Illinois (+15) turned the ball over five — yes, five — times last week against Penn State and still almost covered. Those are the toughest losses, the ones when you’re on the right side but fall just short.
Ugh.
I’ve got three more college football bets and two more NFL plays this week. Remember, this place isn’t the space for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
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Central Florida at Kansas State (-4, O/U 52)
K-State quarterback Will Howard is banged up.
Howard was seen limping around campus on crutches this week, and KSU is saying he’s been “at practice” without confirming that he actually practiced. Love it when they make it difficult on us. There’s obviously a chance that Howard toughs it out and plays — and I welcome that.
But if he’s limited, this is a troublesome spot.
UCF is still without its starting quarterback, John Rhys Plumlee, but the Knights are high on backup Timmy McClain. The Knights also have plenty of skill and speed in the playmaker department, and there shouldn’t be any issues with them moving the ball down the field.
I almost went moneyline, but I’ll take the cushion.
PICK: UCF (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)
Should Shedeur Sanders enter 2024 NFL Draft or stay at Colorado?
There’s better quarterback news at Utah.
Utes QB Cam Rising is supposedly available for the first time since tearing his ACL at last year’s Rose Bowl. Professional bettors have differing opinions about how much Rising is worth to the offense. When positive news officially broke Thursday, wise guys whacked Utah from -4.5 to -6.5.
Then, the eventual UCLA wise guy buyback came at +6.5.
I still like Utah at -5.5 because I believe in Rising’s dual-threat ability. He’s truly the Utes’ best offensive player, and rust doesn’t really worry me. He’s been active at practice for a couple of weeks now, and rumor has it his plan all along was to make his season debut in this very game.
And give me Utah’s defense against UCLA freshman Dante Moore.
PICK: Utah (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points
Buffalo at UL Lafayette (-10, O/U 57.5)
This is it for Buffalo.
The Bulls are 0-3 with losses to Wisconsin, an undefeated Liberty team and Fordham, one of the most explosive offenses in the FCS ranks. It sort of sounds like I’m making excuses for Buffalo and maybe there’s some truth to that. But if this team has any heart at all, it’ll compete this Saturday.
Lafayette is your prototypical Sun Belt team. The Ragin’ Cajuns get up and down the field and usually find themselves in track meets. They’ll also give up big chunk plays on defense. Buffalo certainly has the offensive ammo to hang around, and as long as quarterback Cole Snyder doesn’t throw any more backbreaking interceptions, the Bulls should hang around.
It’s tough not to take double digits here.
PICK: Buffalo (+10) to lose by fewer than 10 points (or win outright)
How should Michigan, Texas & Alabama fans feel after Week 3?
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-3.5, O/U 39.5)
It’s so much fun betting on Mike Vrabel.
Every year, the national narrative around the Titans tends to focus on their lack of talent or playmakers, yet Tennessee has found a way to make the NFL playoffs in three of the last four seasons. That’s not an accident.
Vrabel’s teams are mentally tough and keep games close. They’ve covered 22 of their last 37 games (60%) dating back to Week 1 in 2021.
Meanwhile, Cleveland will be searching for serious answers with star running back Nick Chubb out for the season with a devastating knee injury. I know oddsmakers say running backs aren’t worth much to the betting line, but Chubb’s absence changes everything the Browns do offensively.
Expect Vrabel to stack the box and make Deshaun Watson beat him with his arm. Don’t be surprised if Tennessee wins outright.
PICK: Titans (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-1, O/U 42.5)
I hate how much I love the Packers in this spot.
The Saints have caught basically every single break over the last two weeks, and they managed to squeak out two wins by four combined points.
Hooray.
Sure, the New Orleans passing game is much-improved with Derek Carr instead of Andy Dalton, but Carr is still a ticking time bomb with the ball. There’s always a bad interception lurking, and the Packers secondary is no joke. That Jaire Alexander–Chris Olave matchup is going to be a war.
At the end of the day, this comes down to laying the right number. I wasn’t excited to lay a field goal on the open, but I’ll gladly lay a penny.
PICK: Packers (-1) to win by more than 1 point
2023 Record: (6-7, -1.5)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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