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Alaina Getzenberg, ESPN
BUFFALO, N.Y. — In the locker room after the Buffalo Bills‘ escaped Sunday night with a 14-9 win over the New York Giants, quarterback Josh Allen stepped up for his usual breakdown.
“Hey, defense … We gotta be better for y’all,” Allen said in a video posted by the team after the game. “We’re gonna get this s— right. Thank y’all.”
While the defense resets after losing three starters to significant injuries in a two-game span, the offense has stood out for the wrong reasons.
Scoring hasn’t been a problem overall — the Bills (4-2) are averaging the third-most points per drive (2.6). Allen leads the league in completion percentage (71.7%), and wide receiver Stefon Diggs has gotten off to a fast start with 100-plus yards in five or six games.
Despite that, the Bills offense has been up and down. After a mistake-filled 16-point game against the New York Jets in Week 1, the Bills had three straight games with 37 or more points. But in the last two games the unit struggled, scoring 20 points in the loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars and just 14 in the recent win.
“We’ve done some things well offensively this year. Of late, we’ve been certainly too inconsistent,” coach Sean McDermott said. “And that’s what we have to look at here.”
In the last two games, the Bills have scored just seven points combined in the first three quarters of each game — that’s the lowest by any team that played two games in Weeks 5 and 6.
There’s not just one fix. But the Bills invested this offseason in several skill-position players with different skill sets to help take pressure off Allen, including TE Dalton Kincaid (first-round pick) and WRs Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty. Those players haven’t made much of an impact yet, leaving the offense dependent on its stars.
“That’s really some of the deep dive we’re digging through now is, ‘Hey, where’s the second target? Where’s the third targeted player,'” McDermott said Monday. “‘Who is it and how can we get them more touches or how can we get them open more?'”
Diggs has been the focal point, leading the league in largest team target percentage (33.5%). No. 2 wide receiver Gabe Davis has also put together a solid start with 21 receptions on 30 targets for 341 yards and four touchdowns.
But Allen’s numbers have gone down drastically when targeting anyone other than Diggs and Davis. His quarterback rating drops from 92 to 57 and his air yards per attempt sinks from 12.1 to 4.8.
“We rotate guys and some weeks it’s one guy and some weeks it’s another guy,” offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey said. “… You want to keep them all involved … so, I think there’s definitely a fine line to walk there to make sure we’re utilizing as much of our personnel as humanly possible, but at the same time making sure we’ve got guys out there that can get in a rhythm and the flow of the game.”
The Bills planned on Kincaid being an important part of the offense after trading up for him. While he has seen the field a good amount (59.8% of offensive snaps in games he’s played) Kincaid has 17 catches and no touchdowns through five games. He missed the Giants game because he’s in concussion protocol.
Kincaid has the fourth-most receiving yards (118) behind Diggs, Davis and running back James Cook (140).
But the Bills haven’t yet been able to connect with Kincaid for big gains. He averages just 6.9 yards per reception (third-lowest on the team) despite being targeted fourth-most. That extends to all the Bills’ tight ends. The team has used 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs) 33% of the time, the second-highest rate in the NFL after the Atlanta Falcons (41%). That is a significant increase from an NFL-low 6% from 2020 to 2022 ,but the team’s tight ends are still averaging 7 yards per reception (fourth-lowest) and 3.5 air yards per target (sixth-lowest).
“We’ve got to find a more consistent approach or more consistent level of rhythm, and I think including the tight ends in that is important,” McDermott said after Week 5 when asked about the tight ends.
Without Kincaid against the Giants, the Bills ran 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs) a season-high 46 plays, but it didn’t work consistently until late in the game when players such as Cook and second-year wide receiver Khalil Shakir got more involved.
“When you have a receiver as talented as [Diggs] and he’s your first read in a lot of concepts and he’s open, you can’t really pass him up,” Allen said after Sunday’s game. “We do have to utilize other guys, though, and I do think that we’re a better team when we are able to spread the ball around and get everybody involved.”
The inconsistency of the passing game has shown itself on third down over the last two games. In situations of third-and-7 or longer over the past two weeks, the Bills have gained 7 total yards in 10 plays with one completion on nine attempts.
Getting free-agent additions Sherfield (5 catches for 39 yards) and Harty (12 for 103), along with Shakir, further integrated and being more productive in 11 personnel could be significant on third downs.
There’s awareness in the building that the team has work to do, but continuing to win as the team figures it out — no matter how close — certainly helps.
“We understand that there’s gonna be good plays and bad plays,” left tackle Dion Dawkins said. ” … But a win is a win.”
