2023 NFL Week 3 odds: Fade the Chiefs, other Week 2 best bets, picks

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Week 1 of the NFL saw a majority of games finish Under the total, while Week 2 saw the reverse, with 12 of the 14 games before Monday Night Football going Over their closing line totals.

This is how the league ebbs and flows with its gambling trends.

But the biggest surprise after two weeks isn’t the totals … it’s the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are 2-0, covering both of their wins with ease.

Their win total this season was 6.5, and most had them going Under. I even believed they were in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. Now, their win total has jumped to 8.5, so we need to give them credit.

I would still look at the Under even with the fast start. The Bucs have the Eagles, Saints, Lions, Falcons and Bills in their next five games. And if that isn’t enough to give you pause, they also have to play the 49ers and Packers later in the season. I can’t see this team being 9-7.

But enough with my surprise team of the season. Let’s focus on the matchups this weekend and some early wagers I like.

Patriots at Jets (1 p.m., CBS)

This is as square of a play as you will find this weekend, but it doesn’t mean it’s the wrong play.

Both of these offenses stink right now, while both defenses are playing well. Sometimes, football is that simple.

The Jets have Zach Wilson at quarterback after losing starter Aaron Rodgers on the first drive of the season. Wilson is not good at playing quarterback, and in the four games he’s started against the Patriots, he’s been worse than his career numbers. He’s 0-4 with point totals in those games of 6, 13, 17 and 3. He’s thrown for only two touchdowns with seven interceptions against this defense. The Jets’ offense is going to struggle this weekend.

On the flip side, we have the Patriots’ offense against this excellent Jets defense. Mac Jones is just not the guy who can succeed against a superfast defense that hits the passer. New England’s offense has only mustered up 37 points in its two games this season, and every single drive has looked painful. The team’s receiving options are underwhelming, and it can’t run the ball either.

I predict a low-scoring game here.

PICK: Under 37.5 points scored by both teams combined

Justin Fields continues to show regression after Week 2 loss vs. Bucs

Colin Cowherd explains how Fields is proving he is not ‘that guy’ for the Bears.

Bears at Chiefs (4:25 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

I’m going against the grain here and taking the Bears with the points.

I know the Bears stink, and the Chiefs are good, although their offense isn’t functioning at a high level right now. But 13 points is a ton in the NFL, and the Chiefs have struggled to cover these big numbers at home. They get bored with these types of games.

The Bears are desperate for anything positive to happen this weekend, or else the coaching staff might be in trouble. I don’t love backing the Bears here, but I do like to wager against the public.

PICK: Bears (+12.5) to lose by fewer than 12.5 points (or win outright)

Chargers at Vikings (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

Two teams with high hopes for the season are both 0-2, each losing a pair of one-score games.

The Vikings famously won all their regular-season games last season that finished within one score, so it makes sense that they would revert to the mean in 2023.

The Chargers don’t have the leadership to have the team ready to win these close games.

So who wins on Sunday?

I’m putting my money on the Vikings to win this game at home because I trust them more. The Chargers’ defense is bad. It just allowed the Titans to score 27 points and the Dolphins to put up 36.

The Vikings’ offense can move the ball, and Kirk Cousins can play when he’s not on prime time. Cousins is 55-33-1 when playing in the early time slot versus 18-35 when playing later in the day.

Also, I just want to fade Chargers coach Brandon Staley. I’d much rather have money on the team playing him versus money on his team.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz.