I can’t believe it’s already Week 9 of the NFL season.
As we cross the halfway point of the season, the stakes are getting higher. Can Josh Allen get his interceptions under control against the Cincinnati Bengals and help lead the Buffalo Bills back into title contention? Or will Joe Burrow & Co. continue their stellar second-half play of the past two seasons?
Also, how will the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins fare in Germany as Tyreek Hill faces his former squad for the first time? Could this be a preview of the AFC championship game?
I am 27-20 with my picks this season, and I intend to keep that positive outcome going as the season unfolds. So, without further ado, let’s dive into my best bets for Week 9.
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This number was -6.5 on Sunday, but after the Saints hung 38 on the Indianapolis Colts and the Bears were buried on Sunday Night Football by the Los Angeles Chargers, the line surged.
After looking impressive at home against a passive Raiders defense, Tyson Bagent struggled to move the ball vs. the Chargers before garbage time. He now faces a much more sturdy defense in what should be a juiced-up dome as the Saints look to take control of the NFC South.
The concern, obviously, is Derek Carr’s history as a favorite. He’s just 18-34-3 ATS (Raiders and Saints) when laying points, and now he needs to cover by nearly double digits. The last time they were favored by more than a field goal was -4.5 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and they lost outright, 26-9.
But the Bears are walking wounded, with second-leading tackler Tremaine Edmunds and safety Jaquan Brisker both missing practice time this week. The Bears are preparing to start undrafted linebacker Jack Sanborn in the middle, and rookie Noah Sewell (who has played 15 defensive snaps) will start against the run.
That’s suboptimal against Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill.
I laid the points, and the Saints are a perfect teaser side to -2.
PICK: Saints (-8.5) to win by more than 8.5 points
Did Chiefs or Dolphins win the Tyreek Hill trade?
Dolphins vs. Chiefs @ Frankfurt, Germany (9:30 a.m., NFL)
Yes, the Chiefs looked terrible last week, but we called the spot in this column.
Trends are just data points, and it’s tough to ignore some of these: Patrick Mahomes when favored by less than 3: 19-6-1 against the spread (ATS); KC is 12-2 ATS as a favorite of less than three in neutral site/road games.
Of course, I’m concerned that the Dolphins have been in Germany all week, and KC just arrived today. History says the team that arrives overseas early has a body clock advantage. Late arrival has usually translated to slow starts, and you can’t do that against this Miami offense, or you’re playing catch-up.
Of all the great matchups in this game (Trent McDuffie vs. Tyreek Hill; Jalen Ramsey vs Travis Kelce, etc), keep an eye on center. If Liam Eichenberg has to start for the injured Connor Williams, there’s a massive edge to Chris Jones in the middle, as the Notre Dame converted guard has graded out as the 38th out of 38 centers.
PICK: Chiefs (-2) to win by more than 2 points
Bills at Bengals: BUF looks to avenge playoff loss vs. CIN
Bills @ Bengals (8:20 p.m., NBC)
This line doesn’t make sense. It’s the first time Buffalo has been an underdog this year. Is Buffalo remotely the same team it was coming into the season?
They wanted to be a two-tight end offense that could run the ball more. However, you can’t do that with the Dawson Knox injury. So they went back to three WR sets, where Josh Allen thrives, but it’s also the spot he likes to make hero ball plays.
Let’s see if he goes after Cam Taylor-Britt, who has been feast (terrific vs. the Seattle Seahawks) or famine (struggled vs. the Los Angeles Rams).
This is just a buy on the Bengals, who looked like a different team last week in San Francisco. In the last two seasons, Joe Burrow has been one of the best QBs in the league during the second half (8-0 last year).
PICK: Bengals (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points
Raiders fire Josh McDaniels, Davante Adams unhappy in LV and Keyshawn Johnson previews key weekend matchups
Giants @ Raiders (4:25 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
This handicap is simple: I love to buy teams off the coach firing. The energy changes. The tension is gone.
There isn’t a ton of concrete data, but recent history suggests that firing a coach leads to wins or, more importantly, covering the spread.
The Giants are getting healthier, and their offense with Daniel Jones against this passive Raiders defense should have plenty of success.
But the vibes in Vegas make it seem like the playbook is going to be open. The offense will play loose and aggressive, as Josh McDaniels was being conservative, trying to hold onto his job.
Pick: Raiders moneyline (-125)
NFL Week 9 Picks: Saints, Browns and Falcons | Bear Bets
6.5 point TEASER
Saints -2, Browns -2.5, Panthers +9
Saints -8.5 to -2
In case Derek Carr tries to give the game away, or the Saints stall in the red zone (27th in the NFL) and settle for field goals — you only have to win by less than a field goal.
Browns -9 to -2.5
Clayton Tune, Arizona’s rookie starter, is likelier to give the game away than win it, but if DeShaun Watson vomits all over himself and the Browns eek out a win on a late field goal, you’re good.
Panthers +2.5 to +9
The Frank Reich revenge special. There’s some risk here as the Panthers offense improved last week — but not by much. It should, however, be able to roll against a bad Colts defense that has been shredded three weeks in a row.
Shane Steichen scares me, as the Colts offense is a machine, moving it easily against Cleveland and the New Orleans Saints the last two weeks.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX Sports, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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