USA vs. Sweden: Scouting report, prediction for Round of 16 matchup

How much of a CHALLENGE will Sweden pose to USWNT? | SOTU Sweden vs. Italy Highlights | 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup Sweden’s Amanda Ilestedt scores goal vs. Italy in 39′ | 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup Heather O’Reilly, Ari Hingst break down how USWNT can use outside pressure against Sweden USWNT’s Sophia Smith scores her FIRST World Cup Goal vs. Vietnam | Every Angle

Doug McIntyre

Soccer Journalist

MELBOURNE, Australia — After surviving a scare against Portugal in its first round finale and failing to win at least two group stage games at a Women’s World Cup in the program’s long and glorious history, the good news is that United States starts the knockout stage with a fresh slate.

[Full 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup bracket]

Sunday’s match against Sweden (coverage begins at 4 a.m. ET, with kickoff at 5 a.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app) — arguably the best team never to win a major tournament — at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium will be the hardest one yet for Vlatko Andonovski’s side, one that enters the Round of 16 having scored just once in its last two contests.

“We respect them so much,” U.S. captain Lindsey Horan said of the Swedes before the team closed up its base camp in Auckland, New Zealand and departed for Australia. “The main focus right now is what we can do to expose them and to win this game.”

What do the Americans and their understandably nervous fans need to be wary of Sunday? It’s not a short list:

How much of a CHALLENGE will Sweden pose to USWNT? | SOTU

What makes Sweden dangerous?

As FIFA’s third-ranked team behind the U.S. and the recently-eliminated Germany, plenty. But set pieces and crosses into the box have long been Sweden’s calling card.

So it has been Down Under. Six of the Swedes nine goals in group play were scored one way or the other. Just two strikes came during the run of play. (The last goal was a penalty that sealed Wednesday’s 2-0 win over Argentina and ensured this meeting with the Americans.)

Sweden vs. Italy Highlights | 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup

Who is their key player?

At this World Cup, it’s been central defender Amanda Ilestedt. The 30-year-old, who logged all 90 minutes against the Americans in their group stage match at the 2019 World Cup — a 1-0 victory for the U.S. — has been heavily involved on both sides of the ball this time around. Not only has Ilestedt started all three group stage games and helped her team keep clean sheets in the last two, she’s also scored a team-best three goals and counting — all of them headed home off corner kicks.

Sweden’s Amanda Ilestedt scores goal vs. Italy in 39′ | 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup

What is the history between these teams?

A case could be made that Sweden is the USWNT’s biggest rival. After all, familiarity breeds contempt. Somehow this will be the sixth consecutive World Cup at which the Swedes and Americans have met. They were paired in the first round three straight times before this year.

“We always play Sweden in every major tournament,” U.S. veteran Alex Morgan told FOX Sports in the mixed zone immediately following the Portugal match. “Probably every time since I’ve been on this team, so we know them very well. We know their strengths.”

At Morgan’s first World Cup in 2011, Sweden won the group — the only other time the U.S. failed to finish first. They also stunned the Americans at each of the last two Olympics, eliminating them on penalties in the 2016 quarters — the lone Summer Games at which the U.S. failed to medal — and routing Andonovski’s squad 3-0 in their tourney opener in Tokyo two years ago.

At the 2019 World Cup in France, the U.S. rode an early deflected shot by Tobin Heath and held on for a narrow 1-0 victory in the group finale. “I remember the last World Cup, we played them in group stage, and we scored in the third minute and that was lovely,” Horan joked on Thursday.

“But that’s not always the case.”

Heather O’Reilly, Ari Hingst break down how USWNT can use outside pressure against Sweden

Key matchup

Sophia Smith vs. Ilestedt. Tall and physical, Ilestedt is as good with her head in her own box as in opponents’. She’s not the fleetest of foot, though, as South African winger Thembi Kgatlana showed on the play that temporarily put Banyana Banyana up by a goal in the second half of Sweden’s first match at Australia-New Zealand 2023.

Smith was rendered ineffective by possession-heavy foes in each of the last two U.S. games. But she’s fast. Really fast. Smith has the pace to cause Ilestedt real problems either in one-on-one situations or by playing quick combinations with center forward Morgan inside the penalty area.

USWNT’s Sophia Smith scores her FIRST World Cup Goal vs. Vietnam | Every Angle

Prediction

2-1 Sweden. The U.S. has enough individual talent to stand toe-to-toe with the Swedes. On current form, though, it’s hard to be too optimistic about the Americans chances in this one. Scoring is never easy against an organized, disciplined and experienced Swedish team even at the best of times. And from an attacking perspective, these are hardly the best of times for Andonovski’s side.

On the other end of the field, Sweden has a significant height advantage over the U.S. Given how good they’ve been in the air here (four headed goals so far), they seem bound to convert one. And as Horan said Thursday of Janne Anderssonon’s team: “That’s how it goes in some of these World Cup games. They score one goal and then it’s over with.”

Doug McIntyre is a soccer writer for FOX Sports. Before joining FOX Sports in 2021, he was a staff writer with ESPN and Yahoo Sports and he has covered United States men’s and women’s national teams at multiple FIFA World Cups. Follow him on Twitter @ByDougMcIntyre.

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