Talk the Line: Early breakdown of NFL Week 12 odds

Every Sunday night, oddsmakers drop the upcoming week’s NFL betting lines, and if you are wondering if the opening spreads look accurate, we’ve got you covered.

Each week, FOX Sports Betting Analysts Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre will break down the opening numbers in this space and point out if they think the line is too low, too high or just right.

So, without further ado, let’s jump into their analysis for Week 12, including the big Thanksgiving Day matchups.

Thanksgiving Games

Packers @ Lions (-7.5)

Geoff Schwartz: Just right 

The Lions beat the Packers by 14 in Green Bay earlier this season, and while the Packers have improved since then, the Lions have not lost any steam. 

Detroit just won a clunker of a game by five, and I expect them to be ready on Thursday for this one. Just over a touchdown feels right.

Commanders @ Cowboys (-11)

Sam Panayotovich: Too high

The appetite to bet Dallas will be very real across America because “the Cowboys crush bad teams.” It’s still too many points to lay on a short week against a rival.

49ers (-7) @ Seahawks

Jason Mcintyre: Too low

We don’t know the extent of Geno Smith’s shoulder injury, and even though he came in on the final drive, it’s not realistic to expect him close to 100%. If Drew Lock has to see any time, SF rolls. 

The 49ers won last year’s three meetings by 20, 8, and 18 points.

Friday’s Game

Dolphins (-7.5) @ Jets

Jason McIntyre: Just right

The Dolphins looked sleepy off a bye against the Raiders, and the Jets can’t move the football. 

The Jets’ secondary has allowed only two TDs to receivers all season, which is the only reason this isn’t closer to 10.

Sunday’s Games

Patriots (-3.5) @ Giants

Jason McIntyre: Just right 

Before you automatically fire on the Patriots, just remember that Bill Belichick owns rookie quarterbacks. We don’t know who is starting for New England at QB, but the market may not move much if Bailey Zappe is under center.

Buccaneers @ Colts (-1.5)

Geoff Schwartz: Just right

The advanced stats on both these teams put them about even, so this number is giving Indy a slight bump for home-field advantage. The Bucs are back on the road after the 49ers beat them by 13, and the Colts are coming off a bye.

Saints @ Falcons (-1)

Sam Panayotovich: Just right

These two teams are equally disappointing. The Falcons have lost four of their last five games — all by one score — which is maddening. But I have zero interest in betting on Derek Carr, either. Both teams are 2-8 ATS. Pass.

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Panthers @ Titans (-4)

Geoff Schwartz: Just right

The Titans are not good, but the Panthers are even worse, and this line shows that. 

Anyone laying 4 points on the Titans isn’t in for a fun rooting experience, but you can’t make this a standard 3 with how poorly the Panthers are playing at the moment. 

Steelers (-1) @ Bengals 

Geoff Schwartz: Too high

I’d take the Bengals right now, even with Jake Browning as quarterback, and I think the sharps will pounce on them also. 

The Bengals are better nearly everywhere on the field outside of T.J. Watt and, I guess, Kenny Pickett. Their offense is broken, but Browning can manage to run it with the weapons they have.

Jaguars (-1) @ Texans

Jason McIntyre: Too low

This is a massive game with division ramifications, and the market is giving the Texans too much respect. Houston rolled in the first meeting; I expect Jacksonville to get revenge.

Rams (-1) @ Cardinals 

Sam Panayotovich: Just right

This is truly a coin flip. I have a feeling the Cardinals will close as a small favorite, so wait it out if you like the Rams. Cooper Kupp’s status is very important. 

Browns @ Broncos (-1.5)

Sam Panayotovich: Too low

The market is already starting to run, with some shops dealing Denver as a 2-point favorite. It’s possible we’ll see a “3” by Friday or Saturday. 

The Broncos have won four straight, and the Browns are starting a rookie quarterback. Buy back will come at +3, though. 

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Chiefs (-9.5) @ Raiders 

Geoff Schwartz: Too high

This number will not close near 10 because the Chiefs have routinely failed to cover big numbers on the road. 

If you like the Raiders, take this number now, as it’s likely to get steamed down at some point this weekend. 

Bills @ Eagles (-3.5)

Jason McIntyre: Too low

The Bills defense is vastly overrated due to injuries, and the Eagles should be able to move the ball with ease. Expect a high-scoring game, and Philadelphia to dominate the trenches.  

Ravens (-4) @ Chargers 

Sam Panayotovich: Too high

I feel like I write this joke every week, but the Chargers will be either up three or down three with two minutes to go. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they won outright.

Jason McIntyre is the co-host of The Herd and a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can find him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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