Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints: Prediction, odds, picks

The Atlanta Falcons (4-6) will be attempting to snap a three-game losing run against the New Orleans Saints (5-5). Despite that, the Falcons are slim favorites (-1). 

The Falcons are coming off a close 25-23 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, while the Saints lost to the Minnesota Vikings in their last contest  27-19. 

Which team will take control of the lowly NFC South?

Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between the Saints and Falcons — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Chris “The Bear” Fallica.  

Falcons vs. Saints Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: New Orleans (+1) 
• Pick OU: Under (42) 
• Prediction: New Orleans 21 – Atlanta 20

I’ve been more than happy to bet against the Falcons this year, and I’ve fortunately been on the right side in most, as Atlanta has played six straight one-score games, going 2-4 with three straight losses. 

Enter Desmond Ridder back at QB off the bye week, so who knows how that will go. But I’m also not a believer in the Saints and will back the home team to end its slide. 

PICK: Falcons Pick ‘em (Falcons to win outright)

How to Watch Atlanta vs. New Orleans

• Game Date: Sunday, November 26, 2023
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• Location: Atlanta, Georgia
• TV: Watch on FOX

Falcons vs. Saints Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, New Orleans has tallied four wins against Atlanta.
• Over their last five head-to-head contests, New Orleans has racked up 114 points, while Atlanta has tallied 105.

Atlanta Betting Info

• Atlanta has two wins versus the spread in 10 games this season.
• The Falcons have covered the spread once this season (1-6 ATS) when playing as at least 1-point favorites.
• Atlanta games in 2023 have hit the over four times in 10 opportunities (40%).
• When playing as moneyline favorites, the Falcons are 3-4 (winning 42.9% of the time).
• In games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -112 or shorter, Atlanta has gone 3-4 (42.9%).
• The Falcons have a 52.8% chance to win this matchup, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Falcons Stats

Atlanta’s Key Players

Offense

• Desmond Ridder has 1,740 passing yards, six touchdowns and six interceptions this year. He has completed 65.4% of his passes, averaging 193.3 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt.
• He has also rushed for 150 yards (third on the Falcons) and added four touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 16.7 rushing yards per game.
• Bijan Robinson averages 4.9 yards per carry (eighth in the NFL) and 61.2 yards per game, and has 612 total rushing yards. He has recorded two rushing TDs this season.
• Robinson’s 43 targets through the air have turned into 29 catches (2.9 per game) for 208 yards (20.8 per game) and two touchdowns.
• Tyler Allgeier’s output on the ground this season includes 402 yards and three TDs. He is averaging 40.2 yards per game and 3.2 per attempt (43rd in the NFL).
• Drake London averages 4.4 receptions and 52.7 yards per game, and has 474 total receiving yards and 40 catches. He’s gotten 61 total targets, and has caught two touchdown passes.

Defense

• On the defensive side for the Falcons, Jessie Bates III has powered the unit with 73 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and three interceptions in 2023.
• Nathan Landman has 2.0 sacks (fifth on the Falcons) in addition to his 4.0 TFL, 69 tackles, and one interception.
• Kaden Elliss has totaled 73 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and two sacks this year. His tackle total leads the Falcons.
• So far this season, Richie Grant has 68 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and one interception.

New Orleans Betting Info

• New Orleans has covered the spread in a game two times this season (2-7-1).
• The Saints have been underdogs by 1 point or more once this season and covered the spread.
• This season, New Orleans games have hit the over three times.
• The Saints won the only game they’ve played as the underdog this season.
• New Orleans has played as an underdog of -108 or more once this season and won that game.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 51.9% chance of a victory for the Saints.

Saints Stats

New Orleans’ Key Players

Offense

• Derek Carr is averaging 6.7 passing yards per attempt (23rd in the NFL) and 223.1 yards per game this year, completing 65.9% of his passes on the way to 2,231 total yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions through 10 games.
• Alvin Kamara has 388 rushing yards (leading the Saints) and two rushing touchdowns, while averaging 55.4 yards per game and 3.7 per attempt (35th in the NFL).
• Kamara also has 50 catches for 305 yards (fourth on the Saints), with one receiving touchdown. He has been targeted 56 times and averages 43.6 yards per game.
• Through 10 games played this season, Chris Olave has 56 catches (5.6 receptions per game on 9.4 targets per game) for 657 yards and three receiving touchdowns.
• Rashid Shaheed has 525 receiving yards and three touchdowns from 31 receptions after getting 50 targets.

Defense

• Demario Davis has 73 tackles, 6.0 TFL, four sacks, and three passes defended in 2023.
• Carl Granderson’s stats include 44 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and 5.5 sacks.
• Paulson Adebo has 36 tackles and four interceptions in the 2023 season.
• Alontae Taylor has 43 tackles, 5.0 TFL, one sack, and 10 passes defended.

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