2023 College Football Week 5 predictions, best bets by Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica

Chris Fallica

FOX Sports Wagering Expert

“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.

Week 5 of the college football season is here, and I like several underdogs to bark this weekend.

As for betting on college football every week, I will share my best bets and gambling nuggets (Bear Bytes) with you throughout the season in this space. So, if you are looking to throw a few bucks down on the big games this week, I’ve got you covered.

On a side note, a new episode of my digital gambling show and podcast will be posted every Thursday. The college football-focused episodes — presented by Big Noon Kickoff — will be released on Thursdays, with the NFL-themed episodes dropping on Fridays.

Let’s have some fun and, hopefully, make some money.

Here are my favorite wagers for Week 5.

Last week: 5-4-1 (11-14-1 season)

(All times ET Saturday)

Texas A&M at Arkansas, noon, SEC

Aggies quarterback Conner Weigman (broken foot) looks out for the year, but Max Johnson played well last week against Auburn and has had some flashes in his career.

I think the Aggies are underrated for the first time in a long time. There’s a history of close, wild games in this series, so laying close to a touchdown is risky, but I think the best unit on the field will be the A&M defense.

After twice blowing a double-digit lead vs. BYU and a hard-fought 34-31 loss at LSU, one has to wonder where the Razorbacks are mentally. A&M does have Alabama next week, so there could be a tad bit of a look ahead, but I’ll still back the Aggies here.

PICK: Texas A&M (-6) to win by more than 6 points

No. 2 Michigan at Nebraska, 3:30 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app

I’m not sure if there will be a ton of possessions for the Cornhuskers in this game. The Wolverines are among the slowest-tempo teams and play complementary football very well.

Sure, Michigan hasn’t covered a spread yet — that could be in large part because of the lack of possessions. It just leaves such little wiggle room. But defensively, the Wolverines are a problem for opponents. Against four overmatched opponents, Michigan allowed a total of just 23 points this season.

Nebraska has looked much more functional on offense, with Heinrich Haarberg committing just one turnover in two games, but this is a big step up from Louisiana Tech and Northern Illinois. Don’t expect many points.

PICK: Nebraska team total Under 10.5 points

Houston at Texas Tech, 3:30 p.m., FS2

You never know what you’re gonna get from a Dana Holgorsen-coached team, but I’m more concerned about what we can expect from the Red Raiders offense without QB Tyler Shough (broken left fibula). We’ll see if Behren Morton or whoever is under center for the Red Raiders can rally Tech from a disappointing start to the season.

But despite the Cougars getting drilled by TCU 36-13, laying close to double digits here seems like a tall task, especially because Houston is now led by former Tech QB Donovan Smith.

I’ll grab the points.

PICK: Houston (+9) to lose by fewer than 9 points (or win outright)

No. 1 Georgia at Auburn, 3:30 p.m., CBS

Since beating the Bulldogs during the 2017 regular season, the Tigers have scored 10, 10, 6, 14, 10 and 7 points in six straight losses.

Oh, it gets better. In its two games this year vs. Power 5 teams, Auburn has scored 10 and 14 points, gaining 230 and 200 yards on 119 total plays (3.6 yards per play).

If I get beat, so be it, but is Auburn really gonna score two TDs and two two-point conversions, or two TDs and a field goal? Seems optimistic, given this team is lost at the QB position right now and is facing one of the best defenses in the country.

PICK: Auburn team total Under 15.5 points

Indiana at Maryland, 3:30 p.m., Big Ten

I hate myself for this bet as I thought I lost my old friend’s phone number for good. But this call snuck through caller ID because of the Terps’ impending showdown at Ohio State next week and the fact IU actually played respectable vs. the Buckeyes and Louisville.

The Hoosiers might be able to hang around against the undefeated Terps, who have beaten what’s probably the worst team in the ACC (Virginia) and potentially the worst team in the Big Ten (Michigan State), getting nine turnovers in those two games.

PICK: Indiana (+14.5) to lose by fewer than 14.5 points (or win outright)

UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE

Virginia +140
South Alabama +135
Vanderbilt +395
Virginia Tech +120

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.