2023 NFL odds: Best Week 1 predictions, including Eagles, Steelers to cover

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Jason McIntyre

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

NFL Week 1 is officially underway, as the Detroit Lions kicked off the new season with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football.

Bettors now have to get ready for a full slate of games this weekend.

Will the Falcons protect home turf and get the win over Bryce Young and the Panthers? Can the Eagles cover the 3.5 points as the away team when they visit the Patriots?

Let’s dive into my best bets for the 2023 NFL season Week 1.

Panthers at Falcons (1 p.m., FOX and the FOX Sports App)

This total has plunged from 42 down to 39.5, making it the lowest total in the NFL for Week 1.

Some of that has to do with how bad the Panthers’ offensive line looked in the preseason (read: awful), but also the injuries mounting at receiver. Adam Thielen and DJ Chark (probably out) both missed practice time, and Terrace Marshall isn’t 100%, either.

New coach Frank Reich is 0-4-1 in season openers. And since 2003, QBs drafted first overall are 0-13-1 straight up and 1-13 against the spread (ATS) in their first start. Good luck, Bryce.

However, there’s some good news for Desmond Ridder. Carolina’s best pass rusher, Brian Burns, has been holding out and wants a new contract. If he plays, he’ll be on a low snap count.

The Falcons will want to play it safe with the new QB, so I took the Under and Falcons -3.5.

I started Atlanta’s defense in all three of my fantasy leagues. So I’m all in here.

PICK: Under 40 points scored by both teams combined
PICK: Falcons (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points

Bengals at Browns (1 p.m., CBS)

I wouldn’t be surprised if this number drifts toward pick ’em ahead of kickoff.

The Bengals were -2.5, but the line came down to -2 this week, even after the news Joe Burrow was cleared to play.

Since 2010, Week 1 divisional home dogs have been on an absurd 21-5 ATS run. The Browns have a new defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz, who cooked up the scheme in the Titans playoff game where Burrow was sacked nine times. Now, Schwartz has a nasty defensive front with Za’Darius Smith, Myles Garrett, and Dalvin Tomlinson.

This would be a good time to add that Burrow is 1-4 against Cleveland in his career.

Forget the DeShaun Watson you saw for six games last year after a year and a half absence. He should be able to exploit a Bengals secondary with three new starters.

PICK: Browns (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
PICK: Browns (-102) moneyline to win outright

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49ers at Steelers (1 p.m., FOX and the FOX Sports App)

I’ve been talking about this game for months on The Herd, and the Steelers are the side for me. That’s regardless of whether TE George Kittle (hamstring) plays or not.

Expect Nick Bosa to be on a limited snap count, which will hurt a 49ers’ defense that has some question marks in the secondary with Charvarius Ward and Talanoa Hufanga missing practice Thursday.

The 49ers will lose this game in the trenches, where the right side of their line struggles to contain TJ Watt. This season, the Steelers’ offense will be more dynamic than the 3-yards and a cloud of dust we’ve seen in recent years from Matt Canada.

PICK: Steelers (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
PICK: Steelers (-116) moneyline to win outright

Buccaneers at Vikings (1 p.m., CBS)

Should the Vikings be favored by this much over anyone?

This number was 6.5 for most of the summer before money started to show on the underdog Bucs in late August.

Yes, Minnesota was 13-4 last season, but they went 11-0 in one-score games and finished with a -3 point differential.

I’m not high on the Bucs, and they will be bad this season, but the defensive front could provide some problems, and the Tampa secondary still has talent (Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, Antoine Winfield).

There are macro issues the Vikings have — at least five new defensive starters. Does the front office want Kirk Cousins beyond this year? These issues may creep up if some of the close games don’t go their way as they regress to the mean.

PICK: Tampa Bay (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points (or win outright)

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Rams at Seahawks (4:25 p.m., FOX and the FOX Sports app)

Nothing earth shattering here, but the loss of WR Cooper Kupp will definitely hurt the Rams’ offense. They’ve had about a week to install some new offense without their best receiver, but going on the road here with limited weapons, a shaky offense line and a very weak defense could spell doom.

Sean McVay had owned Pete Carroll, winning five of six, but that wa before they were swept last year. However, neither Matt Stafford nor Kupp played in either game. Yet Seattle won two nail biters. How?

Well, the Rams defense had Bobby Wagner (now in Seattle) and Jalen Ramsey (now in Miami), and the pair combined for three interceptions.

It’s possible that Geno Smith’s mistakes — led the NFL with 29 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF — keep the Rams in this. But barring some special teams hiccups, I have difficulty seeing them score consistently on the road, especially in this game.

PICK: Rams team total Under 20.5 points

Eagles at Patriots (4:25 p.m., CBS)

For weeks, all we’ve heard about are the Eagles’ losses — both coordinators, a few linebackers, some running backs. What you haven’t heard is that the Patriots’ OC last year was Matt Patricia, and he was in the QB room all season with Mac Jones.

His current status? Patricia is now a senior defensive assistant coach with the Eagles. That’s nice to have on your team in the opener, right? Having a coach who knows all the tendencies and weaknesses of the opposing quarterback is a huge advantage for Philly in this one.

Smells like a 31-13 Eagles win, and if I don’t take it, I’ll be kicking myself for not grabbing the better team that should dominate the trenches.

PICK: Eagles (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.