By Will Hill
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
For the second day in a row, we get a Game 7 to determine who advances to the World Series! It does not get much better than this.
The ALCS decider was a bit anticlimactic as the “road-field advantage” prevailed throughout for just the second time in the history of seven-game series’ (in any sport), with the Texas Rangers scoring early and often to decisively dethrone the Houston Astros.
Now that the defending champs are eliminated, so too are all six division winners from the regular season.
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Game 7 of the NLCS is a pitching rematch of Game 3, with rookie Brandon Pfaadt going for the Arizona Diamondbacks and Ranger Suárez on the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are sizable -175 favorites with the Over/Under for total runs scored at 9.
The winner will head to Arlington, Texas, for Game 1 of the World Series on Friday night, while the loser will have a few months off to get ready for spring training.
As we get ready to crown a National League champion, let’s find a winner for Game 7.
Before we get to my pick, let’s review how we got to this point. The Phillies won the first two games convincingly, then blew late leads in Games 3 and 4 before winning Game 5. This series could have, and probably should have, been over in five games with the Phillies on their way back to the World Series.
The Diamondbacks deserve a ton of credit and have far exceeded anyone’s expectations. However, winning in that building to avoid elimination twice in a row is a lofty expectation, especially for such a young team.
The Phillies are the superior squad. They have the better lineup, better bullpen and a raucous home crowd.
I like the Phillies to win and go back to the World Series, and I’m confident enough to lay the -175 price. However, if you want a little more bang for your buck, Zack Wheeler at +1600 for NLCS MVP may be worth taking a chance on.
The Phillies are 2-0 in his starts this series, and 1-3 when he doesn’t start. Having pitched Saturday, Wheeler will likely be available to pitch multiple innings and possibly earn his third win (or maybe a save) of this series, as he’s allowed three runs in 13 dominant innings so far.
Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber is the rightful favorite to win the NLCS MVP award as he’s homered five times in the series. But, if Schwarber has a quiet night at the plate, and Wheeler has another dominant appearance, the voters could reward Wheeler. At +1600, it’s worth a shot.
PICK: Phillies to win Game 7 (-175, bet $10 to win $15.71 total)
BONUS PICK: Zack Wheeler to win NLCS MVP (+1600, bet $10 to win $170 total)
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear’s Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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