Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears: Prediction, odds, picks

The Chicago Bears (0-4) will be trying to snap a four-game losing streak against the Washington Commanders (2-2). The Commanders are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -6). 

The Bears were defeated 31-28 by the Denver Broncos their last time out, while the Commanders also lost a close one 34-31 to the Philadelphia Eagles in their Week 4 matchup. 

Which team will be victorious on Thursday night?

Here’s everything you need to know about for the matchup between the Commanders and Bears — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Sam Panayotovich. 

Commanders vs. Bears Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Washington (-6) 
• Pick OU: Over (45) 
• Prediction: Washington 32 – Chicago 21

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sam Panayotovich

Some big Bears money entered the market the last two days.

Washington climbed to as high as a 7-point favorite in Las Vegas on Monday, but it’s been nothing but Chicago cash since that point. These two teams played last year on a Thursday night in a forgettable 12-7 rock fight.

Not much has changed.

Sure, the Commanders replaced Carson Wentz with Sam Howell, though that doesn’t exactly strike fear in opposing defensive coordinators. And while Chicago’s defense is horrendous, Washington’s has given up 30 points in three consecutive weeks. Neither team should be this big of a favorite.

Take the points.

PICK: Bears (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)

How to Watch Washington vs. Chicago

• Game Date: Thursday, October 5, 2023
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Venue: FedExField
• Location: Landover, Maryland
• TV: Watch on Amazon Prime Video

Commanders vs. Bears Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Washington has collected four wins against Chicago.
• Chicago has been outpaced by 16 points in its last five tilts versus Washington.

Washington Betting Info

• So far this season Washington has two victories against the spread.
• The Commanders have not covered the spread this season (0-1 ATS) when playing as at least 6-point favorites.
• Washington games this year have eclipsed the over/under two times in four opportunities (50%).
• The Commanders have been moneyline favorites a single other time this season, a game they won.
• Washington has played as a moneyline favorite of -250 or shorter in only one game this season, which it won.
• The implied probability in this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Commanders a 71.4% chance to win.

Commanders Stats

Washington’s Key Players

Offense

• On the ground, Brian Robinson Jr. averages 4.3 yards per attempt (19th in the NFL) and 65.3 yards per game for 261 total rushing yards. He has scored three rushing touchdowns this season.
• Robinson has seven targets, five catches, 55 receiving yards and one TD in the passing game.
• Sam Howell has 961 passing yards (10th in the NFL), four touchdowns and five interceptions this year. He has completed 67.1% of his passes, averaging 240.3 yards per game and 6.9 per attempt.
• He’s also rushed for 82 yards (second on the Commanders) and added one touchdown on the ground, while averaging 20.5 rushing yards per game.
• Terry McLaurin has one touchdown catch this season, and has 21 catches for 212 yards on 26 targets, while averaging 5.3 catches and 53.0 yards per game.
• Curtis Samuel averages 4.3 receptions and 44.5 yards per game, and has 178 total receiving yards and 17 catches. He’s gotten 20 total targets, but has yet to record a touchdown pass.

Defense

• Over on the defensive side, Kamren Curl has 37 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one sack in 2023. His tackle total leads the Commanders and is 10th in the NFL.
• Montez Sweat has 3.0 sacks (first on the Commanders) to go with 4.0 TFL and 12 tackles.
• Cody Barton has put up 36 tackles this year.
• Jamin Davis has 26 tackles, 2.0 TFL, one sack, and one pass defended.

Chicago Betting Info

• Chicago is winless against the spread this season (0-3-1).
• This season, the Bears are winless ATS when entering a game as an underdog of 6 points or more.
• Every game involving Chicago has hit the over so far this year.
• The Bears have been listed as the underdog three times this season and have failed to win any of those games.
• Chicago has played as an underdog of +205 or more once this season and lost that game.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 32.8% chance of a victory for the Bears.

Bears Stats

Chicago’s Key Players

Offense

• Justin Fields has thrown for 861 yards this year, with seven touchdowns (sixth in the NFL) and five interceptions. He is completing 64.2% of his passes while averaging 215.3 yards per game and 7.0 per attempt.
• He’s added 134 yards on the ground (second on the Bears), while scoring one rushing touchdown. He’s averaging 33.5 yards per game and 4.8 per attempt.
• D.J. Moore has 19 catches for 301 yards and two receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 24 times and averages 4.8 receptions per game through four games played.
• So far this season through four games, Khalil Herbert has racked up 196 rushing yards (leading the Bears), but has not scored a rushing touchdown. He averages 49.0 yards per game and 4.8 per attempt (11th in the NFL).
• Herbert’s stat sheet includes 10 receptions (2.5 per game) on 15 targets for 83 yards (20.8 per game) and one receiving touchdown.
• Cole Kmet has been targeted 24 times, resulting in 18 catches for 189 yards .

Defense

• T.J. Edwards’ 2023 output includes 50 tackles and 2.0 TFL through four games. He leads the Bears and is second in the NFL in tackles.
• Tremaine Edmunds has 39 tackles and 3.0 TFL.
• In the 2023 campaign, Jaquan Brisker has 24 tackles in four games.
• Terell Smith’s stat sheet includes 15 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and two passes defended in two games

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