“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
Week 2 of the NFL season saw Overs dominate, even though I didn’t. However, I am not deterred, and I hope your wagers went well.
Before we get into my best bets, just some basics. Nothing makes football better than having a few bucks on the action, so if you are looking for some help with wagers every week, I’ve got you covered.
In addition to giving you picks in this weekly column, I will also be throwing in my Survivor plays at the end of this, because why not?
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Lastly, don’t forget to check out my digital gambling show and podcast. We appreciate everyone who has listened and can’t wait to provide you with some winners. As a reminder, the college football-focused episodes — presented by Big Noon Kickoff — are released on Thursdays, while the NFL-themed episodes drop on Fridays.
Now, let’s get into the fun. Here are my best bets for the Week 3 NFL slate.
(All times ET)
Last Week: 0-4 (Season: 2-6)
Titans at Browns (1 p.m., CBS)
The Nick Chubb injury will likely steer people off the Browns, but this is a good chance to buy low on Cleveland.
The Browns defense is still one of the best in the league and should be able to do something the Chargers couldn’t last week: pressure Ryan Tannehill. This should be an offensive effort closer to what we saw from the Titans in New Orleans.
Cleveland did everything but win Monday night, and it will get right here.
PICK: Browns (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
Bills at Commanders (1 p.m., CBS)
I was all over the Broncos last week, and at 21-3, I felt pretty good about my position. Then the Commanders offense got going, and the Denver defense couldn’t get off the field.
I give a ton of credit to Eric Bienemy for the play calls and Sam Howell for executing the game plan.
The Bills predictably blew the lowly Raiders out, but I don’t expect Buffalo to have an easy time here. We already know Josh Allen is a turnover-prone QB and the Washington D is an aggressive bunch.
I give the Commanders a good chance to move to 3-0 here.
PICK: Commanders (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)
Eagles at Buccaneers (7:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN+)
This line looks eerily low, but I’m gonna bite.
I don’t think the Eagles are the team they were last year, but despite being 2-0, there really isn’t much to like about the Buccaneers. They won a turnover fest in Minnesota and then beat arguably the worst team in the league in Chicago.
The Eagles defense is the best unit on the field, and I’d expect it to show that here.
PICK: Eagles (-4.5) to win by more than 4.5 points
Patriots at Jets (1 p.m., CBS)
We’ve seen the results of Zach Wilson against the Patriots defense: a QBR in the low 20s, 3 INT and 6 sacks. The Jets have scored 20 points in two games. It ain’t pretty.
The 0-2 Pats are desperate for a win and, at the very least, will keep a shorthanded Jets offense in check.
PICK: Jets team total Under 17.5
Survivor Plays
Tread lightly: Seattle Seahawks and Miami Dolphins
These two home favorites of right around a TD are on my stay-away list.
We’ve all seen how bad the Panthers and Broncos have looked this year, but I’m being careful here. We’ve seen Seattle lose at home already to the Rams, and despite the win in Detroit, the Seahawks defense showed it can still give up the big play.
Meanwhile, the Broncos look as bad as they were last year. And after blowing a huge lead to Washington, wouldn’t it be perfect for Denver to head to Miami and at least throw a scare into the 2-0 Dolphins, who just beat the Pats in New England?
Risk/reward: Detroit Lions
I’m not in on Atlanta at all, but the number keeps falling. I think Desmond Ridder will eventually have to make a play. But on the road for the first time, I’m not sure if this is the spot.
The Lions carry some risk, but if you have multiple entries and don’t want to use one of the obvious plays, this is as good a roll of the dice as there is.
Top pick: Kansas City
You might want to save the Chiefs, who could pretty much be used any week. But there’s also a part of me that wants to advance and not have to sweat. And you’ll be cool as a cucumber with the Chiefs against the lowly Bears.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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