After a chaotic final weekend, the 2023 MLB regular season has come to a close and the playoffs are about to begin! Most teams did not even know their exact seeding until Saturday, and on Sunday, we got a dramatic last twist in the rollercoaster American League West race as the Houston Astros prevailed again in what at times over the last few days seemed like the least likely outcome.
Yes, after all that, it was the Astros who joined the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles as division winners who clinched a bye to the wild-card round.
Never a doubt. I totally wasn’t freaking out despite doubling, tripling and quadrupling down on my opinion that they would win the division after the trade deadline. In the wise words of Alex Bregman, people were wondering what it was going to be like if the Astros did not pull out another A.L. West title. I guess we’ll never know.
Just like the Astros, I feel like my luck is picking up. Two years ago — despite accurately predicting the Braves would beat the Astros in the World Series that season before Spring Training — I got cute with my bracket when the postseason came around and ended up getting everything wrong. Last year was a bit better, but I think I’m going to nail it this time around.
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Without further ado, below are my full predictions for every single round of the 2023 MLB postseason. Let’s get to it.
WILD CARD ROUND
No. 3 Minnesota Twins over No. 6 Toronto Blue Jays
Don’t sleep on the Twins. They pitch really, really well. Sonny Gray was one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball this past year, and Joe Ryan was really good as well. They’ve got Jhoan Durán as an excellent closer throwing 103 mph past hitters in the bullpen. Carlos Correa is the x-factor for Minnesota here after an injury-marred season, but we know what he can do in the playoffs. The Blue Jays may have thought they dodged a bullet by avoiding the 99-win A.L. East rival Rays, but I think the Twins will make Toronto pay for possibly overlooking them.
No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays over No. 5 Texas Rangers
This series, on the other hand, is one I think will have a lot of offense. It also features two teams on seemingly different trajectories. The Rangers have one of the best lineups in baseball but it didn’t go great down the stretch. The Rays were up and down after their historic start to the season but have been playing great baseball heading into these playoffs and came really close to catching the 101-win Orioles in the A.L. East standings. This one might just come down to the Rays’ home-field advantage.
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No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks over No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers
Let me take a moment to flex. On April 14, I said on Flippin’ Bats that the D-Backs would make the playoffs when few others believed that was possible, and here we are. Arizona is a very young, unproven team going up against a great pitching staff in Milwaukee. But if there is ever a series that the D-Backs could compete in, I do think it is one like this, where they can get guys on base, wreak havoc on the basepaths and manufacture runs. They took advantage of the new MLB rules this year as much as anyone did thanks in part to their youth. They match up well against the Brewers’ pitching and I think they can scratch across a couple of runs in a low-scoring series.
No. 4 Philadelphia Phillies over No. 5 Miami Marlins
The Phillies are one of the most dangerous teams in the entire playoff field and especially among the wild-card teams, and I do not think they will have much difficulty handling the Marlins in this series. Miami is a good team that deserves to be in these playoffs, but I think Philadelphia is just too loaded for the Marlins to handle.
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Division Series
No. 2 Astros over No. 3 Twins
When you’re a team as heavily built on pitching as Minnesota is, playing in the wild-card round really hurts because it forces you to use your best pitchers before facing a top seed. I think the Astros take care of business here by jumping out to a series lead and turning up the pressure on the Twins.
No. 1 Orioles over No. 4 Rays
I really struggled with this one. I ended up going with the Orioles, and I think it’s mainly because I want to sit in the “Birdbath” outfield section when we travel to the American League Championship series. In all seriousness, though, the Orioles played the Rays well all year long, and while that does not always translate to the playoffs (like the Dodgers and Padres last year), I think it will here.
No. 2 Dodgers over No. 6 Diamondbacks
Another intra-division matchup! I think it is just too risky to bet on the Dodgers suffering another stunning NLDS upset to a division rival for the second straight postseason. Los Angeles has consistently beaten Arizona for years, and I don’t see that changing here.
No. 1 Braves over No. 4 Phillies
Just like the Dodgers, I don’t think the Braves will let history repeat itself against the Phillies team that knocked them out in last year’s NLDS. The Braves have been the best team in baseball all year long, and they want revenge against Philadelphia.
League Championship Series
Astros over Orioles
Baltimore’s familiarity with the Rays will help a young Orioles squad that has almost no playoff experience. But that youth will catch up to them against the most October-hardened team in the entire postseason field. The Orioles’ time is coming, but the American League still runs through Houston.
Braves over Dodgers
The 2020 and 2021 editions of the NLCS were thrilling, and we could finally get our trilogy after that got derailed last year. Picking the best team in baseball against the Dodgers in the playoffs just feels like a no-brainer.
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World Series
Astros over Braves
This was my prediction at the beginning of Spring Training (months before my brother was traded back to Houston, by the way) — a 2021 World Series rematch with a different ending. I do feel like the Braves have a great chance at going all the way, but the Astros clinching the No. 2 seed was enough to make me stick with my prediction. Atlanta has a deeper lineup, but also some pitching concerns. Houston has enough talent and certainly more than enough experience, and the Astros’ pitching will be well-rested for an October run after narrowly avoiding the wild card round. The Houston Astros will repeat as World Series champions.
Ben Verlander is an MLB Analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the “Flippin’ Bats” podcast. Born and raised in Richmond, Virginia, Verlander was an All-American at Old Dominion University before he joined his brother, Justin, in Detroit as a 14th-round pick of the Tigers in 2013. He spent five years in the Tigers organization. Follow him on Twitter @BenVerlander.
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