Sure, there are other interesting games on the college football Week 8 oddsboard. But none of them leap off that board and grab you like the FOX Big Noon battle taking place at the Horseshoe on Saturday.
No. 7 Penn State meets No. 3 Ohio State, with the winner amping up its Big Ten credentials and remaining a legit contender in the College Football Playoff odds market.
BetMGM senior trader Cameron Drucker and college football betting expert Paul Stone provide the inside scoop from both sides of the counter on this massive matchup.
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First off, I’d highly recommend tuning in at 10 a.m. ET for the Big Noon Kickoff on FOX pregame show, which will originate from Columbus. No doubt, FOX Sports wagering expert Chris Fallica will dispense some notable nuggets ahead of the noon ET kickoff.
As for the game itself, let’s start with this interesting note: Back in August, BetMGM and several other sportsbooks had preseason odds up for a number of key college football games, Penn State-Ohio State among them.
The spread: Ohio State -10.5. Which means if you’d bet Penn State +10.5 in August, then you’d be in a pretty nice position to come back this week on Ohio State -4.5. For a few moments this week, you could’ve even gotten Ohio State -4, and perhaps -4 pops up again.
Either way, it represents a nice middle position: If Ohio State wins by a touchdown, and you win both bets. So here’s hoping some bettors availed themselves of that opportunity.
What is the bigger picture for Penn State and Ohio State in the Big Ten?
Line Sways Penn State’s Way
On Sunday night, Penn State-Ohio State went back on BetMGM’s board at Buckeyes -5.5. The line dipped to -4 by Tuesday, then went to -4.5 on Wednesday.
“As I’m sure you expect, we will be needing the Nittany Lions here come Saturday, almost certainly,” Drucker said. “It’s been all money on Ohio State thus far, and I would assume that continues all week.”
That might be so, but other sportsbooks noted interest by midweek in road underdog Penn State. At DraftKings, for example, 54% of early spread bets/69% of early spread dollars are on the Nittany Lions.
Ohio State is drawing better support on the moneyline at DraftKings, with 53% of bets/72% of money on the Buckeyes. Bettors seem more willing to lay the -200 price (bet $10 to win $15 total) that requires only that Ohio State win the game, not cover the spread.
Sharpen Up
Stone, a Texas-based handicapper, is partaking in both the spread and the total on this major matchup. He’s got a smaller play on Ohio State -4, grabbing the best number so far in the limited time -4 has been available. And Stone has a larger position on Under 45.5 points.
“Both quarterbacks — Penn State’s Drew Allar and Ohio State’s Kyle McCord — are first-year starters who lack this type of big-game experience,” Stone said. “These are two of the top defensive teams in all of college football. I look for it to be a lower-scoring affair.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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