It’s hard to believe the calendar has flipped to November, and we’ve been betting on football for two months this year.
Time flies when you’re having fun.
I’ve circled three college football games and two NFL wagers for this weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
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No 23 Kansas State Wildcats @ No. 7 Texas Longhorns (-4, O/U 49.5)
Prepare for a slugfest in Austin.
These two defensive lines are extremely solid, and I expect those units to dictate how this game plays out. The Longhorns are starting redshirt freshman Maalik Murphy at quarterback again, and he is far from a threat to beat K-State with home-run plays down the field. His screen passes that worked against BYU won’t work on Saturday.
This total opened at 51 in Las Vegas, and it got hit immediately to 50. The crawl has continued into Friday, where the market now sits at 49.5 and 49. Go under one of the remaining 49.5s before all the hooks disappear.
I’m feeling a 24-17 final.
PICK: Under 49.5 points scored by both teams combined
No. 15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3, O/U 44.5) @ Clemson Tigers
Are you feeling froggy?
I’m taking down Notre Dame this weekend.
The Irish continue their strenuous 2023 schedule with another tough football game in Death Valley. They’ve only had one week off since beginning the campaign in Dublin and it’s fair to wonder if they’re running out of gas.
Meanwhile, Clemson has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country with three losses by one score, two of which came in overtime. The Tigers are tough in the trenches and have the NFL bodies to negate Notre Dame’s run game.
If we get Clemson’s “A” game here, it’ll handle business.
Take the points.
PICK: Clemson (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
No. 21 Kansas Jayhawks @ Iowa State Cyclones (-2.5, O/U 53)
We nailed Kansas last week and now it’s time to flip.
The Jayhawks hit the road after a super-emotional upset over Oklahoma, which made them bowl-eligible for the second straight season. I give all the credit in the world to head coach Lance Leipold for morphing KU from a bottom feeder into a team that could win 10 games.
That said, I like the other side.
Iowa State has been a Big 12 dream killer since Matt Campbell arrived on campus, and the Cyclones are a sneaky 4-1 in the very wide-open Big 12. Their defense is one of the most efficient in the country and I think they’ll force Jayhawks quarterback Jason Bean into some crucial mistakes.
I would rather lay the moneyline than -2.5 at -110.
PICK: Iowa State ( -145 moneyline) to win outright
Louisville vs. Virginia Tech, LSU at Alabama, Washington vs. USC best bets in Week 10
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints (-8.5, O/U 41)
Derek Carr is laying how many points?!
The forever-average quarterback is 17-34-2 ATS (33%) when installed as a betting favorite and I’ve made tons of money over the years against him. Moreover, New Orleans is averaging only 21 points per game.
I do respect the Saints’ stingy defense and it will not be easy for the Bears to move the ball with rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent. But math is math. New Orleans opened as a 5.5-point favorite and I just can’t justify a three-point move through the “7,” even against Chicago.
It won’t be popular, but I’ll plug and play the dog.
PICK: Bears (+8.5) to lose by fewer than 8.5 points (or win outright)
Will Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott be the better QB in Eagles vs. Cowboys?
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3, O/U 47)
America’s Game of the Week.
These two NFC East titans meet Sunday in Philadelphia and I think it’s very interesting that the Eagles opened -3 and the line hasn’t budged. There’s clearly plenty of monetary support for the Cowboys in the desert.
It’s been almost a month since Dallas got blown out in San Francisco and the defense has done a decent job picking up the pieces after the injuries to Trevon Diggs and Leighton Vander Esch. And I love the idea of Micah Parsons keying up Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts all afternoon.
Something is clearly wrong with Hurts, too. He’s already thrown eight interceptions this season — one pick per game — and the Eagles’ red-zone offense continues to struggle. They’re barely scoring touchdowns on 50% of their red-zone trips after converting at 68% last season.
Dallas is very live in this spot.
PICK: Cowboys (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
2023 Record: (19-22-1, -5.0)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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