The NFL calendar is 18 weeks for 17 games, but the ebbs and flows of the league go by in four-week increments.
Teams usually game plan off of the last four weeks of film, and league trends tend to follow.
So, while we only have three weeks of NFL action so far in the 2023 season, it would be wise to withhold strong judgments on teams until they’ve played a full four weeks.
With all that said, it’s fair to start wagering against bad football teams. No matter the number of weeks left in the season or the sport’s month-to-month nature, these teams will stink. You’ll see where I am going with this below.
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So here are my two early wagers for the fourth NFL weekend.
Broncos at Bears (1 p.m., CBS)
The Denver Broncos lost 70-20 against the Miami Dolphins, allowing 10 offensive touchdowns. It was an embarrassing result for a roster with enough talent not to lose a game like an FCS opponent against Georgia.
With how poorly the Broncos played on Sunday, it would be a reasonable expectation that the point spread for their upcoming game on the road at Chicago would be adjusted to reflect the 50-point loss. Nope. In fact, the line has moved in their direction, with the Broncos gaining a full point against the Bears.
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The Broncos opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and now the number sits at 3.5. You have no choice but to hammer the Broncos in this spot. Oddsmakers are telling you that the Chicago Bears are an awful football team.
The Bears are such a dumpster fire that a fellow 0-3 team off a historic loss is more than a field-goal favorite in Chicago!
The Broncos lost by 1, 2 and then 50, so it’s reasonable to assume that the 50-point game is the outlier.
Meanwhile, Chicago has lost by 18, 10 and 31, progressively looking worse each weekend. Their quarterback was openly revolting against the offense before the Chiefs loss, their defensive coordinator resigned and, after watching them against the Chiefs, there’s not much spirit left on this Bears team.
This is one of those times when Vegas is telling you where your money should go. It’s the Broncos.
PICK: Broncos (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
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Chiefs at Jets (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)
The Jets are a hot mess on offense with Zach Wilson at quarterback and rather than taking them to cover a nearly 10-point spread on the road, we will just continue to wager against Wilson.
Wilson has started 24 games. He’s completed 54.9% of passes with 17 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. He’s played in three games this season, virtually starting all three because of the Rodgers injury so early in Week 1. In those contests, the Jets offense has scored 16 points, followed by 10 points in back-to-back games.
The Chiefs defense is ranked fifth in EPA and yards per play and has only allowed 33 total points this season. It’s the best defense they’ve had in Patrick Mahomes five seasons.
One of the calling cards of a Steve Spagnuolo defense is their complex pressure packages, and I’m fearful for Wilson against this type of defense. He does not play with confidence, and now you add an aggressive defense that pressures from all over the field, and his ability to complete passes will be hampered.
The Jets can try to rush the football, but they are middle of the pack at that, too. And against the Chiefs, you can’t rush the ball to win the game.
I do not see the Jets scoring 17 or more points in this game.
PICK: Jets team total Under 16.5 total points
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