After two weeks of public bettors riding moneyline parlays to big wins, the NFL Week 6 odds market brought some regression to the mean.
The unbeaten San Francisco 49ers stunningly lost at Cleveland. The unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles suffered a similarly surprising loss at the New York Jets.
As such, the public got plowed under. And it was a pretty good weekend for bookmakers in the college football Week 7 odds market, as well.
Let’s recap the weekend that was in football betting.
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Cleveland Rocks
Heading into Week 6, San Francisco was riding a 15-game regular-season win streak. The Niners were killing it for bettors, too, going 12-3 against the spread (ATS) in that stretch, including 5-0 this season. San Fran was coming off a 42-10 beatdown of the Dallas Cowboys.
And as if all that wasn’t enough to assume the Niners would take care of Cleveland: The Browns had relative unknown PJ Walker starting at quarterback, in place of the injured Deshaun Watson (rotator cuff).
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San Francisco closed as a 9.5-point favorite Sunday and got out to a 10-0 second-quarter lead. But the 49ers had only one score the rest of the way, losing 19-17 when a final-seconds field-goal attempt went just wide right.
“The 49ers losing outright was a big win for the house,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said, noting boatloads of moneyline parlays went up in smoke, as did a lot of standard spread bets. “There was a lot of money on 49ers minus the points, too.”
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews summed up the Browns-Niners outcome in one word.
“Monstrous,” he said, before adding: “We opened 49ers -5 and went as high as -10. The moneyline opened -290 (bet $10 to win $13.45 total) and went as high as -550 (bet $10 to win $11.82 total). And then the ‘dog wins outright. So yeah, that figures to be good.”
For some sportsbooks, San Fran’s loss in the 1 p.m. ET window was all that was needed to make their day. Asked how much moneyline parlay/teaser liability got blown up by the Browns’ upset, BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton responded: “All of it.”
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Eagles Grounded
In the late Sunday window of games, the Eagles were 6.5-point road favorites against the Jets. Philly led 14-9 at halftime but got shut out in the second half. Trailing 14-12 with under two minutes remaining, New York got an 8-yard Breece Hall TD run, followed by a successful two-point conversion.
The Jets then forced the Eagles to turn it over on downs, sealing a 20-14 upset. Whatever moneyline parlays/teasers remained became kindling at that point.
“It was a monster day for the books,” Shelton said, taking the liberty — and correctly so — of assuming pretty much every sportsbook operator did well to the NFL Sunday.
Added Murray: “We got some big underdogs to win outright. That’s all it takes.”
Irish Eyes are Smiling — as are Bookmakers
Before a single college football game kicked off Saturday, BetMGM trading team lead Seamus Magee was looking well ahead to the USC–Notre Dame Saturday night showdown.
“Is it too much to ask the Irish to win a big game? USC winning outright would be an awful result for us,” Magee said.
As it turned out, for once, it wasn’t too much to ask. Notre Dame, a 3-point home favorite, shellacked Southern Cal 48-20. Add to that Coach Prime and Colorado‘s stunning meltdown Friday night against Stanford, and it was a pretty good college weekend for BetMGM, on top of the NFL haul.
“It was the best weekend in recent memory,” BetMGM Nevada’s Shelton said.
The SuperBook’s Murray echoed that sentiment.
“We had a very good Sunday and a very good weekend,” he said.
USC vs. Notre Dame Highlights
Safety Dance
Though no big bets were reported on Patriots–Raiders, we’d be remiss to not bring up that game. New England was a 3-point underdog and trailed 19-17 with the ball late in the fourth quarter.
On third-and-15 from their own 4-yard line, the Pats gave up a Mac Jones sack for a safety, giving Las Vegas a 21-17 lead.
On the ensuing possession, the Raiders kneeled it out to seal the win, eaning New England spread bettors lost on a safety. Or alternately, of course, Las Vegas spread bettors won on a safety.
“That was not good for us. We definitely needed the Patriots. And they should have covered,” Murray said.
Big Sweat of a Big Bet
The NFL Week 6 odds market nearly got one more huge upset Sunday night, from the biggest underdog on the board. The New York Giants, catching 15.5 points against the Buffalo Bills, came up literally one yard shy of a shocking result.
After the Bills missed a field goal with 1:29 remaining, the Giants took over at their own 37, trailing 14-9. Backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor, subbing for the injured Daniel Jones (neck), led New York down to the 1-yard line. But on the G-Men’s final play — set up by a pass-interference call as time expired, leading to an un-timed final down — Darren Waller couldn’t quite haul in Taylor’s pass.
That play, perhaps, could’ve seen a pass-interference call, as well. But so it goes, and the Bills eked out a victory. As did a BetMGM high roller who got a serious sweat.
The customer put $100,000 on Buffalo moneyline -1200. The wager would profit a mere $8,333, for a total payout of $108,333. And the bettor had to sweat every second of the game, plus that un-timed down, to get that 8.3% return on investment.
“I’m not sure how much fun that was for him. But he won,” Shelton said.
And speaking of major wagers, let’s wrap this up with …
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Caesars Sports took a cavalcade of big plays in both the NFL and college. On the pro football front:
– $235,128.21 (yes, 21 cents, too; go figure) Texans moneyline +118. Houston beats New Orleans 20-13. Bettor profits $277,451.29, for a total payout of $512,579.50.
– $150,000 49ers moneyline -550 vs. Browns. We know how that turned out.
– $120,000 Lions -3 (-120) at Buccaneers. Lions win 20-6. Profits $100,000, for a $220,000 total payout.
– $250,000 Chiefs moneyline -650 vs. Broncos. Profits $38,462, for a $288,462 total payout.
– $120,000 Chiefs moneyline -600. Profits $20,000, for a $140,000 total payout.
– $110,000 Chiefs moneyline -550. Profits $20,000, for a $130,000 total payout.
In college football action at Caesars:
– $175,000 Louisville moneyline -320 at Pittsburgh. Cardinals dealt 38-21 upset.
– $100,000 Ohio State moneyline -1000 at Purdue. Buckeyes roll 41-7. Profits $10,000, for a $110,000 total payout.
Houston defeats West Virginia on a game-winning 49-yard Hail Mary as time expires
Topping the field in the painful loss/miraculous win category had to be the wild West Virginia–Houston finish from Thursday night.
Trailing 35-32 and facing fourth-and-10 at midfield, West Virginia got a 50-yard TD pass from Garrett Greene to Hudson Clement. That gave the Mountaineers, who closed as 3-point road favorites, a 39-35 lead with just 12 seconds left.
But West Virginia was assessed an unsportsmanlike celebration penalty and had to kick off from its own 20, with Houston then taking over at its own 43. The Cougars got to the West Virginia 49 on first down. With three seconds remaining, there was time only for a Hail Mary.
Cougars QB Donovan Smith had the prayer answered, as Stephon Johnson caught a tipped ball in the end zone, giving Houston a 41-39 victory. A Caesars Sports bettor had $50,000 on West Virginia -2.5. Ouch.
On the flip side, right before Houston’s miracle final drive, a DraftKings bettor put $1,000 on Cougars in-game moneyline +3500. It was surely the fastest $35,000 that person — or almost any person — ever made.
All in all, quite a weekend in the football betting world. Enjoy the Cowboys-Los Angeles Chargers game on Monday Night Football to wrap it all up.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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