C.J. Stroud’s historic night and Patrick Mahomes outdueling Tua Tagovailoa helped shape the awards markets in Week 9. Here is a look at how each market stands entering Week 10 at ESPN BET.
MVP
Last week’s Chiefs-Dolphins game predictably had a major impact on this market. Mahomes is back to being the solo favorite, while Tagovailoa’s price slipped to +750, the longest odds he has had since the season began.
Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are right on Mahomes’ tail. Mahomes, Hurts and Tagovailoa are all on bye this week, and Jackson has a tough matchup against the Browns.
Joe Burrow is next at +850 after he was 40-1 two weeks ago before beating the 49ers and Bills. This should be a pretty stagnant market at the top this week with so many favorites on bye, so if you believe any of the longer shots has a chance, now could be a good entry point.
Offensive Player of the Year
This market is a perfect example of why you should not bet players ahead of their bye weeks. Tyreek Hill had a great opportunity against his former team in a standalone game, but he only had 62 yards and a key fumble. However, with McCaffrey’s 49ers on bye, Hill still passed McCaffrey in the odds. Hill seems like the worthy favorite, but with him on bye this week, there is no reason to bet him this week.
A.J. Brown, the third favorite, is also on bye this week.
Defensive Player of the Year
There has been very little movement in this market all season, with Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt sitting as the three favorites all season. Garrett and Watt have better statistical profiles than Parsons, but Parsons’ Cowboys are more likely to make the playoffs and maintain their level of play.
Parsons has the best opportunity to have a big statistical week as he faces the Giants offensive line and Tommy DeVito making his first career start, but he is already the +180 favorite. Until there are reports of who the voters are leaning towards, this market will likely remain similar.
Coach of the Year
This is an award with very few clear candidates besides Dan Campbell, and this is a pivotal week for Campbell’s chances. ESPN Analytics rates this as the Lions’ second-toughest remaining game. If they win, the Lions schedule puts them in position to win a lot of games. They are currently +160 to win 13 games, which would almost certainly win Campbell this award, and -175 to win 12 games, which gives Campbell a good chance considering the lack of other candidates. However, if they lose, this market becomes wide open.
The second favorite, Mike McDaniel, already took the Dolphins to the playoffs last season and has three losses. DeMeco Ryans and Robert Saleh are next, and their teams are +240 and +320 to make the playoffs, and Ryans is a big underdog this week. If the Lions lose, there is room for a coach of a potential surprise playoff team or of a team with a gaudy record to make a move.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
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Favorite: C.J. Stroud (-1000)
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Last week’s favorite: Stroud (-160)
No market moved last week more than Offensive Rookie of the Year, rightfully so. C.J. Stroud set an NFL rookie record with 470 passing yards, and he tied a record with five touchdown passes. He’s now a prohibitive -1000 favorite. The performance creates a massive statistical gap between Stroud and the other rookie quarterbacks.
Injuries to Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins hurt the cases for Puka Nacua and Jordan Addison, while David Montgomery’s return this week should slow Jahmyr Gibbs. This appears to be Stroud’s award barring an injury or massive regression of performance.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
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Favorite: Jalen Carter (-240)
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Last week’s favorite: Carter (-120)
Carter’s favorite price shortened significantly after he had another half-sack and played well in the Eagles win over the Cowboys. His price will likely lengthen this week with the Eagles on bye. Statistically, Carter is tied for second among rookies in sacks with Chargers DL Tuli Tuipulotu (33-1).
The rookie sacks leader is actually Rams LB Byron Young, who isn’t listed in many markets, including at ESPN BET. Young is on bye this week. Players to watch in this market could be Texans DE Will Anderson, who still rates first among rookies in pressures and pass rush win rate but doesn’t have the stats to back up his advanced metrics.
The Lions-Chargers game also could affect this market with Tuipulotu, Devon Witherspoon and Brian Branch all playing in that game. If one of those rookies shines, their price could shorten significantly.
Odds by ESPN BET
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