After 11 weeks of the 2023 college football season, the Heisman Trophy race is as wide-open as it gets with four legit contenders.
Oregon’s Bo Nix (-110), Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. (+350), LSU’s Jayden Daniels (+350) and Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. (+600) all have single-digit odds at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.
Last year’s winner, Caleb Williams, is nowhere to be found.
“Williams winning would’ve actually been our best result because we were so low on him out of the chute,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk management Ed Salmons told FOX Sports.
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“We posted Williams at 3-1 when we opened the Heisman pool, and he just kept drifting out after USC started playing good teams. He was as high as 100-1 two weeks ago and now he’s off the board.
“We have small liabilities on the top four, but nothing bad.”
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Nix’s ascension up the Heisman betting board coincides with Vegas oddsmakers’ rising respect for Oregon. He’s the most important catalyst for an offense that averages 46 points per game, and multiple wise guys have the Ducks as their second-highest power-rated team in the country.
“For the most part, people are penciling in Oregon to beat Washington in a likely Pac-12 title rematch,” Salmons said. “Not that Washington can’t lose this week as a small dog at Oregon State, but that’s the betting narrative.
“Nix deserves to be favored at this point.”
That said, if Washington wins out and Penix Jr. balls out in the fourth quarter against Oregon State this Saturday and Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship, it’ll be tough arguing against the best player on an undefeated team.
Maybe.
Yours truly has Penix Jr. at +750 and I’m typing it into existence.
Heisman Trophy odds: is LSU’s Jayden Daniels the best player in the country?
Elsewhere, Jayden Daniels’ numbers are just mind-boggling. He’s thrown for over 3,100 yards and 30 touchdowns and racked up another 900 yards and eight scores on the ground. There’s also a world where he’s responsible for seven more touchdowns this weekend against Georgia State.
But three losses in LSU’s three biggest games will hurt him.
“The way they shape the Heisman now is that team success is part of the equation,” Salmons explained. “It didn’t used to be that way. It used to just be the best player. When Paul Hornung won it, Notre Dame won two games that season. In today’s environment, that’s an impossibility.”
Salmons believes Daniels benefits from LSU’s shoddy defense, too.
“Daniels is putting up ridiculously monstrous numbers, but the team isn’t that good and has an awful defense,” he opined. “His stats are pumped up because LSU’s defense gives up 30 points per game. He’s playing in nothing but track meets, which obviously pads all his numbers.”
Then there’s the star receiver.
Only three wideouts – Tim Brown, Desmond Howard and DeVonta Smith – have hoisted the Heisman in New York City.
Harrison (59 catches, 1,063 yards, 12 TDs) won’t even come close to sniffing Smith’s 2020 stats at Alabama (117 catches, 1,856 yards, 24 TDs), but could a three-touchdown performance against Michigan open some eyes?
“Ohio State has to upset Michigan and Harrison needs at least 100 yards and two or three touchdowns,” Salmons estimated. “If he makes an amazing grab that a normal receiver couldn’t fathom, that’ll help, too.”
Like a one-handed grab in double coverage to win the game?
“Exactly.”
There’s no way I’m going to sit here and wax poetic about why you should bet Bo Nix to win the Heisman at -110. That ain’t happening.
If you’re looking for a bet right now, I still don’t think Penix Jr. is a bad pop and you can find him as high as +380 in the market. Even if the Huskies lose a shootout at Oregon State this weekend, there’s a road map. You’ll just need Penix Jr. to outplay Nix in their rematch, which is certainly possible.
It would only be fitting in the last year of the Pac-12 as we know it that the final league game could dictate college football’s greatest individual prize.
Ironic, isn’t it?
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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