2023 NFL Week 6 odds: Can the Broncos score? Other Week 6 best bets, picks

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Five weeks of the NFL season are down, and I do not remember a time when the top and bottom of the league are so defied this early in the season.

The Chiefs, Dolphins, 49ers and Eagles are the cream of the crop, while the Panthers, Giants, Patriots, Bears and Broncos dwell in the basement.

I’m going to use this weekend to wager against the bad teams because it’s hard to see them being competitive right now.

Let’s take a look at the odds.

Giants vs. Buffalo (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

The Giants have played five football games and have failed to score an offensive touchdown in any of those games. They’ve scored 0, 0, 6, 3 and 3 on offense in their five matchups so far this year. Their offensive line is a dumpster fire, with backups not communicating and not able to pick up any line stunts. It’s possible the Giants get left tackle Andrew Thomas back this weekend and that would surely help, but without Daniel Jones, I don’t have much hope this offense will turn into a juggernaut early in Buffalo.

On the flip side are the Bills, who lost in London on Sunday after a lackluster opening to that game. I don’t expect the same to happen on Sunday. They are going to come out roaring after that bad loss, and they will take it out on the Giants defense. What is the Giants defense going to do to stop Buffalo? It doesn’t have game-wreckers. The Bills are going to steamroll this Giants team in the first half.

I like the Bills to score Over 30.5 points because they’ve shown themselves to score a ton of points after a loss. Since the start of the 2021 season, they are averaging 31.7 points per game after their 10 regular-season losses. The lowest output was 23 points against a good Ravens team early last season. This New York team is not that, and we’ve seen the Bills already score 38, 37 and 48 points this season.

I think they rain down the points this weekend.

PICK: Bills -7.5 first half
PICK: Bills team total Over 30.5 points scored

Broncos vs. Chiefs (8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Prime Video)

The Broncos are close to a franchise meltdown after another loss on Sunday to the Jets.

Denver is 1-4 and head to Kansas City on a short week to play a Chiefs team that has owned it. The Broncos have won a Super Bowl more recently than they’ve beaten the Chiefs. Their offense has shown the ability to score points at times, but it is streaky more than consistent: 21 points in the first 20 minutes against the Commanders and then not another touchdown until a Hail Mary in the final seconds; seven first-half points against the Bears before 24 second-half points.

The point is the Broncos offense is not reliable at all.

Denver is playing a Chiefs defense that has carried the team. K.C.’s defense has not allowed more than 20 points in any game this season. It also loves to bring pressure and rattle quarterbacks, using its much improved secondary to play in man coverage. Pressuring Russell Wilson will force him into errors and the Broncos will not score points.

PICK: Broncos Under 18.5 total points scored

Is Russell Wilson the Broncos’ solution or problem?

New England Patriots win total

The Patriots are either the third-worst team in the NFL or the fourth, depending on how you compare them to the Bears. They lost 38-3 two weekends ago and after that embarrassment, they lost 34-0 at home to the Saints in Week 5. There is putrid football being played by Bill Belichick’s squad and there’s no light at the end of the tunnel. Their two best defensive players are out for the season and on offense, quarterback Mac Jones has been awful. They have no receiving weapons to help him and have no running game.

So where are the five wins coming from for the Patriots to get Over 5.5 wins? They have 50-50 games against the Raiders, Commanders, Colts, Giants, Broncos and Jets left on their schedule. If they win four of those six games, they’d need an upset along the way to get to six wins. If they go 3-3 over those six games, they need two upsets to get over six.

Do you see that happening? I do not.

PICK: Patriots Under 5.5 wins

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.