Patriots 53-man roster projection: Can this squad get back on winning track?

Is former Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott a good fit for Patriots? Why free-agent WR DeAndre Hopkins chose Titans over Patriots

Henry McKenna

AFC East Reporter

The New England Patriots are the worst team in the AFC East. At least, that’s the perception. And that’s probably OK with Bill Belichick.

Belichick isn’t going to outright say that he plans to win a Super Bowl this year, particularly not in an offseason when the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills have broadcast that that’s their intent. But the Patriots desperately want to get back to their winning ways. Belichick wants another Super Bowl before he retires. The initial construction of this 53-man roster is one of the first steps toward that goal.

So let’s dive into the construction of the 2023 Patriots, which might be one of Belichick’s final rosters that he assembles.

Quarterback (2)
Mac Jones
Bailey Zappe

No surprises on who’s in: Jones (QB1) and Zappe (QB2). But maybe you’re surprised to see a name that’s absent: Malik Cunningham.

The hype around Cunningham, an undrafted free agent, was super fun, but New England didn’t play him at QB in the second preseason game. It was a unique circumstance, with cornerback Isaiah Bolden suffering a severe concussion that led the coaches to end the game early. As a receiver (because he’s trying out at both positions), Cunningham was unable to convert any of his five targets into receptions. I wonder if the Patriots might try to keep his QB snaps at a minimum in this third game, too.

Why? The less that other teams see of Cunningham, the more likely it is that he makes it to the Patriots’ practice squad. He’s an explosive playmaker, but probably not worth the risk of a roster spot. So New England cuts him and stashes him, maybe for the whole year.

Cut: Malik Cunninghan, Trace McSorley

Running back (3)
Rhamondre Stevenson
Ezekiel Elliott
Pierre Strong

It’s strange for a Patriots roster to have so few running backs. But that’s partially because of the strength of their top two in Stevenson and Elliott. And it’s also because they likely feel confident about moving Kevin Harris and J.J. Taylor to their practice squad.

Ty Montgomery is a tricky one. He would be a useful player in the offense if he could stay healthy, but … he can’t seem to stay healthy. The team has already seemed to figure out how to replace him with Elliott and receiver Demario Douglas.

Taylor is still pushing for a spot. Belichick showed a lot of love for the RB last week. But I’m not sure the Patriots have space for him on the 53-man roster.

Cut: Kevin Harris, J.J. Taylor, Ty Montgomery, J.J. Taylor, C.J. Marable

Is former Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott a good fit for Patriots?

[McKenna: Patriots signing Ezekiel Elliott is great Plan B for Rhamondre Stevenson]

Wide Receiver (7)
DeVante Parker
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Kendrick Bourne
Demario Douglas
Tyquan Thornton
Kayshon Boutte
Matthew Slater*

This group looks fairly deep. Although I definitely said the same of it last year — and the position group didn’t produce the desired results. It’s not enough to be deep at the receiver position. There has to be one top-tier talent. On this roster, there isn’t one.

Parker has been New England’s best wideout. Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne have impressed with flashes of strong play. Smith-Schuster has a workmanlike presence, with a high volume of catches and targets — but not a whole lot of explosiveness.

Thornton, if he hadn’t been a second-round pick, would not make this team. He’s been OK when he’s on the field, but he’s been injured often. Because the Patriots invested a high pick in him, they will give him more time.

Boutte has done well in both camp and preseason. The LSU product and sixth-round selection has worked his way into the mix.

Slater gets the asterisk because he’s a specialist who won’t play a snap at wideout.

Cut: Raleigh Webb, Thyrick Pitts

Why free-agent WR DeAndre Hopkins chose Titans over Patriots

[McKenna: Patriots need more from their WRs. It’s up to new OC Bill O’Brien to get it]

Tight end (3)
Hunter Henry
Mike Gesicki
Trade: Giants TE Daniel Bellinger

Henry and Gesicki are going to have a big role in this offense, given the arrival of offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, who made heavy usage of tight ends when he last ran this offense.

Matt Sokol is clearly the TE3, given what the Patriots have in-house. But he would only make the roster for lack of competition. Anthony Firkser hasn’t been all that special. So if there isn’t an amazing third option on the current roster, then why not go out and get one, particularly if the tight ends are going to be important to the offense?

Bellinger, a 2022 fourth-round pick, has been promising in New York, where he posted 30 catches for 268 yards and two touchdowns in 2022. He’s an impressive athlete who can block and serve as a pass-catcher. Still in his developmental phase, Bellinger has the chance to be a good all-around tight end — just what New England needs at TE3.

Cut: Matt Sokol, Anthony Firkser, Scotty Washington, Johnny Lumpkin

[McKenna: Patriots’ tight ends taking center stage for Mac Jones, Bill O’Brien]

Offensive line (8)
Trent Brown
Cole Strange
David Andrews
Mike Onwenu
Sidy Sow
Riley Reiff
Jake Andrews
Atonio Mafi
NFI: Calvin Anderson

The Patriots are set from left to right — almost. They’re unsettled at right tackle.

So who might start there: Sow or Reiff or even Conor McDermott? A fourth-round rookie, Sow is a lock, whether he starts or not. But if he does start, it’ll help the Patriots feel better about parting ways with McDermott, who hasn’t proven to be the caliber player they need. Reiff has been good, not great. And maybe Anderson can contribute once he returns from injury. He signed with the team this offseason but has yet to practice.

There is an alternate scenario where McDermott or Billy Murray make the roster at the expense of Jake Andrews, who was a fourth-round pick this year. The only way Andrews isn’t on the 53-man roster is if he ends up on injured reserve. Maybe, as NESN’s Zack Cox suggested, Andrews will come down with the “Foxborough Flu,” an ankle or hamstring injury that lands him on IR for the year to get a redshirt season.

Cut: Conor McDermott, Andrew Steuber, Bill Murray, James Ferentz, Chasen Hines, Kody Russey, Micah Vanterpool

Defensive line (5)
Davon Godchaux
Christian Barmore
Lawrence Guy
Daniel Ekuale
Carl Davis

There’s a chance the Patriots trade Guy, who wants a new contract and briefly engaged in a holdout during minicamp. Davis, too, isn’t necessarily a lock to make the roster. But given that Barmore, a 2021 second-round pick, has yet to take the desired leap forward (and has an unfortunate habit of getting injured), the Patriots keep all five. And they’ll probably play all five.

Cut: Sam Roberts, Jeremiah Pharms, Justus Tavai

Edge (5)
Matthew Judon
Deatrich Wise
Josh Uche
Keion White
Anfernee Jennings

Judon and Uche are special players. The difference is that Judon has been an every-down player and Uche has just been a pass-rushing specialist, logging just 33% percent of the team’s defensive snaps last year. So can Uche play more?

“I believe Josh is going to have one heck of a year,” Judon said at Gillette Stadium on Wednesday. “We all see as a pass rusher what he can do, and I think we don’t really focus on his run-stopping because he’s such a good pass rusher. But I think he can do it all. He can play first down, second down, third down, and then he can play any special teams that we need him to play.”

That would be a fascinating development — and might even bump Jennings off the roster. But I’ll believe Uche’s every-down potential when I see it. For now, Jennings sticks around as a run defender and special teams contributor. White and Wise are locks.

New England placed outside linebacker Ronnie Perkins, a 2021 third-round draft pick, on injured reserve last year. (Foxborough Flu?) He has not flashed enough talent to remain on the roster. He’s out.

Cut: Ronnie Perkins, Carson Wells

Linebacker (5)
Ja’Whaun Bentley
Jahlani Tavai
Marte Mapu
Mack Wilson
Chris Board*

If we’re going to see a surprise at this position, it’s going to come from linebacker Calvin Munson. He has had an on-again, off-again relationship with the Patriots. But it’s starting to look like it’s on again. We’ll see if he can force his way onto the roster with a good performance in the third and final preseason game.

Otherwise, Bentley and Tavai are the starters. Mapu, a versatile rookie, and Wilson are role players. Board will contribute almost exclusively on special teams.

Cut: Calvin Munson, Diego Fagot, Joe Giles-Harris

[McKenna: This Patriots rookie is showing why Bill Belichick reached in the draft]

Cornerback (7)
Christian Gonzalez
Jack Jones
Jonathan Jones
Marcus Jones
Myles Bryant
Isaiah Bolden
Ameer Speed*

It will be interesting to see how the top five split their reps. It would make sense if they rotated between the top four: Gonzalez (CB1), Jack Jones (CB2), Jon Jones (slot) and Marcus Jones (situational/backup CB). But Bryant always seems to sneak his way onto the field.

The undrafted rookies, Bolden and Speed have done a nice job on special teams and in their backup roles on defense. Bolden, in particular, is a very compelling developmental project as an outside corner.

Cut: Rodney Randle, Shaun Wade, Quandre Mosely

Safety (5)
Kyle Dugger
Adrian Phillips
Jalen Mills
Jabrill Peppers
Brenden Schooler*
PUP: Cody Davis

These five players are locks. Schooler is going to try to make the Pro Bowl on special teams. And with the other four, the team likes what all of them can offer on defense. They will get a sizable workload, with Dugger likely getting as close to 100% of the team’s snaps as possible. He’s another first-time Pro Bowl candidate.

The team is moving Mills from cornerback to safety this year. While he was a solid cornerback (largely out of necessity), he is probably a more natural safety. And the team needs a safety who is more defensive back than linebacker. Peppers is practically a linebacker. And Phillips plays mostly in the box. Mills can play some free safety.

Cut: Joshuah Bledsoe, Brad Hawkins,

Specialists (3)
K Chad Ryland
P Bryce Baringer
LS Joe Cardona

There are two tough battles here. The team drafted Ryland in the fourth round and Baringer in the sixth. They’re both trying to beat out veterans.

Ryland has not definitively beaten out Nick Folk. Ryland has the bigger leg but is inconsistent while Folk’s leg strength is clearly fading but he is reliable within his range. It’s not the best scenario. You have to wonder if Belichick would be willing to cut Ryland after taking him so high in the draft — particularly because Belichick whiffed on kicker Justin Rohrwasser in the draft in 2020.

Punters Baringer and Corliss Waitman, on the other hand, both look good. Because of Baringer being a draft pick, I think he gets the edge.

Cut: K Nick Folk, P Corliss Waitman

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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