Week 5 brought a new favorite into the MVP betting market. Patrick Mahomes surpassed Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa to become the new MVP front-runner as the three continue to trade the favorite role. The rest of the MVP awards markets did not see movement at the top, but several key injuries and big performances helped reshape both Rookie of the Year markets, as well as Offensive Player of the Year.
MVP
This is the third straight week the MVP favorite has changed. Josh Allen took the mantle from Tua Tagovailoa after the Bills Week 4 win over the Dolphins. But after the Bills loss last week, preseason favorite Patrick Mahomes is back on top of the MVP market, followed by Tagovailoa, Allen and Brock Purdy, who moved from 13-1 to +550 last week. Purdy entered the season at 45-1.
Mahomes, Tagovailoa and Allen are all double-digit favorites this week. Mahomes in particular has a great showcase opportunity, playing in prime-time against the Broncos, which have allowed the most points and passing touchdowns this season.
Offensive Player of the Year
Christian McCaffrey remains the favorite in this market as he has scored in every game. The big shakeup happened after Justin Jefferson’s hamstring injury. Jefferson was +450 entering last week, tied with Tyreek Hill for the second favorite. With Jefferson’s odds cratering this week, both McCaffrey and Hill’s odds shortened. McCaffrey is now +150 with Hill +200. The only other player shorter than 20-1 is Stefon Diggs at 12-1.
McCaffrey has a tough matchup this week against the Browns on the road. The 49ers team total (21.5) is nine points lower than the Dolphins (30.5), so this could be a chance for Hill to close the gap even more.
Defensive Player of the Year
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Favorite: Micah Parsons (+180)
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Last week’s favorite: Parsons (+150)
Micah Parsons has been favored in this market all season, but his odds lengthened slightly from +150 to +180. Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt have been right behind him all season and that remains the case. Watt suffered an injured finger in Week 5, but he is expected to play through it following the Steelers’ bye this week. Aidan Hutchinson has moved from 40-1 to 10-1 in the last two weeks to rate fourth in the odds market.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
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Favorite: C.J. Stroud (-110)
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Last week’s favorite: Stroud (+160)
While C.J. Stroud remains the favorite, this market featured significant movement in Week 5. Last week, there were five players at +500 or shorter. Two of those players suffered injuries expected to keep them out several weeks in Anthony Richardson and De’Von Achane.
Puka Nacua remained productive last week with 71 yards and a touchdown, but he was upstaged by the return of teammate Cooper Kupp, who had 118 yards in his first game off injured reserve. Nacua’s odds shortened from +450 to +300 to surpass Bijan Robinson (+400) as the second favorite.
Stroud has opened up a gap in this market after setting the record for most passes without an interception to begin a player’s career and beating Robinson’s Falcons last week. Stroud has a difficult matchup this week against the Saints defense, while Robinson (Commanders) and Nacua (Cardinals) face easier opponents.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
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Favorite: Jalen Carter (-175)
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Last week’s favorite: Carter (+100)
Jalen Carter entered last week at even money despite just 1.5 sacks in four games. However, last week, Carter broke out with two sacks and became an odds-on favorite in this market. Carter has another chance to improve his statistics this week against Zach Wilson and the Jets on Sunday.
Devon Witherspoon remains the second favorite after his big move prior to last week. No. 3 overall pick Will Anderson is the third favorite at 12-1. While Anderson has only one sack, he leads all rookies in quarterback pressures and ranks third in the entire NFL in pass rush win rate.
Coach of the Year
The Lions and Dolphins were the two biggest favorites on the board last week, and both teams won easily, leaving Mike McDaniel and Dan Campbell as the two co-favorites for a second straight week. The Dolphins are nearly two-touchdown favorites this week against the Panthers, while the Lions have a tougher game on the road against the Buccaneers. That game could have major implications in this market as a Buccaneers win would likely slash the odds for Todd Bowles (+1800). Kyle Shanahan remains the third favorite, but his odds were slashed from +800 to +400.
ESPN Analytics projects the 49ers for 13.6 wins, 1.3 more wins than the Chiefs and Dolphins for most in the NFL.
Odds courtesy Caesars Sportsbook.
