Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills: Prediction, odds, picks

The Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3.5) over the Buffalo Bills (6-5). The Eagles have won four straight games. 

The Eagles defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 21-17 in their latest contest, while the Bills took down the New York Jets 32-6 in their Week 11 tilt. 

Can the Bills get a signature win this season, or will the Eagles continue to roll?

Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between the Bills and Eagles — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Sam Panayotovich. 

Eagles vs. Bills Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Philadelphia (-3.5) 
• Pick OU: Under (48.5) 
• Prediction: Philadelphia 26 – Buffalo 21

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sam Panayotovich

Bookmakers clearly respect Buffalo in this spot.  

That’s why a 9-1 Eagles team is only laying a field goal at home to a disappointing Bills team with five losses. The Bills still get plenty of respect from Vegas wise guys and their “A” game is good enough to beat anybody.

Philly keeps winning close games, and you certainly give the reigning NFC champs credit for finding ways to emerge with victories. But let’s not forget that the Eagles were out-gained by 100 yards on Monday night.

If the Bills protect the football, they’ll win outright.

PICK: Bills (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

How to Watch Philadelphia vs. Buffalo

• Game Date: Sunday, November 26, 2023
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
• Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• TV: Watch on CBS

Eagles vs. Bills Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Philadelphia has totaled four wins versus Buffalo.
• Buffalo has been outscored by 32 points in its last five tilts against Philadelphia.

Philadelphia Betting Info

• Philadelphia has played 10 games, posting six wins against the spread.
• When playing as at least 3.5-point favorites this season, the Eagles have an ATS record of 3-2-2.
• Philadelphia games this year have gone over the total in five out of 10 opportunities (50%).
• When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Eagles are 8-1, winning 88.9% of the time.
• When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -175 or shorter, Philadelphia has a 6-1 record (winning 85.7% of its games).
• The Eagles have a 63.6% chance to win this matchup, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Eagles Stats

Philadelphia’s Key Players

Offense

• Jalen Hurts ranks 10th in the NFL with 2,497 passing yards in 10 games this year, averaging 249.7 per game with a 68.5% completion percentage and 15 touchdowns against nine interceptions.
• He has added 345 rushing yards (34.5 per game) and nine touchdowns on the ground.
• A.J. Brown has 68 receptions (10th in the NFL) for 1,013 yards (second in the NFL) and six TDs. Through 10 games, he is averaging 6.8 catches and 101.3 yards per game.
• D’Andre Swift has 690 rushing yards (third in the NFL) with four touchdowns (69 yards per game across 10 games).
• Swift has picked up 33 receptions, 197 yards and one TD in the passing game.
• DeVonta Smith averages 4.8 receptions and 63.2 yards per game, and has 632 total receiving yards and 48 catches. He’s gotten 68 total targets, and has caught four touchdown passes.

Defense

• On the defensive side for the Eagles, Reed Blankenship has put up 60 tackles, two TFL, and two interceptions in 2023.
• Josh Sweat has 6.5 sacks (second on the Eagles) in addition to his six TFL and 28 tackles.
• Haason Reddick has collected 23 tackles, nine TFL, 8.5 sacks, and one pass defended.
• So far this season, Kevin Byard has 71 tackles and one interception. His tackle total leads the Eagles.

Buffalo Betting Info

• Buffalo has covered the spread four times this season (4-7-0).
• Buffalo games have gone over the total three times this year.
• The Bills lost the only game they’ve played as the underdog this season.
• Buffalo has not entered a game this season as a bigger underdog on the moneyline than the +145 odds on them winning this game.
• The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 40.8% chance of a victory for the Bills.

Bills Stats

Buffalo’s Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen has passed for 2,875 yards this year (to rank fourth in the NFL), with 22 touchdowns (first in the NFL) and 12 interceptions. He is completing 69.6% of his passes while averaging 261.4 yards per game and 7.5 per attempt.
• Allen has also rushed for seven touchdowns and 261 yards (second on the Bills).
• Stefon Diggs has 77 catches (third in the NFL) for 895 yards (seventh in the NFL) and seven receiving touchdowns (third in the NFL). He has been targeted 110 times and averages seven receptions per game in 11 games played.
• This season through 11 games, James Cook has churned out 688 rushing yards (leading the Bills and fourth in the NFL) and scored one rushing touchdown. He averages 62.5 yards per game and 5 per attempt (seventh in the NFL).
• Cook’s offensive output includes 27 receptions (2.5 per game) on 32 targets for 251 yards (22.8 per game) and two receiving touchdowns.
• Gabriel Davis has been targeted 55 times, resulting in 33 catches for 490 yards .

Defense

• In 2023, Terrel Bernard has recorded 99 tackles, six TFL, 3.5 sacks, and two interceptions over 11 games.
• Leonard Floyd’s stat sheet includes 24 tackles, seven TFL, and 9.5 sacks.
• Ed Oliver has six sacks (third on the Bills) as well as 11 TFL and 35 tackles in the 2023 campaign.
• Rasul Douglas has put up two TFL, 44 tackles, and three interceptions over 10 games.

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