The NFL continues to be an unpredictable beast with shocking upsets every week.
Over the last several weeks, however, one thing that has been consistent is that the public is getting hammered.
But this shouldn’t be a surprise because Vegas and the powers that be don’t build those towers by losing more than they win. Teams that got 70% or more of tickets went 1-7 against the spread (ATS) on Sunday.
So keep that in mind as you place your bets for NFL Week 8. Let’s dive into it.
ADVERTISEMENT
Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports app)
This number is just too high for me considering the Cowboys have not played as well when facing quality quarterback and coaching combinations.
The Rams’ roster might not be deep, but quarterback Matthew Stafford is playing well, and Sean McVay is coaching his butt off.
The Cowboys have dominated teams with quarterbacks like Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson and Mac Jones. However, when they played the 49ers, it was a blowout loss. When they played the Chargers, it ended up being a close, three-point win. Now the Cowboys get a Rams team that isn’t deep but plays close games.
This matchup will be within six points, and I’ll take the Rams to cover.
PICK: Rams (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)
Patriots beat Bills in Week 7, Bill Belichick earns 300th career win
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Are the Dolphins playing a physical team that can bully them at the line of scrimmage? No.
Are the Dolphins playing a slow team without any ability to keep up with their team speed? Yes.
OK, then take the Dolphins to cover. The winning margins for the Dolphins when they aren’t playing the Buffalo Bills or Philadelphia Eagles on the road are two, seven, 50, 15, and 21. The Patriots lost to Miami by seven in Week 2, and while they did just beat the Bills on Sunday, their team is worse now than when they played earlier.
The Pats don’t have their best pass rusher or cornerback, and you need those to stay close against the Dolphins. Miami just lost to the Eagles in Week 7, so the squad Sunday will be ready for action next Sunday and kick the Patriots’ butts.
PICK: Dolphins (-10.5) to win by more than 10.5 points
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens CRUSH Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
This is a fade of the Falcons who are not a good football team, even though they’ve won four games this season.
They defeated the lowly Panthers, then they beat the Packers by one point after being down 12 in the fourth quarter. They needed a late comeback to take care of the Texans by two and just beat the Buccaneers by three in Week 7.
Quarterback Desmond Ridder is a turnover machine, and he’s constantly finding new ways to give the ball to the other team. The Falcons are on the road for the second straight week and any time I can fade them, I’m all for it.
The Titans aren’t a particularly good squad, but they are off a bye and a home underdog. Both of these situations are where the Titans tend to excel under Mike Vrabel. If the Titans are a home underdog I’m wagering on them.
Also, Vrabel is 9-1 ATS and 8-2 straight up (SU) in regular season games in which he had eight or more days from his previous game played (excluding season openers). Also, he’s 11-5 ATS and SU as a home underdog in the regular season.
PICK: Titans (+1) to lose by fewer than 1 point (or win outright)
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
