NBA Roundtable: In-Season Tournament bracket predictions

We’re down to the final eight teams in the NBA In-Season Tournament after the group stage wrapped up in dramatic fashion on Tuesday.

This week, we asked FOX Sports’ panel of NBA reporters — Ric Bucher, Melissa Rohlin and Yaron Weitzman — to reflect on the group stage and make their predictions for the tournament’s quarterfinals and the Final Four, which will tip off in Las Vegas on Dec. 7 and conclude with the final on Dec. 9.

1. As a viewer, did the stakes feel real to you at all on the final day of group play, and if not, do you expect that to change in the knockout stage?

Weitzman: I was a cynic coming into this thing, and I didn’t really care about the In-Season Tournament for the first few weeks. But I’ll be honest: I found the last set of games on Tuesday night to be a lot of fun. The games felt different, and point differential serving as one of the tie-breakers made things fun and different. It doesn’t have to all make sense, but the goal was to add some juice to these early-season regular season games. With that being the case, I think we can call this thing a success — and I expect the knockout stage to be a lot of fun.

Rohlin: The in-season tournament has been a lot of fun. I didn’t know if $500,000 would be enough to incentivize millionaires to buy-in, but apparently it is. Guys are taking this seriously, which makes it very fun for viewers. The knockout portion is going to be especially exciting because not only will guys be playing for money, but they’ll be playing for pride.

Bucher: My biggest complaint about the in-season tournament was that the games were mixed in with regular-season games instead of being a stand-alone event, part of the season but completely separate. I also wasn’t sure if the players would be motivated by it — but clearly they are. I love the wrinkle that scoring differential has created, prompting teams with a big lead to continue being aggressive. We’ve seen how competitive the play-in games have been with one-and-done potential, and I would expect teams to have the same approach here. What’s the point of working to win your pool and then downshift? Besides, even for NBA players, $500,000 is a nice bonus for a couple of weeks’ work.

2. Now time for everyone’s favorite: Predictions, starting in the Eastern Conference with Celtics-Pacers and Knicks-Bucks. Which two teams do you think will emerge victorious from those matchups?

Weitzman: I’ll go with the Celtics and Bucks. Those are the better teams, and I expect their respective players and coaching staffs to treat these games like a playoff matchup. In those cases, talent usually wins out.

Rohlin: Even though the Pacers have been rolling, it’s hard to bet against the Bucks and Celtics in games that matter. The exciting thing is if those teams win, this could end up being an Eastern Conference finals preview. That would add even more intrigue to a winner-takes-all game in the semifinals. Let the fun begin.

Bucher: I’ll roll with Celtics and Bucks, but I would not be surprised if the Knicks upset Milwaukee. The Pacers have been the best offensive team in the league to this point, but Boston is going to feast on their 28th-ranked defense. When the two teams met earlier this season, the Celtics scored 155 points and won by 51. The Pacers’ 104 points in that game is a season low. The Knicks, meanwhile, have a more balanced team right now than Milwaukee and I don’t see the Bucks defender who makes life hard on Jalen Brunson, which is why he scored 45 against them earlier this season. I don’t know who on the Knicks makes life hard for Giannis Antetokounmpo, either, but his free-throw issues make both him and the Bucks vulnerable in a close game.

3. Same question, but in the Western Conference with Pelicans-Kings and Suns-Lakers.

Weitzman: Here the matchups seem more even. With that being the case, I’ll bet on Lebron James and Kevin Durant.

Rohlin: I’m going to go with Lakers vs. Kings. Sure, that means I’m overlooking the Lakers’ recent 44-point drubbing. But if LeBron James has decided he wants to go to Las Vegas, LeBron James will be going to Vegas. As for the Pelicans vs. Kings, did you see how well De’Aaron Fox played in the playoffs last postseason against the Warriors? He has proven that he can shine in huge games. Meanwhile, Zion Williamson hasn’t really had a chance to prove that with all of his injuries. So, my money would be on the Kings.

Bucher: CJ McCollum is back for the Pelicans and Jonas Valanciunas eats against height-challenged teams like the Kings, so I’m going to roll with New Orleans. As for Lakers-Suns, I’m still trying to figure out exactly how good either of these teams are. The Suns have played the softest schedule in the league and their 11 wins include only one against a bona fide quality opponent, the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Lakers are barely above .500 and certainly not elite, but they’ve beaten the Suns twice already — although Devin Booker didn’t play in either one and the Lakers were at full strength. I’ll go with the Suns’ massive advantage in three-point shooting to be the prevailing factor.

[2023 NBA In-Season Tournament odds tracker: Celtics favored entering knockout round]

4. We’re down to your Final Four. Which teams will go head-to-head in the Final in Vegas and who will be the last team standing? Please explain your answer.

Weitzman: I guess I’ll go with the Celtics. They’ve been the best team in the NBA so far.

Rohlin: It’s going to be Lakers vs. Celtics. First of all, how fun would that be considering their rich histories? They’ve both won an NBA-record-tying 17 championships. If they met in the Final game of the In-Season tournament, that would just be the latest chapter of excitement for these two dominant franchises.

Bucher: Celtics-Suns meet in the Final and Celtics claim the first in-season tournament title. Both are ideally built for one-and-done competition and, along with the Lakers, have the most playoff-type experience. But much like March Madness, any and all upsets should not come as a surprise.

5. If you had to pick an NBA In-Season Tournament MVP today, who would it be? Please explain your answer.

Weitzman: Joe Mazzulla. He went to the Hack-a-Drummond with a 30-point lead in the fourth quarter!

Rohlin: Easy, Kevin Durant. He has averaged 35.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 7.7 assists for the Suns during the in-season tournament. Not to mention, he has shot a ridiculous 75 percent from beyond the 3-point line, making 12 of his 16 attempts from that distance.

Bucher: I thought about being snarky and saying Scott Foster or the referees collectively because of how games have been officiated lately, but both he and they get enough grief and they’re only following league orders. So I’ll go with Tyrese Haliburton. The Pacers are 4-0 and he averaged 28.5 points and 13.5 assists over those four games. The Pacers are not a good defensive team, but Haliburton is in no way the reason.

[2023 NBA In-Season Tournament Bracket, groups, format, NBA Cup explained]

Melissa Rohlin is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the league for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Times, the Bay Area News Group and the San Antonio Express-News. Follow her on Twitter @melissarohlin.

Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He is the author of “Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports.” Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, “Rebound,” on NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and “Yao: A Life In Two Worlds.” He also has a daily podcast, “On The Ball with Ric Bucher.” Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.

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