The Astros and Phillies are four wins apiece from a World Series rematch. The Rangers and Diamondbacks have yet to lose this postseason. Three of the four league championship series participants are wild-card teams that didn’t have a five-day layoff before their playoff openers.
So, who’s primed to reach the Fall Classic?
FOX Sports MLB experts Deesha Thosar, Rowan Kavner, Jordan Shusterman and Jake Mintz are tackling those topics and more in our weekly roundtable.
1. What would you change, if anything, with MLB‘s current playoff format?
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Shusterman: Nothing! There’s part of me that still misses the one-game wild card, but I also think that the added excitement in the regular season from adding that third wild card has made the current format worthwhile. I don’t care about fixing the off days the teams with byes have to “deal with,” but I don’t hate the idea of moving the LDS up one day to put further pressure on wild-card teams to win in two days if they want to line up their pitching. Off days aren’t bad because teams get rusty, they are bad because we don’t have more October baseball to watch!
Kavner: I don’t have much of a problem with it, but I would re-seed after the wild-card series (I mentioned this before, but in my make-believe world that will never happen, I’d have the top seed pick who it wants to play after the wild-card series concludes). I know some people have a problem with the five-day layoff. While I think there is something to that hiatus impacting teams, the reigning champion Astros sure don’t seem to have a problem with it, and there isn’t one division winner that would choose to switch places with a team that has to play in the wild-card round. Layoff or not, small-sample baseball brings randomness. That is not a bad thing.
Thosar: If anything, I would want to go back to the one-game wild card rather than the current best-of-three format. I think the one game made for a much more entertaining and exciting product, and that would also allow a shorter layoff period for the division winners. While I don’t think the five-day layoff is to blame for the early exits of the Braves, Dodgers and Orioles, I think the longer the offense is off, the worse it will be when games resume. We should all want to see the game’s best hitters perform at their best in the postseason, and if a one-game wild card with a three-day layoff (for the top two seeds) allows for that, then I’m all-in.
Mintz: Nothing. Win the baseball games in front of you and cut the whining. Every single team would take the bye and the off days. All this hullabaloo is based on way too small of a sample size and a bunch of fans making excuses. October isn’t about fairness, it’s about entertainment. If we wanted fairness, MLB would be like European soccer where we give the trophy to the team with the best regular-season record. Houston had zero problem with the layoff; the O’s, Dodgers and Braves just sucked up the bed at an inconvenient time. Simple as that.
2. Are the 2023 Astros as good as last year’s World Series winners?
Thosar: This year’s Astros took a step back in starting pitching and a step forward in hitting, and they’re still the favorites to repeat as champions. So, they are just as good as last year, but if anything their lineup is deeper this postseason. José Abreu has found his power stroke, and both José Altuve and Yordan Álvarez have already crushed more home runs than they did in all 13 of their playoff games last October. Houston’s starting pitching is not as reliable this time around, with Framber Valdez scuffling in his 2023 postseason debut and Lance McCullers Jr. on the shelf with a season-ending injury. But that back end of the bullpen is as good as it gets, with Bryan Abreu setting up for closer Ryan Pressly. Once again we’re looking at a well-rounded Astros team that looks like it can go all the way.
3. Which phase do you feel more likely to sustain for the Rangers in the ALCS: their pitching or hitting?
Kavner: Definitely the hitting. Their offense is what got them here. When healthy, as it is now, it has been the most dangerous group in the American League. The Rangers’ lineup completely overwhelmed two of the best teams and pitching staffs in baseball to get to this point. Rookies Evan Carter and Josh Jung look unfazed by the pressures of the postseason. Corey Seager is letting everyone know why he was the 2020 World Series MVP. This offense comes in waves. The Astros’ rotation will have to earn it.
The ‘MLB on FOX’ crew discuss Astros-Rangers in the ALCS
4. Why do you think Houston is so much better on the road than at home this season, and should that be a concern in this series?
Thosar: The Astros are a case study in how to use the opposition’s hostility to their advantage. Tell them they can’t do something, and they’ll prove you wrong. Boo them, and they’ll respond with their best work. The postseason atmosphere that can typically rattle teams just doesn’t affect the Astros. Their experience and veteran leadership lend to an unfazed mentality on the field. Their rookies are developed with confidence, under the clear intention of competing in the World Series one day. It’s an approach that starts in the minors and is only accentuated in the big leagues. The Astros grow in the face of adversity, a breathing example of the phrase “pressure makes diamonds.”
As for Houston going 39-42 at Minute Maid Park this season (and then splitting its two playoff games versus the Twins), it’s a strange phenomenon. I asked several Astros what’s behind their home struggles, which are largely reflected in their hitting splits, and they didn’t understand it themselves. But I don’t think their regular-season marks are of particular concern versus Texas, since the Astros have continually proven they can flip a switch in the playoffs and make those external factors moot.
5. How much of a factor are you expecting Max Scherzer to be in this series?
Kavner: These are the moments the Rangers acquired him for, so they kind of have to ride with him if he says he’s ready. That said, he hasn’t pitched in a month, so I still expect Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi to have more of a say in the outcome of this series. Whatever Scherzer provides in a likely abbreviated start is a huge bonus, but the Rangers will need to be ready with contingencies if he doesn’t look or feel right. I’d imagine he gets Game 3, with Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning both ready to go behind him.
6. Let’s rewind time by one week: Would you have considered the Phillies a tougher matchup for the Diamondbacks than the Dodgers?
Shusterman: Yes, absolutely. The Phillies’ pitching had already put them in a tier above the Dodgers, for me, even entering the postseason regardless of the regular-season records. So, Arizona has its hands full for this next round.
Diamondbacks SWEEP Dodgers in dominant fashion
7. Are the Phillies too reliant on the long ball right now?
Mintz: No such thing this time of year. During the postseason, when more off days means teams can roll out their best arms more often, it’s harder than usual to string hits and walks together. That makes the home run ball even more vital than usual. The Phillies, who hit the second-most homers in baseball from July on, have been using this recipe all season. It’s gotten them this far. Ain’t no reason to worry now.
8. What’s been the most significant development for Arizona in these first two rounds?
Shusterman: The reliability of the bullpen. Craig Kimbrel might be making more money this year than the entirety of this D-backs bullpen combined, but this has proven to be a shockingly deep group capable of getting outs in a variety of ways. It doesn’t have as many eye-popping flamethrowers as you’ll see Philly roll out. It’s far more funk than fire, and it’s gotten the job done. I know this much: A whole lot more people are about to learn about rookie southpaw Andrew Saalfrank. He’s going to be asked to get some massive outs in this series.
9. What is notably different about this year’s Phillies compared to the 2022 version that reached the World Series?
Mintz: Last year’s Phillies were the LeBron James “Smiling through it all! Can’t believe this my life” meme. They were an electric night on the town, a surprise behind every corner, a machine being propelled by incredible vibes, machismo and a city of sports freakazoids. And they carried that energy to within two games of a world title.
And while this year’s club won only three more regular-season games than in 2022, it’s straight-up better. The lineup is deeper (Trea Turner effectively replaced Jean Segura; Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh are notably improved at the plate; Nick Castellanos looks more like Nick Castellanos) and the bullpen is much, much more reliable.
But these Phillies have a slightly different flavor of confidence. There is an inevitability to their victories now. Last year was hands off the steering wheel irrational faith, this year is Lewis Hamilton steering a jet-powered supercar. The 2023 Phillies are still a bunch of overconfident himbos swinging for the fences, just a bit more grown up.
Phillies head back to NLCS behind Nick Castellanos’ bat
10a. Who do you predict to win the NLCS?
Mintz: Hard not to pick the Phillies … so I’ll pick the Phillies. The Diamondbacks’ biggest weakness is their pitching depth, a weakness that was mitigated by the short series in the previous two rounds. They have no such protection in the best-of-seven NLCS. Arizona will more or less have to traverse back-to-back bullpen games in Game 3 and Game 4, while Philly can lean on postseason monster Ranger Suárez and then either Taijuan Walker or Cristopher Sánchez.
Add that to the Phillies’ enormous offensive advantage and they seem like the clear favorite. Stellar pitching performances from Zac Gallen and Merril Kelly in Games 1 and 2 could swing the series toward the D-backs; they’ve been bucking expectations all month. But I think the Phillies are a runaway train right now that not even a bunch of snakes can stop.
Shusterman: Phillies in seven. These Snakes are no joke, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull off the upset, as my seven-game call reflects. But this Phillies team is rolling, and the home-field advantage is too strong to pick against.
10b. Who do you predict to win the ALCS?
Thosar: I think this will be a much bigger challenge for the Astros than the ALDS, possibly going down to Game 6 or 7 before it all wraps up. In the end, I think the ‘Stros will prevail because their pitching depth is stronger than Texas’ in a long series, and it has been all year. While Montgomery and Eovaldi are an exciting 1-2 punch, the Rangers have too many questions marks about the health and longevity of Scherzer and Jon Gray, who are not expected to go deep into games, thus putting a strain on the Rangers’ fickle bullpen. So, yes, I’m expecting the Astros to scratch and claw their way back into the World Series.
Kavner: The Astros have the experience and dominated the season series, but teams in the AL West are as unpredictable as it comes. This Rangers offense is on a different level than the last time these teams faced off in early September. Eovaldi is, too. Scherzer adds another wild card to the mix. The Rangers just pulverized the two best teams in the American League, their maligned bullpen held up in the process, and the Astros’ rotation is more vulnerable than it was on its championship run last year. This might go seven, but I think I just talked myself into Texas.
This story was compiled by: Deesha Thosar (@DeeshaThosar), Rowan Kavner (@RowanKavner), Jordan Shusterman and Jake Mintz (@CespedesBBQ)
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