San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys: Prediction, odds, picks

The San Francisco 49ers (4-0) will face the Dallas Cowboys (3-1) in a Sunday night thriller. Having taken four straight, the 49ers are 3.5-point favorites over their rivals.

Both of these squads were victorious in Week 4. The Cowboys destroyed the New England Patriots 38-3 in their matchup, while the 49ers handily defeated the Arizona Cardinals 35-16. 

Who will win in this Week 5 battle of the NFC’s two best teams? 

Here’s everything you need to know about for the matchup between the Cowboys and 49ers — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Sam Panayotovich. 

RELATED: Cowboys vs. 49ers preview, predictions: What should you expect in huge rivalry game

49ers vs. Cowboys Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Dallas (+3.5) 
• Pick OU: Under (45) 
• Prediction: San Francisco 23 – Dallas 20

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sam Panayotovich

Finally, the NFC’s two highest power-rated teams lock horns.

Legendary Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White has the Niners at 108.5 in his rating system, with the Cowboys 2.5 points back at 106. This means White makes San Francisco a 2.5-point favorite on a neutral. Add in the 1.8 points or so for standard home-field advantage, and we’re at 4.3 points.

So the point spread is dead on.

I’m much more interested in the total. These are two of the best defenses in football because they both get to the quarterback and limit big plays. San Francisco has a superstar at every level, and Dallas pursuants Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence will challenge youngster Brock Purdy.

Defense, defense, defense.

PICK: Under 45 points scored by both teams combined

Cowboys battle 49ers in Week 5: Dallas eliminated by SF in playoffs last 2 years

The Cowboys enter the matchup as 3.5 point underdogs.

How to Watch San Francisco vs. Dallas

• Game Date: Sunday, October 8, 2023
• Time: 8:20 PM ET
• Venue: Levi’s Stadium
• Location: Santa Clara, California
• TV: Watch on NBC

49ers vs. Cowboys Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Dallas has three wins against San Francisco.
• San Francisco has been outscored by 22 points in its last five tilts versus Dallas.

San Francisco Betting Info

• Against the spread, San Francisco is 3-1-0 this year.
• The 49ers have been favored by 3.5 points or more three times this season, and covered the spread in two of those matchups.
• San Francisco games this year have hit the over on two of four set point totals (50%).
• The 49ers have not yet lost a game they were the moneyline favorite, going 4-0 in those matchups this season.
• San Francisco has played in three games as a moneyline favorite with odds of -185 or shorter and won them all.
• The 49ers have a 64.9% chance to win this contest, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

49ers Stats

San Francisco’s Key Players

Offense

• Christian McCaffrey’s rushing output this season includes 459 yards (first in the NFL) and six TDs. He is averaging 114.8 yards per game and 5.7 per attempt (sixth in the NFL).
• McCaffrey has been targeted 21 times in the receiving game and has 18 catches (4.5 per game) for 141 yards (35.3 per game) and one TD.
• Brock Purdy has passed for 1,019 yards (eighth in the NFL), five touchdowns and zero interceptions this year. He averages 254.8 yards per game and 9.1 per attempt, while completing 72.3%.
• He’s rushed for 24 yards (fourth on the 49ers) and added two touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 6 rushing yards per game.
• In the passing attack, Brandon Aiyuk, has racked up 320 receiving yards and two touchdowns after grabbing 17 balls on 20 targets. Per game, he’s averaging 106.7 yards and 5.7 receptions in three games.
• Deebo Samuel has racked up 247 receiving yards and one touchdown with 17 catches on 28 targets. He’s averaging 4.3 receptions and 61.8 yards per game.

Defense

• On defense, Fred Warner has 33 tackles, two TFL, and one sack in 2023.
• Deommodore Lenoir has 30 tackles and one interception this season.
• Dre Greenlaw has put up 32 tackles and one TFL this year.
• This season, Javon Hargrave has 11 tackles, three TFL, and three sacks.

Dallas Betting Info

• Dallas has covered the spread three times this year (3-1-0).
• Games involving Dallas have hit the over twice this year.
• The Cowboys have not played a game this season while listed as the underdog.
• Dallas has not entered a game this season as a bigger underdog on the moneyline than the +154 odds on them winning this game.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Cowboys have a 39.4% chance to win.

Cowboys Stats

Dallas’ Key Players

Offense

• In four games played this year, Dak Prescott has totaled 908 passing yards, while throwing four touchdowns against one interception and completing 71.3% of his attempts.
• On the ground, Prescott has added 43 rushing yards (fourth on the Cowboys).
• Tony Pollard averages 77.8 rushing yards per game through four games (311 total yards to rank fifth in the NFL), while scoring two rushing touchdowns.
• Pollard has also picked up 61 receiving yards (15.3 per game) on 15 catches (3.8 per game). He’s been targeted 17 times and is still looking for his first receiving touchdown.
• CeeDee Lamb has totaled 309 receiving yards and one touchdown on 23 receptions, while being targeted 30 times this season.
• Jake Ferguson has 147 receiving yards and one touchdown from 17 receptions after getting 25 targets.

Defense

• In 2023, Micah Parsons has amassed four sacks to go with six TFL and 14 tackles over four games. He ranks sixth in the NFL in sacks.
• Daron Bland has 14 tackles, one TFL, and three interceptions. He is fifth on the Cowboys in tackles.
• Osa Odighizuwa has three sacks (second on the Cowboys) in addition to his four TFL and 11 tackles.
• Demarcus Lawrence has totaled two sacks (third on the Cowboys) to go with four TFL and nine tackles through four games.

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