2023 Pittsburgh Steelers Over/Under win total odds, predictions, picks

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Martin Rogers

FOX Sports Insider

With the NFL season set to begin, FOX Sports gambling experts and NFL writers are looking at the Over/Under for every team in the league. Check back daily to see predictions on where your team will finish the regular season!

September’s presence, mere days away, and the air turning crisp can only mean one thing … NFL football is back, baby!

Now that sportsbooks have dropped Over/Under win totals for every team in the league, it’s time to dive into the fun and look at the numbers from a betting perspective.

Can the Pittsburgh Steelers eclipse their win total of 8.5?

Here is how our FOX Sports talent sees the Steelers’ season playing out.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz: Steelers Over 8.5 wins

I hammered the Steelers Over 8.5 win total as soon as it was posted. This number is disrespectful. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has never finished a season under .500, and it’s not happening now.

All signs point to Kenny Pickett making that jump in his second season as the Steelers starting quarterback. The Steelers’ offensive line is a year older and improved. George Pickens is a fantastic receiver. We know their defense is always stout and tough to score against. The return of a healthy T.J. Watt, who played through a torn pec for the back half of the 2022 season, will make that defense even better.

This is why the Steelers are my favorite Over of the season.

Pick via FOX Sports Columnist Martin Rogers: Steelers Over 8.5 wins

Was someone feeling mischievous in setting Pittsburgh’s Over/Under right at the swing position that will determine whether Mike Tomlin’s perfect record in never having a losing season continues or not? Last year was supposed to be when the streak ended, but … nope.

Even the most optimistic Steelers fan knows that if we’re talking depth, this is perhaps the thinnest collection of personnel in the division, but there are some signs of hope. Kenny Pickett can certainly make a difference if he continues to improve at a weighty pace, and he should be helped by an improving and bolstered offensive line, with guard Isaac Seumalo a positive add. T.J. Watt’s health — he missed seven games last year — will be one of the keys to a profitable defense. If things break right, there is no reason why Tomlin can’t display his winning touch once more.

FOX Sports Research Nuggets

9-4 (Over-Under) since 2010
Have hit the Over win total 69% of the time since 2010, tied for the second-highest of any team in that span
Since 2014, has won at least nine games in all but one season (2019 — won eight)

2022 In Review

Overall: 9-8, third in AFC North
Home record: 4-4
Road record: 5-4
Divisional record: 3-3
Point differential: -38 (24th in NFL)
Points per game: 18.1 (T-26th in NFL)
Yards per game: 322.6 (23rd in NFL)
Opponent points per game: 20.4 (T-10th in NFL)
Opponent yards per game: 330.4 (13th)

Why Steelers, Ravens are front-runners for AFC North title

Nick Wright and Chris Broussard share their AFC North predictions, including why the Ravens and Steelers are their front-runners to snag the title.

What to Know

Head Coach: Mike Tomlin, 17th season (163-93-2 with Steelers)
2023 Strength of Schedule: .470 (8th-easiest in NFL)

Key Additions

Key Subtractions

Win Totals From Last 5 Years

2022: 9
2021: 9
2020: 12
2019: 8
2018: 9

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.