Alaina Getzenberg is a staff writer who covers the Buffalo Bills and the NFL. She joined ESPN in 2021. Alaina was previously a beat reporter for the Charlotte Observer and has also worked for CBS Sports and the Dallas Morning News. She is a graduate of the University of California, Berkeley. You can follow her via Twitter @agetzenberg.
ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — A year ago, the Buffalo Bills were preseason favorites to reach the Super Bowl.
Optimism was high after they filled a major hole by signing pass-rusher Von Miller, finished 2021 with the league’s top defense, and watched quarterback Josh Allen go without an interception during a postseason that ended with a close loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Last season, the Bills did win 13 games and a third-straight AFC East title while dealing with a series of physical and mental hurdles along the way: the death of Dawson Knox‘s brother, Luke; two deadly Buffalo-area snowstorms; major injuries to Micah Hyde (neck) and Miller (right ACL); and safety Damar Hamlin‘s cardiac arrest during a Week 17 game that was ultimately canceled. Their postseason ended with their worst performance of the year in a 27-10 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
After the disappointing finish — and four-straight playoff appearances without reaching a Super Bowl — a new question arose: Was the Bills’ title window starting to close?
Some players have acknowledged thinking about it. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs agreed there’s an urgency for the team to win its first Super Bowl.
“100 percent,” Diggs said during training camp. “I also was on a team that had a window just like that. When I was in Minnesota [2015-19], we had a real window. We had the No. 1 defense and a good offense — good offensive scheme as well, great coaches. We had a great year, an OK year, a good year, an OK year. So, seeing that window and this is a way different team than that team. That’s where some of the frustration could come from. I’ve been here before….
“Obviously, I want to take those next steps and get in there.”
The conversation about the Bills’ window only became louder after their “Monday Night Football” opponent, the New York Jets, traded for future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC/ESPN+). The AFC East is now arguably among the most competitive divisions in the league, and the AFC is loaded at the quarterback position with Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and others. The Bills’ odds have slipped some from last season; they have the fourth-best chance of winning their conference and reaching Super Bowl LVIII, according to Caesar’s Sportsbook.
But is there more to this conversation than this Bills’ roster having the makeup to win it all? Instead of the window closing, could it be more like a chapter coming to an end as long-time starters turn over? As the Bills embark on the seventh year with coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane in charge, there are several variables that could impact their contender status heading into the future.
Josh Allen factor: When asked about the Bengals’ title window earlier this year, Burrow said: “[The Bengals’] window is my whole career.” The same could hold true for the Bills and Allen. As former Bills general manager Bill Polian put it, “as long as [Allen] is playing at a high level, the window is open.”
Since being drafted by the Bills with the seventh overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft out of Wyoming, Allen has developed into one of the league’s top quarterbacks and is under contract through 2028. Allen ranks second in total QBR (72.1) since 2020 behind only Mahomes. Allen’s progress could be a model for developing quarterbacks, going from a combined 56.3% completion percentage his first two seasons to 65.2% in the three years since.
Jackson is the only quarterback to rush for more yards since 2020 than Allen (1,946).
Allen has been central to what the Bills do on offense. No one has accounted for a higher percentage of an offense’s yards (76.6%) and touchdowns (80.2%) than Allen since 2020. On top of that, he has accounted for 26.7% of the team’s rush yards.
Going into this season, Allen has some things to work on, including improving his decision-making after leading the league in turnovers (19) in 2022, including five red zone interceptions. Allen has not missed a game since his rookie year, but no quarterback has been hit more than Allen since 2020. As he gets older, staying healthy and avoiding unnecessary hits will be key.
Allen has also become one of the team’s best selling points, including helping to bring in Miller.
“Josh Allen came here and became a creature,” Miller said in March 2022. “He became a superstar quarterback, and he’s one of the biggest reasons why I wanted to be a part of this. I believe in him, I believe in this offense.”
Being able to attract players as the team navigates tighter cap space is important. This offseason, the Bills signed pass-rusher Leonard Floyd late in free agency to a one-year deal that includes $7 million guaranteed. The former Ram is the sort of player who may not have been a fit in the past.
“People like to play with Josh Allen,” general manager Brandon Beane said. “I think that helps. And I think people see that we’ve been close. And they’re going to look at themselves as maybe I’m one of those players that can help differentiate it in some of the biggest moments.”
Allen, 27, is entering his sixth NFL season and should be in the prime of his career. The quarterback said he’s never been more focused coming into a season, in some part due to a sense of urgency from the older players.
“Josh is going to play another, who knows, 15 years hopefully,” Hyde said. “For him to be saying that, understanding the urgency for the older guys, that’s a wise move on his part.”
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Contracts and age: The reality is that some of the key contributors to the Bills — outside of Allen — are closer to the end of their careers than the beginning.
Nickel corner Taron Johnson told ESPN he’s thought about whether this could be the final season together for a secondary led by 32-year-old safeties Jordan Poyer and Hyde.
“Sometimes they talk about it … but most of the time it’s just like, I’m just so thankful to even be with them for this long. So just that alone and even, it’s special this year just because we didn’t know if they was gonna come back.”
Of the Bills’ defensive starters — including Miller who remains on the physically unable to perform list as he comes back from a right ACL injury — five are over 30 with five other players over 30 on the roster.
The Bills’ roster is the fourth oldest in the NFL (average of 27.1), per Elias Sports. The Jets are the league’s oldest team at an average age of 27.5.
