College Football championship odds, picks, predictions: Michigan, Georgia co-favorites

We are more than halfway through the college football regular season.

The three teams with the shortest odds to win the national championship — the Georgia Bulldogs, Michigan Wolverines and Florida State Seminoles — had been holding their spots as the season progressed.

But heading into Week 8, there’s been a shift in the odds, and there are officially two co-favorites to win the College Football Playoff (CFP).

At +270, Michigan and Georgia share the distinction as the squads with the best odds to win it all. The Dawgs had been on top all season. But after the news broke that their tight end and top target Brock Bowers would have surgery on his ankle injury, the Wolverines moved in on the former faves.

Additionally, another new team is making a strong move up the odds list.

Michael Penix Jr. leads Washington to an unbelievable win over Oregon

Say hello to the Washington Huskies, who just beat the Oregon Ducks in a Pac-12 Conference showdown on Saturday. The Huskies, who were at +4000 entering the season, moved to +950 after beating the Ducks in a battle of top-10 teams.

While the Huskies are the current “it” team, don’t forget the squads who have had title aspirations all season.

Can Georgia three-peat as national champions? The Bulldogs were +220 at the start of the season and now sit at +270. Will Michigan finally get over the hump? The Wolverines were fourth in odds at the start of the season but are now tied with the Bulldogs. Or will a surprise team make the College Football Playoff? Florida State started the season tied with Texas for the ninth-shortest odds at +2500, but is currently third at +850.

On the other end, the USC Trojans saw their odds fall from +2200 to +8000 after losing to Notre Dame.

Let’s take a look at the current odds to win the national championship and get some insight from Geoff Schwartz on which teams are worth a sprinkle.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS *

Michigan: +270 (bet $10 to win $37 total)
Georgia: +270 (bet $10 to win $37 total)
Florida State: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Ohio State: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Washington: +950 (bet $10 to win $105 total)
Penn State: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)
Oklahoma: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Alabama: +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
Texas: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
Oregon: +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)
North Carolina: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
USC: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
LSU: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Oregon State: +13000 (bet $10 to win $1,310 total)
Utah: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)
Tennessee: +20000 (bet $10 to win $2,010 total)
Notre Dame: +20000 (bet $10 to win $2,010 total)

* odds as of 10/16/2023

Editor’s Note: Expert’s picks made July 2023

Insight via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

College football has over 130 teams, with 69 of those teams in the Power 5 conferences. With the wide array of options for winning a college football title, it should be difficult to pick winners each season. Quite the opposite is true.

Thanks to Bud Elliott of 247Sports, we know only 16 teams have a chance to win the title this season. Bud developed the Blue-Chip ratio, a formula that looks at the number of blue-chip prospects on each team. “Put simply, to win the national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits (AKA “Blue Chips”) than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes.”

Since 2011, every national champion has over 50% blue chips on the roster, with most exceeding 60%.

With that in mind, I’ll give you two teams who can win the title.

Georgia +215 (at time of pick)

There has not been a team that has won three straight college football championships since the players could fold their leather helmets into their back pockets after a game.

After two championships, the only thing holding back Georgia from winning a third straight would be apathy, which I doubt happens with new players all over the field, and a slight talent drain. Georgia’s defense was historically good in 2021 and slightly worse in 2022, and now its lost most of those players to the NFL.

Are the new crop of Georgia defenders as good? I’d guess they are, and we will see the same Georgia defense.

On offense, UGA must replace Todd Monkin at offensive coordinator and Stetson Bennett at quarterback. On paper, new QB Carson Beck is more talented than Bennett, which could give it an upgrade at the position after two straight titles. Georgia’s schedule is a cakewalk, and its toughest game will likely be the SEC Championship Game.

If the Bulldogs get there undefeated, they are in the playoff regardless of the result of that contest. As we saw in 2021, an SEC title game loss doesn’t mean much for the title run.

Georgia is the best team in the country, so why not?

Michigan +800 (at time of pick)

I could easily pick Alabama here and would feel awesome with that selection. However, I will take the Wolverines and pray they figure out how to win a game once the new year begins. Michigan’s Blue-Chip ratio is well below that of Georgia, Clemson or even Alabama, but it has a formula that wins games. It beats people up at the line of scrimmage and mostly does not make mistakes.

JJ McCarthy is talented at quarterback, Blake Corum returns at running back, and the offensive line is loaded with talent.

While the veteran defense still needs to find that consistent pass rush it saw with Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, the talent will be excellent again. I’m fine with sprinkling a few bucks on a team that made the playoff two years in a row.

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