By Will Hill
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to meet the Texas Rangers in the World Series on FOX and the FOX Sports App. Let’s just say if you predicted this matchup before the season, you’re lying or now filthy rich.
The odds of these two teams facing off in the Fall Classic were 1750-to-1 before Opening Day.
Both of these squads needed to survive the best 2-3 Wild Card series before winning in the Divisional Round and LCS, and in the six combined series’, they were the lower seed and didn’t have the benefit of home-field advantage.
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Speaking of home-field advantage, it hasn’t mattered. The Rangers and Diamondbacks are a combined 14-2 on the road in this postseason, with both winning games 6 and 7 away from home in the League Championship Series, as the road team remarkably went 7-0 in the ALCS.
With 12 teams now getting into the MLB playoffs and the randomness that inherently comes with the game of baseball, perhaps we should get used to expecting the unexpected come October.
Regardless of how unlikely this matchup was before the season or even before the start of the postseason, these two teams won the games on the field and earned their way into the Fall Classic. It’s new, it’s different, and it’s time to crown a champion, which brings us to Game 1.
I am not dismissing the upstart Diamondbacks’ chances of winning this series. How could you after what they have accomplished?
But the Diamondbacks, for as great of a story as they are, were outscored by 15 runs over the course of this season. To put that in perspective, the Mets went 75-87, traded most of their good players in July and were only outscored by 12 runs this season. The Rangers, on the other hand, were +165 in run differential this season and get the first two and last two games (if necessary) at home.
I know home-field advantage hasn’t held up nor meant much in these playoffs, but the Diamondbacks’ two best-starting pitchers have large discrepancies between their numbers at home versus on the road.
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Game 1 starter Zac Gallen will pitch in Arlington Friday night, and on the road, Gallen has a pedestrian 4.42 ERA — nearly two runs higher than his sparkling 2.47 home era. Gallen has also struggled to keep the ball in the park as a visitor, allowing 15 home runs on the road as opposed to just seven at home.
It’s been six years since we got a seven-game World Series. I look for the Rangers to win Game 1 at home, considering Gallen’s road struggles.
Looking at the series as a whole, look for the Diamondbacks to stretch this to Game 7 before the Rangers ultimately prevail in a long series.
Game 1 PICK: Rangers moneyline (-166) to win (bet $10 to win $16.02 total)
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear’s Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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