NFL midseason betting recap: Best, worst teams against the spread, award favorites

Contents

Against the Spread Overs/Unders Herd Hierarchy: Chargers return, Ravens remain atop in Colin’s Top 10 of Week 10 The Awards Races

We’ve reached the mid-point of the 2023 NFL season, and a quick look at the standings indicates which teams are contenders and which are pretenders for Super Bowl LVIII based on their records.

However, savvy bettors know that simply looking at records does not tell the whole story when it comes to making money.

To begin with, there are some teams that are great for bettors against the spread (ATS), although they may not be a great team straight up (SU). The opposite is also true.

To recap how the first half of the season has gone, FOX Sports Research did a deep dive into the best (and worst) performing teams and how teams toward their totals.

Lastly, we’ll also jump into who the first-half betting favorites are to win the major individual awards. A couple of the leaders may surprise you.

Let’s jump into the numbers for our midseason betting recap.

Against the Spread

Which team has performed the best against the spread? It’s a two-way tie between the Detroit Lions and the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have both gone 6-2 ATS during the first half of the season.

The Lions, who are also 6-2 SU, have become the darlings of the betting world. In fact, this is just a carryover from last season when they finished 12-5 ATS, good for the third-best ATS record in the league. However, this year, they are getting victories along with those covers and are looking to make the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars have also turned heads this season for bettors, as both their SU and ATS records sit at 6-2. Led by Trevor Lawerence and Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville has a balanced attack that not only consistently covers but has them sitting at the top of the AFC South at the midway point.

Best teams ATS so far this season:

Best Teams ATS

On the other end of the spectrum sit the Carolina Panthers, who are in sole position of being the worst team ATS at 1-6-1. With a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young, the inexperienced squad has seen their fair share of hard knocks as they’ve struggled to put up points most Sundays. In fact, in five of their eight games, including their sole win, they have failed to notch 20 points en route to a 1-7 record.

As for surprises, the New Orleans Saints find themselves with the dubious distinction of being a winning team SU (5-4), yet unprofitable ATS with a record of 2-6-1, landing as the fourth-worst ATS team this season.

Worst teams ATS in the first half of the season:

Worst Teams ATS

Here are some other ATS betting gems unearthed by the FOX Sports Research Team:

Double-digit dogs ATS/SU

Double-digit underdogs are 2-7 ATS and 1-8 SU

Home Favs ATS/SU

Home favorites are 42-35-3 ATS and 54-26 SU

Home Dogs ATS/SU

Home underdogs are 22-28-3 ATS and 18-35 SU

Road Favs ATS/SU

Road favorites are 27-22-3 ATS and 34-18 SU

Road Dogs ATS/SU

Road underdogs are 35-41-3 ATS and 26-53 SU

Overs/Unders

As for totals, to put it quite simply, Unders have dominated. FOX Sports Betting Analyst Patrick Everson wrote:

“Through nine weeks and 136 games, the Under is 83-52-1 this season, a money-making 61.5%. [Head of U.S. trading for PointsBet, Kevin] Lawler pointed out that 16 teams – half the league – have new offensive coordinators this season, the most since 2019. He said there’s no question that much change has contributed to lower-scoring outputs across the NFL.

“Such a change brings entirely new playbooks, personnel changes and offensive decisions. With only one training camp to get in sync, it is no surprise that offenses have been struggling for the first half of the season,” Lawler said.

Here are some first-half Over/ Under nuggets.

The Under has hit in 83 of 136 games
The Under has hit in 17 of 25 prime-time games this season (kickoff of 7 PM EST or later)

Herd Hierarchy: Chargers return, Ravens remain atop in Colin’s Top 10 of Week 10

The Awards Races

No midseason betting recap would be complete without a list of the favorites for the six major awards. Here are the leaders (and close contenders) for the NFL’s hardware at Points Bet Sportsbook.

Most Valuable Player: Patrick Mahomes (+300)