Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos: Prediction, odds, picks

The Buffalo Bills (5-4) are favored by 7.5 points versus the Denver Broncos (3-5) on November 13, starting at 8:15 PM ET, airing on ESPN. 

The Bills were defeated 24-18 by the Cincinnati Bengals in their Week 9 matchup, while the Broncos defeated the Kansas City Chiefs in their last game before enjoying a bye week.

Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between the Broncos and Bills — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from Will Hill. 

Bills vs. Broncos Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Buffalo (-7.5) 
• Pick OU: Over (47) 
• Prediction: Buffalo 31 – Denver 16

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill

On October 1, the Bills had one of the more impressive performances we’ve seen this season, dominating the red-hot Dolphins 48-20. 

Since then, however, it has been trending downwards for the Bills. They’ve lost three out of their last five games (0-5 ATS in that stretch), including a loss to the Patriots and a near-loss at home to the Giants. 

On defense, they are trying to overcome a rash of key injuries. On offense, it’s Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and not much else. 

Meanwhile, they take on a Broncos team that is playing much better in recent weeks, including an upset win over the Chiefs. 

In a league where so many games are close and low-scoring this season, I will take the hotter team getting a touchdown. 

PICK: Broncos (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points (or win outright)

How to Watch Buffalo vs. Denver

• Game Date: Monday, November 13, 2023
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Venue: Highmark Stadium
• Location: Orchard Park, New York
• TV: Watch on ESPN

Bills vs. Broncos Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Buffalo has collected four wins against Denver.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Buffalo has compiled 133 points versus Denver, while surrendering only 80 points.

Buffalo Betting Info

• Against the spread, Buffalo is 3-6-0 this season.
• The Bills have covered the spread once when favored by 7.5 points or more this season (in four opportunities).
• Buffalo has combined with its opponent to eclipsed the over/under in 33.3% of its contests this year (three times in nine games with a set point total).
• When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Bills have won 62.5% of the time (5-3).
• Buffalo has a 2-1 record (winning 66.7% of its games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -375 or shorter.
• The Bills have a 78.9% chance to win this matchup, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Bills Stats

Buffalo’s Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen has 2,423 passing yards (fourth in the NFL), 18 touchdowns (second in the NFL) and nine interceptions this year. He has completed 71.3% of his passes, averaging 269.2 yards per game and 7.5 per attempt.
• To go along with his passing statistics, Allen also has 233 rushing yards (second on the Bills), with six rushing touchdowns.
• Stefon Diggs‘ 834 receiving yards this season (third in the NFL) have come from 97 targets and 70 receptions (first in the NFL). He’s averaging 92.7 receiving yards and 7.8 catches per game, with seven receiving touchdowns (second in the NFL).
• James Cook’s output on the ground this season includes 506 yards (10th in the NFL) and one TD. He’s averaging 56.2 yards per game and 4.7 per attempt (eighth in the NFL).
• Cook has received 26 targets in the passing game and has 22 catches (2.4 per game) for 211 yards (23.4 per game) and one TD.
• Gabriel Davis averages 3.4 receptions and 48.2 yards per game, and has 434 total receiving yards and 31 catches. He’s gotten 49 total targets, and has caught five touchdown passes (seventh in the NFL).

Defense

• On the defensive side, Terrel Bernard has 2.0 sacks to go with 6.0 TFL, 80 tackles, and two interceptions in 2023.
• Ed Oliver has 28 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and five sacks this season.
• Taron Johnson has put up 46 tackles, 2.0 TFL, one sack, and three passes defended.
• This season, Jordan Poyer has 52 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and one sack. He’s second on the Bills in tackles.

Denver Betting Info

• Denver has covered the spread in a game two times this season (2-5-1).
• The Broncos have yet to cover the spread this year when underdogs by 7.5 points or more.
• Denver’s games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under four times this year.
• The Broncos have entered the game as underdogs four times this season and won twice.
• Denver has played as an underdog of +295 or more once this season and lost that game.
• The Broncos have a 25.3% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Broncos Stats

Denver’s Key Players

Offense

• Russell Wilson has passed for 1,613 yards this year, with 16 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and four interceptions. He is completing 66.1% of his attempts while averaging 201.6 yards per game and 6.9 per attempt.
• He’s added 201 yards on the ground (third on the Broncos), while scoring zero rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging 25.1 yards per game and 6.5 per attempt.
• Courtland Sutton has put together a 2023 stat sheet that includes 33 catches for 380 yards and six receiving touchdowns (fourth in the NFL) in eight games played. He has been on the receiving end of 46 targets and is averaging 4.1 receptions per game.
• So far this season in seven games, Javonte Williams has churned out 357 rushing yards (leading the Broncos), but has not scored a rushing touchdown. He averages 51.0 yards per game and 4.0 per attempt (22nd in the NFL).
• Williams’ offensive output includes 17 receptions (2.4 per game) on 22 targets for 78 yards (11.1 per game) and one receiving touchdown.
• Jaleel McLaughlin has scored one touchdown on the ground, while running for 268 total yards (7.1 per carry and 33.5 per game).
• McLaughlin also has 65 receiving yards (8.1 per game) on 12 catches (1.5 per game). He has been targeted 14 times with two touchdown receptions.

Defense

• So far in 2023, Alex Singleton has recorded 3.0 TFL and 71 tackles through eight games.
• Jonathon Cooper has 38 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and 4.5 sacks. He is fourth on the Broncos in tackles.
• In the 2023 campaign, Nik Bonitto has 21 tackles, 9.0 TFL, and 5.5 sacks in eight games.
• Zach Allen has totaled 3.0 sacks (third on the Broncos) to go with 6.0 TFL and 35 tackles through eight games.

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