What is worth betting in the NFL in Week 10? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Seth Walden, Anita Marks and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
The Bengals now have rattled off four wins in a row, including victories over the 49ers, Bills and Seahawks. They enter Week 10 at +1100 to win the Super Bowl and +550 to win the AFC. Where are you at on the Bengals, and are any of their future bets appealing to you?
Fulghum: Before the season started I stated the Bengals would miss the playoffs and finish last in the AFC North. After the first four weeks of the season, I looked like a genius. Joe Burrow and the offense were sluggish. Cincinnati was 1-3. Since then, however, they’ve ripped off four-straight wins with Burrow looking every bit like the QB that has led his team to two consecutive AFC title game appearances. Despite that surge, the Bengals are still last place in the AFC North. They’re currently 0-2 in the division so they have plenty of work to do. I’m going to hold my position that they miss the playoffs, but I have to admit they look like one of the better teams in the AFC at the moment. My preseason hot takes are in serious danger, but I’ll refrain from hedging them by buying Bengals futures. Now is the time to strike, though, if you are a Bengals believer, and I wouldn’t blame anyone for doing so.
Schatz: I am absolutely a believer that Joe Burrow is now fully healthy and the Bengals are a completely different offense from what we saw in the first few weeks. The defense has recently improved as well. And yet, the Bengals are not a good bet right now because their schedule gets very, very difficult the rest of the way. They have the hardest remaining schedule in the league based on average DVOA of opponents. The Ravens are blowing out opponents, the Chiefs are super dangerous, the Browns have that great defense, the Jaguars are sneaky good, and the Bengals don’t have a single game remaining against a team that ranks below 18th in DVOA right now. The only future Bengals bet that appeals to me would be under 10.5 wins because of that schedule difficulty.
Marks: Joe Burrow MVP (7/1). The proof is in the pudding. The Bengals have won four straight, and three of the four games against above .500 teams (Bills, 49ers, and Seahawks). Burrow’s calf has healed, and Cool Joe arrived for the 2023 season four weeks ago. In Cincinnati’s past four games, Burrow has averaged over 250 yards and tossed 10 TD passes to only two INTs.
The Ravens (-6.5, 38.5) host the Browns in a clash of two of the league’s top defenses. How are you betting this game?
Fulghum: I like the UNDER 38.5 in this matchup. The two teams met earlier this season with Baltimore winning 28-3, but that was with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB for Cleveland. Deshaun Watson is healthy for this game, but it’s the second time they’ve matched up and these elite defenses have plenty of tape to lean into. I think the Ravens are the better team and win this game at home, but the scoring might be at a premium given the quality of defense we have on both sides.
Walder: Give me Ravens -6.5. Cleveland’s defense is exceptional, yes. But its strength is stopping the pass, where it ranks second in EPA per play allowed. But it ranks only 10th in EPA per play allowed stopping the run, and that’s where the Ravens are best (though truthfully, they can beat you multiple ways). Plus, I have a hard time imagining Cleveland passing against the Ravens’ defense that ranks second in open score, refusing to let opposing receivers find space.
Schatz: Interestingly, DVOA disagrees with EPA on the Browns’ run defense. DVOA ranks the Browns No. 1 against both the pass and the run, in part because of opponent adjustments. (They’ve played the No. 5 hardest schedule of opposing offenses.) And yet, I’m with Seth on Ravens -6.5. I just don’t believe in Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland offense against a Ravens defense that’s been almost as good as the Browns’ defense. In fact, this year the Browns have 8% DVOA when Watson passes without a blitz compared to -41% DVOA when Watson passes with a blitz. Do you think Mike Macdonald and the Ravens might be blitzing Watson a bit on Sunday?
Marks: Give me the Ravens, too. Baltimore has won four straight, is 8-3 ATS its past 11 games, and one can argue that it’s the best team in the NFL. The Ravens are one of the few teams in the NFL who still have a legit home-field advantage. Watson has not been setting the NFL on fire and now faces one of the best defenses in the league, without a healthy offensive line.
C.J. Stroud (-1000) has moved way out in front in the Rookie of the Year race. Are you betting on Stroud or like another player at longer odds?
Fulghum: If you have a crystal ball that is informing you of an imminent Stroud injury, then by all means bet on other players in this market. Unless you have that knowledge, though, Stroud is the only bet you can make at this point.
Walder: I would bet on Puka Nacua (+1200) because truthfully at this point he should be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. He ranks fourth in receiving yards in the entire league. He has been a better receiver than Stroud has been a quarterback. Unfortunately I don’t think voters will see it that way — like they didn’t a few years ago when Justin Herbert beat out Justin Jefferson — but there’s enough of a chance they do that I’d back Nacua.
Schatz: Unless something unexpected happens in the second half of the season, I think Stroud passed Nacua with the huge game he had against Tampa Bay last week, including the fourth-quarter comeback. Sorry, Rams fans.
What is your favorite prop bet on Sunday?
Fulghum: Sam Howell OVER 36.5 pass attempts. Howell is on pace to drop back more than 750 times this season. The Commanders are once again a big road underdog begetting the type of game script we want for Howell to throw the ball a lot against the Seahawks. Howell has thrown 40+ times in five of his past six games played. It’s very easy to see that happening again.
Moody: Amon-Ra St. Brown over 85.5 receiving yards. St. Brown has been phenomenal for the Lions. He’s averaged 11.1 targets and plays around 90% of Detroit’s offensive snaps, and runs a route on around 93% of Detroit’s dropbacks. St. Brown has surpassed 85.5 receiving yards in five of his past six games. It should be a feast for him against the Chargers defense that allows the most passing yards per game.
Schatz: Michael Thomas over 43.5 receiving yards. The Vikings rank sixth in DVOA against No. 1 receivers but 30th in DVOA against No. 2 receivers. They allow more yards per game to the WR2 than the WR1. The Vikings also rank 21st against short passes (up to 15 air yards) but ninth against deep passes. Both stats suggest that Thomas could have an important game as a possession receiver for Derek Carr.
Marks: Tony Pollard anytime TD. The Giants’ season is over. They are on their third-string QB and last week we saw a Giants defense wave the white towel. Dallas should have its way against the Giants, and I expect a ton of ball-control time in this game.
Is there anything else you’re playing Sunday?
Fulghum: I really like UNDER 38.5 in the Steelers/Packers matchup. Pittsburgh is somehow 5-3 despite being outgained in every game it has played. Its offense is anything but dynamic. On the other side, Jordan Love has seemingly regressed all season. I do not like his chances for success on the road against T.J. Watt & Co. He could be in for a long day.
Moody: Alvin Kamara OVER 34.5 receiving yards. Kamara could be leaned on more as a receiver out of the backfield against the Vikings. In four consecutive games, he has had four or more receptions and exceeded 34.5 receiving yards. As a team, the Vikings’ defense ranks 10th in run stop win rate and 12th in rushing yardage allowed. The Saints’ offensive line ranks 29th in pass block win rate, which positions Kamara to be the recipient of many checkdowns from quarterback Derek Carr.
Moody: DeAndre Hopkins OVER 61.5 receiving yards. There is an undeniable chemistry between Titans quarterback Will Levis and Hopkins. Levis has a passer rating of 132.3 when targeting Hopkins over the past two games. During that time, the veteran receiver has stockpiled 17 targets. Hopkins faces a Buccaneers defense that gives up the second most receiving yards per game. He’s averaged 77.5 receiving yards in his career.
Schatz: I’m playing a six-point teaser with Saints +3.5 and over 35. We don’t know how good Joshua Dobbs can be as the permanent quarterback of the Vikings, but it is likely he will be closer to the Dobbs we’ve seen over the past couple of years than the Dobbs we saw specifically last Sunday. Against a strong Saints defense, that’s a recipe for a loss. But at the same time, I don’t think it’s going to be a game without any scoring whatsoever, and 35 is a pretty low total to tease this down to.
