Hello, November (aka Daniel Dopp’s birthday month)! It’s going to be a jam-packed couple of weeks with plenty of celebrations, announcements and surprises.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Instead, let’s focus on Week 9! There are four teams on bye, one giant matchup in Germany, absolute chaos in Vegas, and another primetime outing for Gang Green.
Between each of those focal points there remain a plethora of props that pop. Let’s dig in and start making that holiday bank.
QB Props
Taylor Heinicke OVER 13.5 rushing yards (vs. Vikings)
Liz: He’s baaaack! And I’m hyped for the return. Heinicke may not be a sterling passer, but he’s a wonderfully gutty player, who isn’t afraid to use his legs. The pride and joy of Old Dominion, Heinicke averaged nearly 11 rushing yards per game as a Commandeer in 2022. In his first appearance as a Falcon, he scampered for 14 rushing yards against a formidable Titans front. Noting Arthur Smith’s attachment to the ground game, I expect Heinicke to take off at least four or five times. The Vikings have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs (an average of 12.8/game). I think Heinicke flirts with 15 rushing yards in his first home start.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 0.5 interceptions (vs. Dolphins)
Daniel: I am so hyped for Heinicke’s first start in Atlanta. Let’s open up this Falcon’s offense a little bit, am I right? This year’s first Germany game between the Dolphins and Chiefs should have some fireworks, including on the defensive side of the ball. The Dolphins defense only has four interceptions on the year, but they just got Jalen Ramsey back and Xavien Howard has a chance at playing this week, making it the first time these two superstars have played next to each other this season. Mahomes has thrown eight picks in eight games. It’s likely this one will be a shootout with the implied total at 50.5, tied for the highest of the week. That narrative means we’ll see plenty of action through the air and given the what at least one pick for this Dolphins defense.
RB Props
Jonathan Taylor longest rush OVER 15.5 yards (at Panthers)
Daniel: We’ve started to see JT rediscover his explosiveness over the last few games, having big runs of 24 and 42 yards against the Browns and Saints. Luckily for us, he gets the Panthers this week and their defense is not nearly as intimidating as his last two matchups. The Panthers allow 139.4 rushing yards per game, but I don’t really want to take a rushing yards prop for Taylor knowing that Moss is still in the mix. A longest run prop is little more independent of Moss’ touches within this backfield, so let’s look at how many other RBs they’ve allowed to break off a 15 yard run so far this year: Craig Reynolds (twice), Tyler Allgeier (twice), David Montgomery, Raheem Mostert, Alexander Mattison, Kenneth Walker III, Bijan Robinson and Christoper Brooks. That’s 11 different runs over 15.5 yards in 9 games.
Kenneth Walker III OVER 53.5 rushing yards (at Ravens)
Liz: Walker is coming off a disappointing game in which he touched the ball season-low nine times, resulting in a season-low eight fantasy points. He was also dealing with a calf injury and in a brutal matchup versus the Browns. A down effort should have been anticipated. Despite the aforementioned obstacles, however, Walker still managed to rip off a 45-yard run. The dude has “it.” He’s cleared the above line in all but one game (Week 2) this season. Sure, the matchup at Baltimore is tough (the Ravens are allowing a YPC of 4.1) but Walker is bolstered by a pair of incredible field stretchers that are getting healthier. And even if Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf aren’t 100%, that could translate into more rushing opportunities for Walker. I’m confident he’ll find the necessary holes and cruise his way to around 65 rushing yards.
WR Props
Demario Douglas OVER 41.5 receiving yards (vs. Commanders)
Liz: A sixth-round pick out of Liberty, Douglas led New England’s corps in WR snaps (41) and targets (7) in the Patriots’ 14-point loss to the Dolphins in Week 8. Douglas reeled in a team-high five balls for 25 yards in that effort. With Kendrick Bourne (ACL) done for the year and DeVante Parker dealing with a concussion, the speedy slot man should see an increase in opportunities. He also draws a fire matchup this weekend versus Washington. The Commandeers secondary has allowed the most receiving yards (and scores) to opposing wideouts.
Tyreek Hill OVER 93.5 receiving yards (vs. Chiefs)
Daniel: Liz, we’ve had so much Douglas talk on Fantasy Focus this week, so I’m glad you mentioned him in this column. I’m in total agreement with you and love the call to take the over!
I’ve made a public declaration that one of my props for the rest of the season is going to be around Tyreek Hill as he chases 2,000 receiving yards. This week was tough to choose, but I ended up settling on going OVER 93.5 receiving yards. Listen, Tyreek is unlike any other WR in the game, so it’s tough to compare him to other WRs who have faced the Chiefs. Only two WRs have hit this mark — Joshua Palmer and Christian Kirk — so for another other player in the NFL right now, I’d probably take the under. But marrying Tyreek’s speed with Tua’s affinity to get him the ball and the way the offense moves him around to keep defenses on their heels, I just can’t bet against the dude yet. Hill has hit this mark in 5 of his 8 games this year and with the afformentioned total of 50.5, that implies a lot of offense. I’ll be watching the Dolphins game closely after I get done hosting Daily Wager this Sunday from 9-10 a.m. ET on ESPN2. Come hang with me for a little bit if you’re free.
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