Last week’s Eagles-Chiefs result caused a major shift in the MVP market. Despite going 14-for-22 for 150 yards and an interception, Jalen Hurts passed Patrick Mahomes to become the new favorite to win MVP.
Hurts is now +225 to win that award, which makes MVP the most wide-open awards market on paper. Here is how MVP and the rest of the awards markets shape up entering Week 12 at ESPN BET.
MVP
For the first time all season, Jalen Hurts is the outright favorite in this market after outdueling Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Hurts’ counting stats don’t stand out as he ranks 10th in passing yards, and T-13th in passing touchdowns. Only four players have thrown more interceptions. However, as the starting quarterback for the team with the best record, he has a great chance, especially once you factor in his nine rushing touchdowns, third-most in the NFL. Every candidate including Hurts has serious flaws.
Mahomes is seventh in passing yards and has as many interceptions as Hurts. Tua Tagovailoa’s stats have started to fall off, and Tyreek Hill could siphon some votes from him. Lamar Jackson has thrown for just 12 touchdowns all season and hasn’t even had his bye week yet.
Brock Purdy is perhaps the most interesting candidate of the longer shots. He is first in Total QBR, sixth in yards, and has an 18-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His candidacy could largely come down to the 49ers’ Week 13 matchup in Philadelphia.
Offensive Player of the Year
Tyreek Hill is now the solo favorite in this market after yet another 146-yard week. He remains on pace for over 2,000 receiving yards, which gives him a great chance to win this award, especially after A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb both failed to put up big performances. He now has a 209-yard lead over both Brown and Lamb, and he has at least three more touchdowns than both. The one issue with betting Hill this week is he faces the Jets, which have one of the stingiest pass defenses in the NFL.
Christian McCaffrey is the second favorite, as he leads the NFL with 14 touchdowns. He faces the Seahawks this week. McCaffrey needs to score 10 touchdowns in his next seven games to break Jerry Rice’s franchise record. With Hill on pace to set the receiving yards record, McCaffrey may need to set a record of his own to keep pace.
Defensive Player of the Year
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Favorite: Myles Garrett (+110)
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Last week’s favorite: Garrett (+140)
This has been a three-man race all season, but Myles Garrett seems to have all the momentum. He had two more sacks last week, and he now leads the NFL with 13 sacks for a Browns team that could have the best defense in the NFL and is a heavy -425 favorite to make the playoffs.
Micah Parsons has lagged behind Garrett and T.J. Watt statistically all season, but he had 2.5 sacks last week, and he faces the most-sacked quarterback in the NFL this week in Sam Howell. This could be a chance for Parsons to close the statistical gap with Garrett. Watt’s odds have slowly been falling, but facing Jake Browning in his first career start could provide opportunities.
Coach of the Year
Dan Campbell remains the +150 favorite after the Lions held off the Bears. Campbell has been one of the favorites all season, and with the Lions having the second-highest projected win total both from ESPN Analytics and ESPN BET, Campbell has a very strong case if they keep winning. Eighteen of the past 20 winners improved their teams by at least four games, and ESPN BET gives the Lions -105 odds to win 13 games.
DeMeco Ryans continues to push Campbell. Taking a 3-13-1 team to the playoffs could get Ryans this award, and the Texans are now -185 favorites to make the playoffs. This is a pivotal week for Ryans as the Texans can tie the Jaguars for the division lead with a home win this week, and they would hold the tiebreaker.
Nick Sirianni moved from 20-1 to 11-1 after the Eagles upset the Chiefs. Sean Payton also rides a four- game winning streak at 50-1, trying to take a 5-12 team to the playoffs after a 1-5 start this season.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
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Favorite: C.J. Stroud (-3500)
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Last week’s favorite: Stroud (-2000)
Stroud continues to grow his lead in this market after throwing for 336 yards against the Cardinals. Stroud leads the NFL in passing yards per game this season and has a chance to lead the Texans to a shocking playoff appearance. If he stays healthy, this award is essentially his, despite a late run from Jahmyr Gibbs. We are probably a few weeks away from Stroud locking up this award, regardless of injury.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
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Favorite: Jalen Carter (-165)
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Last week’s favorite: Carter (-190)
Jalen Carter remains the odds-on favorite despite another lackluster statistical week. In his past four games since coming back from injury, Carter has a total of seven tackles and a half-sack. Carter still has four sacks on the season, tied for second among rookies. His case could end up being a mix of statistics, reputation, and team success, as the Eagles have the best record in the NFL.
Devon Witherspoon remains the second favorite at +145. He had his third sack of the season last night in a loss to the Rams, but did not break up a pass. He’s still looking for his second interception of the season.
After Witherspoon, every other candidate is at least 18-1 or better. The odds have suggested this as a two-man race all season, but there remains room for someone to join Carter and Witherspoon with a late-season push, especially with both favorites in the midst of their toughest schedule stretches of the season.
Odds by ESPN BET
