There’s not much you can be definitive about in the National Football League. Fans, players, writers, panelists, we all like to talk in certainties, knowing full well that none truly exist.
“Can’t miss” means “might miss.” “Guaranteed” implies a “strong likelihood.” “No doubt” means that yep, there might actually be some doubt lurking.
What you “know” is really just what you think you know, or what you feel confident enough in to make a good case for. Promises are empty. Change is permanent. Unpredictability is the league’s calling card and perhaps its greatest asset.
All of this is a breezy way of saying — don’t talk in 100 percent terms unless you’re prepared to be proven wrong, and quickly. Unless, of course, you’re speaking about Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers, in which case, shoot, just go for it.
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Tomlin has proven himself as someone truly rare: a sure thing. Or, at least, a “can’t lose.” Across his 16 seasons in charge, there has never been a below-.500 season, a metronomic clip that has crossed through campaigns when the team was supposed to be good and, recently, a couple when it really wasn’t.
Last year was all set up to be the first stumble, with Ben Roethlisberger retired and a lineup that had little to make it particularly stand out. There were uninspiring defeats, a stuttering start and Tomlin’s hopes of continuing his streak looked bad at 1-4, worse at 2-6, desperate at 3-7 and virtually doomed at 5-8.
But writing off a Tomlin squad is a bad idea, and four straight wins to close out the season put Pittsburgh back on the positive side of the ledger once more, courtesy of some stout defense, improved play from quarterback Kenny Pickett, the revelation of George Pickens as an outstanding wide receiver and some seat-of-the-pants comebacks, not least a pair of fourth-quarter revivals against the Raiders and Ravens in Weeks 16 and 17.
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And thus the season ended with a 9-8 record — to preserve Tomlin’s record. No one else in the league has a current non-losing run like it, and it’s not particularly close. Dating back to just before Tomlin, the Steelers as a franchise have played 19 straight years of .500 or better. Three more and they will break the Dallas Cowboys’ all-time stretch from 1965-85.
Given that the wild swings and the resulting peaks and troughs are part of what is so addicting about NFL life, Tomlin’s ultra-consistency could be considered somewhat boring — if the man himself wasn’t so darned interesting, albeit in a low-key kind of way.
With the new campaign approaching, he is in danger of becoming a victim of his own success. Steelers fans have been immune from the misery that comes with those miserable years filled with piling losses, but there is also some local irk that the team hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016.
You’d think that a pair of Super Bowl titles and avoiding a single losing year would protect Tomlin from any suggestion of criticism, but that hasn’t always been the case.
That said, franchise ownership knows a good thing when it sees one, and with two years left on Tomlin’s deal, it is expected he will be offered and accept a new contract between now and expiration.
“I haven’t even thought about it,” Tomlin told reporters. “I’m just at the stage of my career where I don’t even think about contracts, to be honest with you. I acknowledged that I’ve seen more days than I’m going to see. That’s just the nature of this thing. I’m appreciative of the opportunity. I’m singularly focused. I’m thankful I’m in a stage in my life and my career that it’s a non-issue for me.”
Looking at the Steelers’ hopes for the coming season, it isn’t much of a stretch to envisage a similar type of outcome again, hovering around the .500 point and leaning just to the positive side of it.
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The AFC North is a tough division. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals revel in their cheery recent surge, the Baltimore Ravens are pleased to have Lamar Jackson secured long-term and have added weapons around him and the Cleveland Browns nervously hope that Deshaun Watson looks better than he did last year.
Tomlin and the Steelers are rolling with Pickett, with the head coach scheduling a daily one-on-one meeting with his QB during the summer, as he tries to speed along his development, which has mostly trended positively.
At 51, Tomlin could have plenty of time left should he wish for it, and he has been around so long he not only knows the NFL inside out but is essentially part of the furniture.
His witticisms and observations, or Tomlinisms, are widely appreciated, the most recent being when he explained the theory behind playing his starters in the preseason in colorful terms.
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“I don’t really need validation,” Tomlin said, after a thumping of the Atlanta Falcons gave his group a perfect 3-0 preseason. “I think it’s difficult to box without sparring. Preseason is an opportunity for us to spar and sharpen our swords for the battle.”
That might have been the most well-received quote of the offseason. Another Tomlin go-to, not quite as snappy but often used over the years, goes along the lines of how if you follow the measured path and trust in the things that are proven to work, you can’t lose.
Can’t lose? He should know.
Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.
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