hope to see it continue with a final weekend of NFL action before the regular season begins.

The final week of the preseason is all about matchups.

Are starters going to play or not? Pay attention to local beat writers with reports from coaches about playing time.

I highlighted two games where I see that giving us an edge, plus added one coaching matchup I like.

Let’s dive into the action.

Steelers at Falcons (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Once again, we look toward the comments of the respective coaches for guidance on wagers this weekend.

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has played his starting offense for three drives in two preseason games. He announced that was not enough work for the starting unit and it, along with the defense, is going to play in Atlanta on Thursday night.

The Steelers have looked excellent early in their preseason contests. They were up 17-7 at halftime against the Bucs and then up 21-0 against the Bills last weekend.

I would expect that sort of effort and finish in this game against Atlanta if the starters are going to play. Falcons coach Arthur Smith, who is now 3-5 against the spread in the preseason, is noncommittal when it comes to playing his starters on Thursday. That is coach speak for “they are not playing.”

I’m wagering on the Steelers to cover the first half.

PICK: Steelers first half (-3)

Dak Prescott sits out preseason

Craig Carton, Greg Jennings and Willie Colon debate Mike McCarthy’s decision to sit quarterback Dak Prescott during the preseason

Browns at Chiefs (Saturday, 1 p.m. ET)

Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski said he plans on playing his starters against the Chiefs. The Browns’ starters are estimated to play 20-25 plays, which is around two drives worth of action.

That is not customary for the final preseason game, and it signals to me that the Browns want to see that group play well. There’s motivation for this group to get its job done and get off the field.

On the other side will be the Chiefs’ backups, who will see the field for the entire game. Andy Reid had his starting offense on the field for parts of five series over two games and will not play Patrick Mahomes in this game.

The Chiefs’ backups have performed well when given action in their two preseason games, but they haven’t played a starting unit like the Browns. I like the Browns to cover the first quarter of this game.

PICK: Browns first half (-0.5)

Seahawks at Packers (Saturday, 1 p.m. ET)

I know it’s boring, but it’s been cashing: wager on Pete Carroll in the preseason. The Seahawks coach is now 38-23 against the spread in the preseason after covering the first two games this preseason.

Carroll is an uber-competitive coach who runs old-school practices. His players are amped for these preseason games, and it shows in the results.

The Seahawks are playing a Packers team that has not been as successful in the preseason under Matt LaFleur. He’s 4-7 in the preseason and was on the way to 4-8 against the Patriots before the game was suspended.

It’s worth noting, one reason the Packers might struggle in this game is their second- and third-string offenses have not scored that many second-half points — just 15 over the three-and-a-half quarters of football. I like Seattle to win and cover this game.

PICK: Seahawks (+135 moneyline) to win outright
PICK: Seahawks (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.