It’s only been four weeks, and the NFL season is already getting wacky.
There are a ton of fun storylines in the league right now. Is Houston actually good? Are the Chiefs not as potent as before? Is Philly underrated or overrated? Will the Bears get the first two picks in the NFL Draft? And is Cincinnati in danger of missing the playoffs?
All of this uncertainty also provides betting opportunities.
Let’s try to take advantage of those. Here are my best bets for Week 5.
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Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)
I’m going against the Texans this week, refusing to believe the hype. Yes, CJ Stroud played extremely well against the Steelers last week at home. He didn’t get sacked and threw for 306 yards and two TDs. Stroud hasn’t trailed in the last two weeks, and the hot early starts have made life easy for him. But Atlanta has one thing that Jacksonville and Pittsburgh do not: the ability to stop the run with Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata.
Atlanta’s Arthur Smith has gone 1-1 vs. the 49ers in the last two seasons, and the Texans offense and defense aim to mimic what the 49ers had, as both units are coached by former 49ers coaches (Bobby Slowik, OC; Demeco Ryans has called defensive plays).
Of course, Houston’s defense doesn’t have the talent, as it leads the NFL in missed tackles (45). This fell all the way to pick ’em, so you’re not getting the best number, but given Atlanta’s conservative nature, I hope that the public comes in on the Texans gamely, and you can get this once again at a pick ’em.
PICK: Falcons (-1) to win by more than 1 point
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Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings (4:25 p.m., CBS)
Through four games, Patrick Mahomes is off to the worst start of his career in nearly every statistical category. We can blame young wide receivers. We can also blame some September regression after five perfect opening months to start his career.
The Mahomes-Reid Chiefs haven’t fared well ATS, laying big points on the road. Predictably, money came in on Minnesota this week. I don’t see it. The Vikings defense is blitzing 57% of the time, by far, most in the NFL. Good luck blitzing Mahomes.
But it gets worse.
Despite the blitzing, the Vikings only rank 29th in the NFL with a pressure rate of 17%. So they’re leaving their below-average secondary on islands and still not getting pressure. K.C. probably races out to a big lead, and the Vikings put up points late in a fourth quarter full of garbage time as the Chiefs rest starters for a short week trip to rival Denver. So give me the Over.
PICK: Over 52.5 points scored combined by both teams
PICK: Chiefs team total Over 28.5 points
Patrick Mahomes takes ownership over Chiefs struggles
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (4:05 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)
The schedule says the Rams are at home, but you can be sure that Sofi Stadium will be at least 60% Eagles fans.
The Eagles are undefeated and the Rams are 4-0 ATS (or 3-0-1, depending on what number you got them against the Bengals). The Eagles haven’t been overly impressive, letting the Vikings make it interesting and needing overtime to dispatch pesky Washington. The secondary isn’t nearly as strong as last year, with CB Josh Jobe grading out as the 106th CB (out of 109) and Darius Slay struggling badly as well.
Where Philly is stacked is on the defensive line, with Jalen Carter’s rookie year off to an incredible start (20 pressures in just 125 snaps). Regardless of whether Cooper Kupp plays or not, I have to side with the Eagles here, as Matthew Stafford is not 100 percent and barely survived that Colts game with his hip in rough shape.
You can limp around against Indy — that won’t work against Philly.
PICK: Eagles (-4) to win by more than 4 points
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Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals (4:05 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)
All week, the narrative about this game has been how poor the Bengals have played (true!) and how awful Joe Burrow has been (fact!).
Burrow, due to a calf injury, has been unable to push the ball downfield, going just 11-of-38 with two interceptions on passes more than 10 yards downfield. Defenses are playing press coverage and getting to Burrow quickly, and Cincinnati is tied for last in the NFL at 4.0 yards per play. Furthermore, it hasn’t scored a touchdown on the road.
Nobody is backing Cincinnati, which one month ago was a very popular Super Bowl pick. Anytime it dipped below 3 to 2.5, the big money came in on the Bengals.
PICK: Bengals (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX Sports, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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