It’s been one of those years for me.
Leading 17-14 in the fourth quarter, Kansas City (-2.5) had its sights set on another touchdown, before Travis Kelce fumbled at the Philadelphia 9-yard line and everything changed.
Forget the Marquez Valdes-Scantling drop — Kelce’s fumble was the difference.
And instead of a 3-2 weekend, I went 2-3.
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As for this weekend, I’ve got two college football bets and two NFL plays. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Michigan Wolverines (-3.5, O/U 46)
The “Under” is very trendy and it makes sense.
Just understand that Ohio State is the best offense Michigan will face and Michigan is the best offense that Ohio State will face. We usually get points when these two get together in late November.
The last four meetings finished 45-23, 42-27, 56-27 and 62-39. Not that what happens in 2019 has any impact on what happens on Saturday, but you get the point. I expect a big game from Marvin Harrison Jr. and also expect Michigan’s running attack to churn butter.
A couple books are at 47, so please get the right number.
PICK: Over 46 points scored by both teams combined
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Michigan: Joel Klatt’s film breakdown
Colorado Buffaloes @ Utah Utes (-21, O/U 48)
Shedeur Sanders is banged up and Utah is on QB4.
That’s where we’re at.
Coach Prime told reporters Wednesday his son was “day-to-day,” but wasn’t doing well. Even if Sanders gets cleared, why play him? He left last week’s game against Washington State with multiple injuries and now Colorado is going to bring him back to face a punishing Utes defense?
After a 3-0 non-conference, the Buffaloes have sputtered to 1-7 in Pac-12 play, mostly because their offensive and defensive lines get destroyed in the trenches. That’s unlikely to change against Utah.
Expect the Utes to take an early lead and sit on it.
PICK: Under 48 points scored by both teams combined
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, O/U 48) @ Los Angeles Chargers
The hooks are starting to disappear.
Most Las Vegas sportsbooks opened Baltimore -3.5, yet with most of the spread and moneyline bets on Baltimore, the line is moving the other way.
Vegas bookmaker John Murray told FOX Sports the Ravens are shaping up to be one of the most public sides of the season. Money won’t stop pouring in either. People love to bet that cheap road favorite on Sunday Night Football.
As maddening as the Chargers are, they’re always dangerous in the underdog role because any result is possible in their games. It wouldn’t stun me if they were up four points with two minutes to go.
I’ll side with the house on this one.
PICK: Chargers (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
Eagles beat Chiefs — did the better team win on Monday night?
Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3, O/U 48.5)
Bookmakers clearly respect Buffalo in this spot.
That’s why a 9-1 Eagles team is only laying a field goal at home to a disappointing Bills team with five losses. The Bills still get plenty of respect from Vegas wise guys and their “A” game is good enough to beat anybody.
Philly keeps winning close games, and you certainly give the reigning NFC champs credit for finding ways to emerge with victories. But let’s not forget that the Eagles were out-gained by 100 yards on Monday night.
If the Bills protect the football, they’ll win outright.
PICK: Bills (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
2023 Record: (27-29-1, -5.1)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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