Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins: Prediction, odds, picks

The Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) are favored by 2.5 points versus the Miami Dolphins (5-1) on October 22, starting at 8:20 PM ET, airing on NBC. 

The Eagles were defeated 20-14 in their last game by the New York Jets, while the Dolphins took down the Carolina Panthers 42-21 in their Week 6 matchup. 

Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between the Dolphins and Eagles — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from Sam Panayotovich. 

Eagles vs. Dolphins Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Miami (+2.5) 
• Pick OU: Over (52) 
• Prediction: Miami 28 – Philadelphia 27

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sam Panayotovich

The Eagles’ sloppy play finally caught up to them.

After surviving and winning one-score games against teams like the Patriots, Vikings and Commanders, the Eagles turned the ball over four times against a very stingy Jets defense and lost a 20-14 rock fight.

I don’t think it’s as easy as flipping on a switch, either.

Quarterback Jalen Hurts is a major reason for Philly’s red-zone struggles. He has the same amount of touchdowns (7) as interceptions (7) and the Eagles are only scoring touchdowns on 45% of their red-zone opportunities. For context, they scored six at a 68% clip in 2022.  

Miami is a much better football team right now with an offense that’s as creative and diverse as… well… the Eagles were last year.

PICK: Dolphins (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)

Julio Jones after signing with Eagles: ‘I’m here to dominate’

How to Watch Philadelphia vs. Miami

• Game Date: Sunday, October 22, 2023
• Time: 8:20 PM ET
• Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
• Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• TV: Watch on NBC

Eagles vs. Dolphins Recent Matchups

• In their past five head-to-head meetings, Philadelphia has beaten Miami three times.
• Miami has been outscored by 26 points in its last five tilts against Philadelphia.

Philadelphia Betting Info

• Philadelphia has three wins in six games versus the spread this season.
• When playing as at least 2.5-point favorites this season, the Eagles have an ATS record of 3-2-1.
• Philadelphia contests this year have gone over the point total 50% of the time (three times in six games with a set point total).
• When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Eagles are 5-1 (winning 83.3% of the time).
• Philadelphia has a record of 5-1 when it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -135 or shorter (83.3%).
• Looking at this matchup’s moneyline, the Eagles’ implied win probability is 57.4%.

Eagles Stats

Philadelphia’s Key Players

Offense

• Jalen Hurts has 1,542 passing yards (eighth in the NFL), seven touchdowns and seven interceptions this year. He has completed 66.2% of his passes, averaging 257 yards per game and 7.2 per attempt.
• He has tacked on 253 rushing yards (42.2 per game) and five touchdowns on the ground.
• A.J. Brown has caught 42 passes (fifth in the NFL) on 60 targets for 672 total yards (second in the NFL) and two touchdowns. He is averaging seven catches and 112 yards per game through six games.
• D’Andre Swift has 452 rushing yards (fifth in the NFL) with two touchdowns (75.3 yards per game across six games).
• Swift has recorded 23 catches, 115 yards and one TD through the air.
• DeVonta Smith has 334 receiving yards and two touchdowns with 28 catches on 45 targets. He is averaging 4.7 receptions and 55.7 yards per game.

Defense

• On the defensive side, Nicholas Morrow has three sacks (fourth on the Eagles) to go with seven TFL and 27 tackles in 2023.
• Josh Sweat has 17 tackles, three TFL, and 3.5 sacks this season.
• Reed Blankenship has recorded 38 tackles, two TFL, and one interception this year. He leads the Eagles in tackles.
• This season, Haason Reddick has 10 tackles, five TFL, and 5.5 sacks.

Miami Betting Info

• Miami has gone 5-1-0 against the spread this year.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread once this season when underdogs by 2.5 points or more (in two chances).
• Miami games have gone over the total four times this year.
• The Dolphins have split the two games they’ve played as underdogs this season.
• Miami has entered two games this season as the underdog by +114 or more and is 1-1 in those contests.
• The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 46.7% chance of a victory for the Dolphins.

Dolphins Stats

Miami’s Key Players

Offense

• This year through six games, Raheem Mostert has churned out 429 rushing yards (second on the Dolphins and seventh in the NFL) and scored nine rushing touchdowns. He averages 71.5 yards per game and 5.7 per attempt (third in the NFL).
• Mostert’s offensive contributions include 18 receptions (three per game) on 20 targets for 145 yards (24.2 per game) and two receiving touchdowns.
• Tua Tagovailoa has 1,876 passing yards (which ranks first in the NFL), 14 touchdowns (first in the NFL) and five interceptions. His completion percentage is 71.1% and he averages 312.7 yards per game and 9.5 per attempt.
• Through six games played this season, Tyreek Hill has 42 catches (seven receptions per game on 9.8 targets per game) for 814 yards (first in the NFL) and six receiving touchdowns (first in the NFL).
• Jaylen Waddle has 24 catches for 296 yards and two receiving touchdowns. He averages 4.8 yards per game through five games and has been targeted 35 times.

Defense

• In 2023, Jevon Holland has recorded 46 tackles and two TFL over six games.
• Andrew Van Ginkel has four sacks in addition to his six TFL and 25 tackles over six games.
• During the 2023 campaign, David Long has 46 tackles, four TFL, and one sack through six games.
• Bradley Chubb has totaled two sacks (fifth on the Dolphins) as well as five TFL and 27 tackles.

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