Yes, after two consecutive losses, the bloom is somewhat off the Coach Prime rose.
But there is still a significant contingent eager to back the Colorado Buffaloes.
So once again, a Buffs opponent will likely be a notable need for sportsbooks in the college football Week 6 odds market.
BetMGM senior trader Cameron Drucker and college football betting expert Paul Stone help us dive into Colorado vs. Arizona State.
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Backing the Buffs
Colorado was ostensibly a three-touchdown underdog in each of its past two games, facing top-10 outfits Oregon and Southern Cal. Against the Ducks, the Buffs got waxed 42-6 on the road.
Against the visiting Trojans, Colorado was down by 27 points three times. But the Buffaloes rallied to make it quite interesting, losing 48-41 while covering the spread. That was actually a great outcome for most sportsbooks.
This week, however, Colorado is a 4.5-point favorite at BetMGM. And make no mistake, the casual betting masses are backing Deion Sanders.
“It’s safe to say we will need ASU. But it will be interesting to see where this number closes,” Drucker said, noting the line is down a point from the -5.5 opener. “I don’t see the public jumping off the Buffs train after their gritty performance last week against the Trojans.”
DraftKings Sportsbook is quite lopsided to Colorado on both the spread and the moneyline. As of late Wednesday night, the Buffs were attracting 92% of spread bets/75% of spread dollars.
And on the moneyline of ostensibly -200 — meaning it takes a $20 bet to profit $10, for a total payout of $30 — early action is even heavier to Colorado: 97% of bets and 81% of money.
Questioning Deion Sanders after Colorado’s second-straight loss?
What the Sharp Says
Stone doesn’t have a strong opinion on Colorado-Arizona State, so he’s not wagering on Saturday’s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff. But he’s got thoughts, more so about the rest of Colorado’s season than on this one matchup.
“The betting masses are totally infatuated with Coach Prime and Colorado. So I think there’s collective value in fading the Buffaloes the rest of the way,” Stone said.
To paraphrase: Stone believes that betting against Colorado on the spread each week over the final seven games could prove profitable.
Consider this: Colorado still has road games against UCLA — which is on the cusp of the AP rankings — No. 13 Washington State and No. 18 Utah, plus a home game against No. 15 Oregon State.
And the Buffs are only 4.5-point favorites against a 1-4 Arizona State squad. What happens Saturday in Tempe could reveal a great deal about whether Sanders’ coaching kick-start continues, or if Colorado regresses to the mean.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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