It’s way too soon to take any victory laps, but we were able to use what we learned in Week 1 to hit on four of six of our props in Week 2. Still in the black, baby!
Running back health and defensive collapse (we’re looking at you, Chicago) have inspired some of the more popular wagers on this week’s slate. While only one game presents with a projected point total over 50 (LAC at MIN), some lopsided games are expected, as four matchups feature a spread of 8+ points.
Let’s dive into the nitty gritty and see where we can turn a profit. Onwards to Week 3!
QB Props
Dak Prescott UNDER 230.5 passing yards (at Arizona)
Liz: The Cardinals have emerged as a wellspring for opposing offenses, allowing the third-most fantasy points to the QB position. Daniel Jones ripped off 321 passing yards at State Farm Stadium less than a week ago. It is certainly reasonable to believe that Dak goes ham against a defense that’s allowed a 6.9 YPA. However, given the strength of the defense and Coach McCarthy’s proclivity towards running the ball (the Cowboys rank third in rush attempts), it seems as though Dak & Co. will likely salt the clock away and grind this game out on the ground.
Justin Fields OVER 58.5 rushing yards (at Kansas City)
Daniel: I love the word proclivity, Liz. It makes me feel like I’m living the Stephania Bell high-life for but one fleeting moment… maybe one day. As for today, I’m finding ways to talk myself into taking the over here. We all know the about the press conference comments, most of which I think were misinterpreted, but the one thing that stands out is his vocalness about wanting to getting back to HIS game. And this week, against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, the Bears will be playing ketchup (Patty Mahomes joke), all game long. While it’s possible Fields crushes it in the passing department, I’m seeing a very logical path to him trying to be more like the 2022 Justin Fields. Using his mobility and athletic ability matriculate the ball down the field while playing from behind.
RB Props
Bijan Robinson OVER 22.5 receiving yards (at Detroit)
Daniel: I know, I know! I did this prop last week, but guess what? It totally covered and there’s still plenty of room for this to hit! The thing to know about Falcons RBs is, only two of them have targets on the season — Bijan and Tyler Allgeier. And between those two, Bijan as 11 targets and Allgeier has 3. This volume isn’t gonna stop! I’m expecting one of the best RBs in football (yes, already one of the best) to get 5+ targets and if he gets that, there’s almost no way he’s not hitting 22.5 receiving yards. He’s already done it two games in a row! Listen, I love the Lions but even I think (for the third week in a row) this is bet you should take.
Kenneth Walker III OVER 64.5 rushing yards (vs. Carolina)
Liz: Walker has been doing quite a bit rushing upfield. In fact, Seattle’s undisputed RB1 (Zach Charb-o-who?) has managed an impressive opportunity share of 73.5% (RB11) while also recording a whopping nine red zone touches, third-most in the league. The Seahawks are 5.5-point home favorites facing a Carolina defense that’s allowed the 10th-most yards per carry (4.5) to opposing rushers so far this season. Walker’s volume figures to remain robust as 5.5 home favorites while his efficiency should soar given that the Panthers will be without Shaq Thompson and playing a short week.
WR Props
Zay Flowers OVER 48.5 receiving yards (vs. Indianapolis)
Liz: With Odell Beckham Jr. sidelined, Nelson Agholor popped off to the tune of five grabs, 63 receiving yards and a score in Week 2. I love that for him, but I still think Flowers figures to lead the team’s WR corps. The rookie has recorded the most WR snaps (102) while running more than 30 routes in back-to-back efforts. He draws a fire matchup on Sunday versus a Colts secondary that’s given up the fifth-most receiving yards (474) to opposing wideouts.
Puka Nacua OVER 63.5 receiving yards (at Cincinnati)
Daniel: I know the Bengals are top 10 in passing yards allowed per game, but Week 1 was a terrible weather game against a hapless Bengals offense, and week 2 was against a Ravens offense that rushed the ball 37 times and they still had a WR beat this line. Now, I wouldn’t have expected that Ravens WR to be Nelson Agholor, but you didn’t ask me who it was so I’d like to think I’m off the hook. Over the last two weeks, Nacua has averaged 133 receiving yards and 17.5 targets per game. That’s not a typo. 17.5 TARGETS PER GAME. Stafford has shown us that he’s looking at this guy early and often. If he can beat this number against the 49ers defense, I have faith he can do it against the Bengals. I’m being too positive again but I don’t care!
