Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos: Prediction, odds, picks

Having taken four in a row, the Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) are big favorites (-10.5) when they play the Denver Broncos (1-4) in an AFC West tilt.

The Broncos were defeated in their Week 5 game against the New York Jets 31-21, while the Chiefs slid past the Minnesota Vikings 27-20.

Which team will reign supreme on Thursday Night?

Here’s everything you need to know about for the matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Geoff Schwartz. 

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Kansas City (-10.5) 
• Pick OU: Over (51) 
• Prediction: Kansas City 40 – Denver 10

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz

The Broncos are close to a franchise meltdown after another loss on Sunday to the Jets. 

Denver is 1-4 and head to Kansas City on a short week to play a Chiefs team that has owned it. The Broncos have won a Super Bowl more recently than they’ve beaten the Chiefs. Their offense has shown the ability to score points at times, but it is streaky more than consistent: 21 points in the first 20 minutes against the Commanders and then not another touchdown until a Hail Mary in the final seconds; seven first-half points against the Bears before 24 second-half points. 

The point is the Broncos offense is not reliable at all. 

Denver is playing a Chiefs defense that has carried the team. K.C.’s defense has not allowed more than 20 points in any game this season. It also loves to bring pressure and rattle quarterbacks, using its much improved secondary to play in man coverage. Pressuring Russell Wilson will force him into errors and the Broncos will not score points.   

PICK: Broncos Under 18.5 total points scored

How to Watch Kansas City vs. Denver

• Game Date: Thursday, October 12, 2023
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Location: Kansas City, Missouri
• TV: Watch on Amazon Prime Video

Chiefs vs. Broncos Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Kansas City has tallied five wins against Denver.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Kansas City has compiled 144 points against Denver, while giving up only 84 points.

Kansas City Betting Info

• Kansas City is 3-2-0 against the spread this year.
• The Chiefs have been favored by 10.5 points or more once this season, and covered the spread.
• Kansas City games this year have hit the over on two of five set point totals (40%).
• When playing as moneyline favorites, the Chiefs are 4-1, picking up a win 80% of the time.
• Kansas City has played as a moneyline favorite of -520 or shorter in just one game this season, which it won.
• Looking at this matchup’s moneyline, the Chiefs’ implied win probability is 83.9%.

Chiefs Stats

Kansas City’s Key Players

Offense

• Patrick Mahomes II ranks seventh in the NFL with 1,287 passing yards through five games this year, averaging 257.4 per game with a 66.8% completion percentage and 10 touchdowns (sixth in the NFL) against four interceptions.
• In addition to his passing statistics, Mahomes also has 154 rushing yards (second on the Chiefs), but no touchdowns.
• Isiah Pacheco has totaled 325 rushing yards with three touchdowns (65.0 yards per game over five games). His 4.6 yards per attempt rank 15th in the league.
• He has caught 11 passes (on 13 targets) for 99 receiving yards with zero touchdowns. He’s averaging 19.8 receiving yards and 2.2 catches per game.
• In four games played, Travis Kelce is averaging 55.5 yards and 6.8 receptions per game to total 222 receiving yards and 27 catches. He’s been targeted 37 times, and has three receiving touchdowns (fifth in the NFL).
• Rashee Rice has 17 receptions for 173 yards and two touchdowns. He’s been targeted 24 times in the air attack, and averages 3.4 receptions and 34.6 yards through five games played.

Defense

• On the defensive side, Trent McDuffie has 28 tackles in 2023.
• L’Jarius Sneed has 3.0 TFL and 26 tackles.
• Michael Danna has put up 18 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and 3.5 sacks this year.
• This season, Drue Tranquill has 31 tackles and 0.5 sacks. He leads the Chiefs in tackles.

Denver Betting Info

• Denver has yet to win a game against the spread this season (0-4-1).
• Denver games have gone over the total four times this season.
• The Broncos lost the only game they’ve played as the underdog this season.
• Denver has not been a bigger underdog this season than the +390 moneyline set for this game.
• The Broncos have a 20.4% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Broncos Stats

Denver’s Key Players

Offense

• In five games played this year, Russell Wilson has amassed 1,210 passing yards, with 11 touchdowns (second in the NFL) against two interceptions and completing 66.9% of his passes.
• Wilson has also rushed for 119 yards (third on the Broncos).
• Jaleel McLaughlin has 160 rushing yards (leading the Broncos) and one rushing touchdown, while averaging 32.0 yards per game and 7.3 per carry.
• McLaughlin has also picked up 46 receiving yards (9.2 per game) on seven catches (1.4 per game). He’s been targeted eight times and has caught two touchdown passes.
• This season, Courtland Sutton has caught 21 passes for 229 receiving yards with three touchdowns in the passing game (fifth in the NFL). He has been targeted 31 total times and is averaging 4.2 receptions per game in five games played.
• Marvin Mims has been targeted 12 times, resulting in 10 catches for 246 yards .

Defense

• Nik Bonitto has 5.5 sacks (first on the Broncos and sixth in the NFL) to go with 8.0 TFL and 15 tackles through five games in 2023.
• Jonathon Cooper’s stats include 26 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and three sacks.
• Alex Singleton has recorded 1.0 TFL and 43 tackles in the 2023 season.
• Zach Allen has 23 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and 1.5 sacks.

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