Week 7 was a significant one for awards markets. The favorites to win MVP, Offensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year all lost. Some of those markets moved significantly off those results, while others barely moved at all.
Here are how the markets have shifted heading into Week 8.
MVP
Five of the top seven favorites in this market lost last week, helping Patrick Mahomes move from +450 to +240. He is now the biggest favorite in this market in any week all season. Mahomes also had his best statistical game by far, throwing for 424 yards and four touchdowns. ESPN Analytics gives the Chiefs a 55% chance at getting the No. 1 seed, which has been critical to recent winners.
Jalen Hurts moved from +850 to +450 after the Eagles beat the Dolphins. The other big move was by Lamar Jackson, whose odds shortened from 20-1 to 7-1. Tagovailoa (+430) still leads the NFL in passing yards, but the gap has closed significantly.
Offensive Player of the Year
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Favorite: Tyreek Hill (+125)
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Last week’s favorite: Favorite: Hill (+125)
This has been a two-man race since Justin Jefferson’s injury as Tyreek Hill (+125) has a small lead on Christian McCaffrey. Hill is on pace to be the first 2,000-yard receiver in NFL history, while McCaffrey is one game shy of the longest touchdown streak in NFL history including playoffs. Both remain worthy favorites.
The big riser recently has been A.J. Brown who moved from 40-1 to 10-1 following his fifth straight 125-yard receiving game. He trails Hill by 93 receiving yards and four touchdowns.
Defensive Player of the Year
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Favorite: Micah Parsons (+180)
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Last week’s favorite: Parsons (+130)
This remains a three-man race at the top between Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt. Parsons remains the favorite despite trailing both Watt and Garrett in sacks and forced fumbles. Parsons leads the NFL in pass rush win rate and has more pressures than Watt and Garrett.
Both the Browns and Cowboys rank in the top five in yards per game allowed, while the Steelers are 30th.
Coach of the Year
Outside of MVP, this may have been the most interesting market in the NFL last week. Both favorites – Dan Campbell and Mike McDaniel – lost by double digits, yet both coaches’ odds barely shifted. Kyle Shanahan, who was tied for the third favorite, remained 10-1 despite losing as a big favorite in Minnesota.
ESPN Analytics projects the Dolphins for 11.7 wins and the Lions for 10.8, but both teams won nine games last season, so a 2-3 win improvement might not be enough for either coach. Eighteen of the past 20 Coaches of the Year had at least a four-win improvement, and the two exceptions both overcame significant injuries.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are projected for 12 wins, one game less than last season. This market looks ripe for a big move in future weeks. DeMeco Ryans (+800), Robert Saleh (+1200) and Arthur Smith (+2500) are among the chasers who are favored to win this week.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
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Favorite: C.J. Stroud (-200)
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Last week’s favorite: Stroud (-150)
Despite a bye last week, C.J. Stroud’s lead in the Offensive Rookie of the Year market grew. Bijan Robinson dropped from 6-1 to 14-1 after he had just one touch on offense.
Puka Nacua’s odds shortened from +400 to +325 after becoming the second player ever with 700 receiving yards in his first seven games. Jordan Addison moved from 14-1 to 12-1 after posting two touchdowns on Monday, giving him six on the season, one shy of the most in the entire NFL.
One player to watch could be Josh Downs, who is 100-1 despite ranking third among rookie in receiving yards and had 125 yards last week.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
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Favorite: Jalen Carter (-150)
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Last week’s favorite: Carter (-190)
Jalen Carter returned from a one-week absence, playing a season-low 18 snaps. He made a highlight reel play in the first quarter where he blew up Dolphins OL Isaiah Wynn, but he barely showed up on the statsheet, recording one tackle and no sacks. Carter looks the part of a Defensive Rookie of the Year, but until his stats match his tape, this race could be more wide open than the odds indicate.
Devon Witherspoon remains the second favorite, moving from +250 to +225. The Seahawks cornerback nearly had a big statistical day with a sack and an interception, but both were overturned due to penalties.
Odds courtesy Caesars Sportsbook.
