We have reached the halfway point of Eliminator Challenge. Each week will involve more strategy and planning ahead, as it becomes a delicate balance of picking winners in the current week and making sure you have quality options in the future. While the current week always takes priority, always look ahead to the next week.
The Dallas Cowboys are by far the biggest favorites on the board this week, laying more than two touchdowns at ESPN BET. Both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics give them the best chance to win of any team this week. The Cowboys are also among the biggest favorites in each of the next two weeks, but this week’s situation is likely too good to pass up.
On the other hand, the Buffalo Bills are similarly sized favorites both this week and next week against the New York Jets. If you are considering the Bills, take a look at next week’s schedule, consider whether you prefer them against the Broncos or the Jets, and see if you are more comfortable with your other choices this week or next week.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
This is the third-most lopsided game all season according to ESPN Analytics as the Tommy DeVito-led Giants are rated as the worst team in the NFL. It’s by far the biggest point spread of the week. Plus, the Cowboys are being selected at a lower percentage than expected simply because many people have already used them.
The only reason to consider fading the Cowboys is their upcoming schedule, as they visit the Panthers and host the Commanders in the next two weeks. If you’re uncomfortable with those two weeks, then maybe consider putting off them off until then when you can get them even lower-selected. Other than that, the Cowboys are the clear pick.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 85%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 90%
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ESPN BET odds: 16.5-point favorites (-1400 moneyline)
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
The analytical models are still very high on the Bills despite their recent losses. ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay both give the Bills the second-best chance to win this week, with ESPN Analytics having a nine percent gap between them and the Ravens, and Mike Clay having a four percent gap.
As far as strategy goes, it’s a tough choice between the Bills and Ravens as the next-safest choice. If you have already used the Cowboys, but you have both the Bills and either Dolphins or 49ers available, then use the Bills this week. If not, then consider pivoting to the Baltimore Ravens, who have a slightly lower chance to win this week but gives you a much better chance to win next week.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 82%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 79%
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ESPN BET odds: 7.5-point favorites (-380 moneyline)
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET
This pick is hard to stomach, but if you have played it safe in previous weeks by picking most of the Super Bowl favorites, this could be a time to pivot to a lesser team like the Bears or Seattle Seahawks. Very few players still have the Seahawks available, so if you still have them available, they become the best pivot as their selection percentages will be extremely low.
If not, the Bears become an appealing pick. Mike Clay actually gives the Bears the fourth-highest percent chance to win this week. The Panthers are rated as the second-worst team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, and every time they are on the road, their opponent is a logical pick.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 74%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 62%
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ESPN BET odds: 4-point favorites (-190 moneyline)
